2011: Oregon State: The Hairy Beaver

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by ajtev21, Jul 1, 2011.

  1. ajtev21

    ajtev21 Walk On

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  2. Twister18

    Twister18 I aint got time to bleed!

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    LMAO! I had some good game titles when i played OSU and I was the USC Trojans!!
     
  3. ajtev21

    ajtev21 Walk On

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    Oregon State 20
    #21 Notre Dame 17

    A huge opening game for the new Pac 12 took place in South Bend, IN. The Irish started off with a bang, Michael Floyd went 101 yards for a kickoff return TD. On the ensuing drive, Oregon State QB Ryan Katz threw his first of three interceptions. ND was unable to capitalize, and Oregon State steadied the ship with a score of their own to even the game. ND had a quick 3 and out and Oregon State again scored after a solid ground attack from Ryan McCants. Dayne Crist then threw an interceptions and the next drive, and Oregon State capitalized with a FG. ND was able to score on the next drive, and then after a quick turnover by the Beavers ND added a FG to tie the game before the half.

    Oregon State and ND both struggled in the 3rd quarter to score. The quarter was marred by turnovers on both sides. After a back and forth struggle, Oregon State was able to get in position for a 49 yard FG and converted. After the Beavers got the ball back with 3:34 to go, it looked bleak for the Irish. The Beavers were unable to run the clock down, and ND got one more chance. After a 50 yard pass to Michael Floyd, the Irish had the ball at the 14 yard line. They were unable to convert Crist threw an INT, and the Beavers came away victorious.
     
  4. Twister18

    Twister18 I aint got time to bleed!

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    Nice win, what happened to your preview?
     
  5. ajtev21

    ajtev21 Walk On

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    Oregon State 12
    UCLA. 7

    A big opening PAC 12 matchup. UCLA started with a fumble on their own 20 yard line and the Beavers recovered. Oregon St could not capitalized on the turnover, and missed an early field goal. The teams traded punts and then UCLA put a drive together. UCLA ripped off an 18 yard run and went up 7-0. Oregon St could not cash in before the half and UCLA brought in a 7 point lead. The 3 rd quarter brought a long power drive from Oregon State. However they had to eventually punt. UCLA committed a crucial turnover and the Beavers' Ryan McCants punched in a 2 yard TD. After another trade of possession the beavers added a field goal. After the stout beaver defense held and the beaver offense committed a terrible turnover near the Bruin goal line, UCLA made a critical error. A missed block led to a safety for the Beavers. They held on and the Beavers won 12-7.
     
  6. timroy85

    timroy85 Walk On

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    ajtev21

    How come you never posted a season preview?
     
  7. ajtev21

    ajtev21 Walk On

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    Oregon State 26
    Arizona State 14

    A very good game in the epic struggle between timroy and I. Maybe someday when I have time I'll run through all the battles we've had with broken PS2 controllers and games (mostly my doing) at people's houses stemming from our games, but this one was a good one.

    After the opening Sun Devil drive stalled, the Beavers capitalized with an 82 yard play action strike to Markus Wheaton. Although the Beavers scored first, Ryan McCants was injured again for 2 quarters. Arizona State could not get much going in the way of offense in the 1st quarter; well, neither could the Beavers as both teams exchanged several punts and played to a 7-0 1st quarter score.

    The second quarter opened with Oregon State getting in field goal range, however, they missed, and turned it back over to ASU. The Sun Devils and Beaver both stood tall on defense, and the 2nd quarter looked much like the first, until we were under 2:00. Ryan Katz threw and interception and Eddie Elder was able to bring it to the house to get ASU on the board. On the ensuing drive, Katz again threw a costly pick, and Cameron Marshall made the Beavers pay as he scored with 31 seconds left in the half to make it 14-7 Sun Devils. Somehow, Katz recovered enough to navigate the Oregon State offense into FG range and the Beavers added 3 points as time expired in the half.

    The third quarter was quite as both teams played a field position game. Finally, the Beavers put a drive together, moved down to the 3 yard line, but the ASU defense held. Oregon State was forced to kick a FG and now trailed by just a point starting the 4th quarter.

    After ASU failed to move the ball deep in their own territory, Ryan Katz hooked up with Obum Gwachum for a 61 yard strike. The 2 point conversion failed and OSU had the lead back at 19-14. ASU was able to get a couple first downs, but eventually the Beavers forced a punt. With the Sun Devils forced to gamble a bit on defense, Markus Wheaton was able to be the ASU secondary and catch a 66 yard bomb for his second touchdown and what eventually would be the nail in the coffin. ASU mounted a drive back down the field but stalled at the Beaver goal line; the final: 26-14 Beavers.

    Ryan Katz finally stepped his game up going 8 for 19 for 305 yards and 3 TDs. Markus Wheaton caught 2 TD balls for 143 yards receiving. On defense, Andrew Seumalo had 4 sacks to help stiffle the Sun Devil offense.

    For ASU, Cameron Marshall had a TD on 12 attempts and 66 yards rushing. Eddie Elder was the top performer with a tackle and 2 INTs one returned for a TD.

