'11 Cropper Bowl Pick'em (Real Money, Not fake bitch Shit!)

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by Iron Mickey, Dec 18, 2011.

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  1. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey I'd take her out for some casadias

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    '11 Cropper Bowl Pick'em Tournament
    [​IMG]
    $200 Pot

    @Cheez​
    @Darkwing​
    @Bigsmooth33​
    @KillerNuts​
    @Kapono​
    @runthepound​
    @Steve​
    @JCA312​

     
    Last edited: Dec 18, 2011
  2. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    David

    I dont know why, but the tag didnt work for me in this topic. Either way, I'm glad we have got the spreadsheet thing settled.
     
  3. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey I'd take her out for some casadias

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    Looking good so far
     
  4. Wick36

    Wick36 Welcome to the Jungle

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    Looks like this one may go down to the end.
     
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  5. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey I'd take her out for some casadias

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    Yup...this one might come down to the National Championship
     
  6. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    I can't believe there's only one other guy going with LSU straight up in this pool... Weird.
     
  7. JFunk34

    JFunk34 Friends may come and go, but enemies accumulate.

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    There's a lot of smart guys doing this thing I guess. ;)
     
  8. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey I'd take her out for some casadias

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    I'm on a 7 game tear....can the Gmister keep it up!!??
     
  9. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Hopefully NW makes a comeback so that the answer is "no" :)

    no, 2 people did: You and Shaun
     
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  10. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    . Lol.

    One OTHER person. Meaning two TOTAL.
     
  11. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    god damn it... i can't read in this topic either :(
     
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  12. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    I will explain my rationale for my pick though:

    Simply put - what would piss more people off:
    a). A rematch of a game we have already seen with the same outcome - proving that the game was pointless
    b). A rematch of a game we have already seen with a different outcome - leaving the true national champion up for debate.

    I chose B, ergo I chose Alabama.

    I feel it's worth saying that this is the only game I used this kind of logic on :p
     
  13. Wick36

    Wick36 Welcome to the Jungle

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    I have LSU in my other one. I would've swapped it to LSU but we can't change our picks in this one.
     
  14. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    With only 13 games to go - we have a 3 way tie for the lead with 16 correct picks out of 22.
     
  15. Wick36

    Wick36 Welcome to the Jungle

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    And Auburn breaks the tie! ;)

    The tiebreaker might actually go into effect, lol. For straight up games, I think NIU/ASU will be most important since it looks like a pretty even split.
     
  16. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Yep, killer is bringing in the new year - but there are 6 guys within three points of him, so it will be very interesting the rest of the way.

    How about Shaun Mason - the only guy to get all 5 of today's games correct to put himself back in the running!
     
  17. Iron Mickey

    Iron Mickey I'd take her out for some casadias

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    Fucking GA.Tech....should be ashamed to blow that fucking lead.
     
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  18. Wick36

    Wick36 Welcome to the Jungle

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    I was very surprised they lost, didn't get to watch the game.
     
  19. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    Goddamn it... I'm outta this pretty much. :(
     
  20. Wick36

    Wick36 Welcome to the Jungle

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    Down to 3. :eek: I will be yelling at my TV during some of these games... lol.
     
  21. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    I almost had it pretty much locked up last night if Stanford could kick. Now it'll be coming down to the wire
     
  22. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Thanks scUM.
     
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  23. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Just did a little work regarding the probabilities of the remaining three competitors still alive in the hunt: Killer, Kapono, and Shaun.

    First, a note: Since all three have picked Arkansas to win the Cotton Bowl, I did not figure that game into any of the calculations. With that in mind, there are 16 different ways that this could play out:

    Killer's likelihood of winning: 56.25%
    Shaun's likelihood of winning: 25%
    Kapono's likelihood of winning: 18.75%

    In calculating this, I assumed that in the event of a tie each player had a 50% of winning that matchup. There were no ties between all three.

    Scenario Winners Killer Kapono Shaun
    1 Clem, Pitt, Ark St, LSU 23 22 25
    2 Clem, Pitt, Ark St, Bama 24 23 24
    3 Clem, Pitt, NIU, LSU 24 23 24
    4 Clem, SMU, Ark St, LSU 24 21 24
    5 WV, Pitt, Ark St, LSU 22 23 24
    6 Clem, Pitt, NIU, Bama 25 24 23
    7 Clem, SMU, Ark St, Bama 25 22 23
    8 Clem, SMU, NIU, LSU 25 22 23
    9 WV, Pitt, Ark St, Bama 23 24 23
    10 WV, Pitt, NIU, LSU 23 24 23
    11 WV, SMU, Ark St, LSU 23 22 23
    12 Clem, SMU, NIU, Bama 26 23 22
    13 WV, Pitt, NIU, Bama 24 25 22
    14 WV, SMU, Ark St, Bama 24 23 22
    15 WV, SMU, NIU, LSU 24 23 22
    16 WV, SMU, NIU, Bama 25 24 21
     
    Last edited: Jan 4, 2012
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  24. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Updated with West Virginia's victory taken into account:

    Killer's odds of winning: 43.75%
    Kapono's odds of winning: 37.5%
    Shaun's odds of winning: 18.75%

    Scenario Winners Killer Kapono Shaun
    1 Pitt, Ark St, LSU 23 24 25
    2 Pitt, Ark St, Bama 24 25 24
    3 Pitt, NIU, LSU 24 25 24
    4 SMU, Ark St, LSU 24 23 24
    5 Pitt, NIU, Bama 25 26 23
    6 SMU, Ark St, Bama 25 24 23
    7 SMU, NIU, LSU 25 24 23
    8 SMU, NIU, Bama 26 25 22
     
    Last edited: Jan 7, 2012
  25. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Clemson fucked me.
     
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