    Up next, the Beavers welcome BYU to Reser Stadium. Arizona State will travel to Salt Lake City to play the University of Utah.
     
  8. ajtev21

    ajtev21 Walk On

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    The preview so many of you were asking for haha:

    One day, we will create a measure called the Quality To Respect Ratio (QTRR for short), and I have no doubt that Oregon State will rank at or near the top. The Beavers have been ranked for part of nine of the last 11 seasons, they have won at least eight games in six of the last eight years, and they have taken a fearless approach to scheduling everybody says they always want from major conference schools. In the past seven years, they have played at Boise State three times, at TCU (sort of -- it was at Jerry World), at Utah, at Penn State, at Cincinnati, at Louisville and at Fresno State. They take on comers of all size, and they take them on away from home, instead of aiming for a sure three non-conference wins.
    Last year the Beavers faced three teams that finished in the nation's top four (TCU, Oregon, Stanford) and four of the top nine (three away from home). Their reward? They finished 5-7 despite while fielding a Top 35 team. Overall, they rank 25th nationally in terms of four-year F/+ ratings, right between Oklahoma State and Utah; but their overall record in that span (33-20) pales in comparison to the 'Pokes (36-16) and Utes (42-10).
    So what exactly is the reward for playing the tough schedule we say we all desire? Oregon State got a pat on the back for taking on TCU and Boise instead of UTEP and Idaho (which would have netted them a 7-5 record and a bowl bid), but they also became a national afterthought, written off as mediocre and forgotten. With the power that human polls still carry in college football, and the general homogenous treatment of wins and losses -- if you win, you move up; if you lose, you move down; opponent matters little -- the respect you earn from building challenging schedules does not equally offset the risk of losing games against those schedules. What we desire and what we reward are very different. The money involved in scheduling home cupcakes and advancing to quality bowls is too good to pass up for most teams, and Oregon State's tale is as cautionary as it is respectable.
    By the way, this year the Beavers' non-conference schedule lightens up. They only have to host BYU and visit Wisconsin. Slackers.
    2010 Schedule & Results*

    [​IMG]
    If at any point in the last three years, you were asked which of the Rodgers brothers was most important, you'd have almost certainly picked Jacquizz over James in a heartbeat. And that would have been a good answer; Pocket Herculizz was an incredibly durable, strong, fun-to-watch running back, one who was crafty and elusive enough to prop up his line's run-blocking stats while receiving, at times, less-than-stellar blocking from his line.
    But in his absence last fall, older brother James very clearly established his own importance. He got hurt in the second quarter against Arizona, and the Beavers' offensive production absolutely plummeted.
    Oregon State Offense, First Five Games: 38.2 Adj. PPG
    Oregon State Offense, Last Seven Games: 25.2 Adj. PPG
    Oregon State's offense was nearly two touchdowns worse in Old Rodgers' absence, and after reaching 3-2 despite the brutal non-conference slate (even Louisville turned out to be a tough matchup), the Beavers limped home, losing five of seven to end the season (including a shocking, 17-point home defeat to Washington State). Rodgers' injury exposed some frightening receiver depth (problematic for an offense that really wants to pass), and while the offense wasn't nearly as poor as its raw stats suggested (when you take on six of the top 22 defenses in the country according to Def. S&P+, your raw stats are not likely to be too impressive), it wasn't good enough to make up for a defense that was, for the second consecutive season, average at best.
    Now, in 2011, the younger Rodgers brother is gone (Jacquizz declared early for the draft, which was probably a smart move considering how many hits his small frame has already taken; it's the same reason I was surprised when Oklahoma's Ryan Broyles didn't declare early), but the older one returns following a medical redshirt.
    Offense***

    [​IMG]


    Category S&P+ Rk Success
    Rt. Rk
    PPP+ Rk
    OVERALL 19 25 12
    RUSHING 23 35 16 Adj. Line Yards:
    PASSING 15 13 19 27
    Standard Downs 29 44 19 Adj. Sack Rate:
    Passing Downs 14 7 22 73
    Redzone 25 20 29


    Q1 Rk 26 1st Down Rk 11
    Q2 Rk 14 2nd Down Rk 18
    Q3 Rk 5 3rd Down Rk 44
    Q4 Rk 91

    Stats Versus Generalizations, Part MMMXLVI: Oregon State averaged just 24.4 points per game last year, good for 82nd in the country. But in taking on an absolutely brutal series of defenses, they performed at a level that would have produced a much healthier number of points against a normal schedule. Obviously this is a sign for optimism moving forward. As mentioned, the Beavers do still take on two tough non-conference foes in Wisconsin and BYU, but in terms of defense that is still a step down from TCU-Boise-Louisville.
    Stats Versus Eyeballs, Part MXVIII: Oregon State ranked 27th in Adj. Line Yards, while Jacquizz Rodgers' Adj. POE was a mediocre plus-1.7. The three-time all-conference back made something out of nothing many times, but he was not necessarily explosive enough (quick but not amazingly fast) to rack up the yards. This year, the Quizz Safety Net for the offensive line is gone; the line will have to help out the new starting back, be it senior Ryan McCants or sophomore Jovan Stevenson, quite a bit more than they helped Rodgers.
    Even with Jacquizz and without James (1,034 yards, 11.4 per catch, 72% catch rate in 2009) last year, Oregon State really wanted to pass. Quarterback Ryan Katz (2,401 yards, 6.8 per pass, 60% completion rate, 18 TD, 11 INT; 233 pre-sack rushing yards) put together a nice stat line, especially on passing downs. He proved himself to be a strong creator, and with better pass protection (the Beavers ranked 73rd in Adj. Sack Rate, though some of those sacks could have been due to Katz's improvisation; as I always say, your best quality is also the source of your worst quality) and a healthy James Rodgers, the Beavers' offense could be one of the more surprisingly productive units in the country. Of course, they'll still potentially need more production from receivers not named Rodgers; Markus Wheaton (660 yards, 12.2 per catch, 59% catch rate) and tight end Joe Halahuni (390 yards, 13.0 per catch, 63% catch rate) are solid possession options, but only Jordan Bishop (353 yards, 16.0 per catch, 56% catch rate) appears to offer a good level of explosiveness and upside.
    For what it's worth, the offensive line returns mostly intact and should take a nice step forward overall. Three-year starting center Alex Linnenkahl is gone, but just about everybody else returns, including three two-year (at least) starters: tackles Michael Phillip and Mike Remmers and guard-turned-center Grant Johnson all have at least 22 career starts. The line as a whole has now compiled 91 total starts, which makes them one of the more experienced units in the country. Now they just need to be experienced and good.
    Other tidbits:
    Defense

    [​IMG]


    Category S&P+ Rk Success
    Rt. Rk
    PPP+ Rk
    OVERALL 34 36 37
    RUSHING 29 49 28 Adj. Line Yards:
    PASSING 37 29 47 68
    Standard Downs 35 33 34 Adj. Sack Rate:
    Passing Downs 42 53 40 9
    Redzone 29 26 39


    Q1 Rk 49 1st Down Rk 35
    Q2 Rk 27 2nd Down Rk 32
    Q3 Rk 38 3rd Down Rk 57
    Q4 Rk 27

    One thing was certain in facing Oregon State in 2010: they were coming after you. They weren't always going to get you, but they were going to try. They attacked, attacked and attacked, especially on passing downs, which resulted in both tremendous sack rates and a copious number of oft-successful draw plays. Opponents ran quite a bit more frequently than normal on passing downs, and the reason was quite obvious.
    If the Beavers didn't get to the quarterback, their defense was only solid, not great. And as we see with the Adj. Pts. table above, they basically used two near-perfect defensive performances (against California and USC) to skew their overall averages a bit lower than they probably should have been.
    While it was capable of getting pushed around at times, the Oregon State defensive line was solid, thanks mostly to tackle Stephen Paea (32.5 tackles, 10.0 TFL/sacks, 4 FF, 2 PBU) and ends Gabe Miller and Dominic Glover (combined: 63.0 tackles, 15.5 TFL/sacks). Of that troika, only Glover returns; they lose some serious meat in Paea and Olander, and while Kevin Frahm (22.0 tackles, 4.5 TFL/sacks) is a decent tackle, he and Glover are going to need some help.
    The linebacking corps seemed to cover for the line well enough against the run, and without Paea, they will have to do so even more. Unfortunately, they must replace Dwight Roberson (70.0 tackles, 8.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 8 PBU) and Keith Pankey (43.5 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks), easily the two most productive linebackers on the team last year. Four LBs return who managed between 24.0 and 29.0 tackles -- Cameron Collins, Rueben Robinson, Tony Wilson and Feti Unga -- but it will be hard to avoid at least a temporary step backwards in both this unit and in the front seven as a whole.
    Other tidbits:
    • That Oregon State ranked 53rd in Passing Downs Success Rate+ despite strong sack rates suggests that they gave gigantic cushions to receivers on passing downs; that's not a sign of trust in your secondary. While four of the top six DBs return, perhaps the two best must be replaced. Safety Suaesi Tuimaunei (69.0 tackles, 5.0 TFL/sacks, 1 INT, 2 FF) and cornerback James Dockery (48.5 tackles, 4 INT, 5 PBU) both had strong stat lines, but there is hope in safeties like Lance Mitchell and Anthony Watkins and corners Brandon Hardin and Jordan Poyer.
    • After three years fielding a Top 35 (according to Def. F/+) defense -- including a fourth-place finish in 2007 -- the Beavers have regressed to 59th and 48th the last two years. Where has Mark Banker's D slumped the most? Primarily in success rates.

      Def. Success Rate+: second in 2007, ninth in 2008, 68th in 2009, 36th in 2010
      Def. Rushing Success Rate+: fourth, 28th, 71st, 49th
      Def. Passing Success Rate+: sixth, ninth, 68th, 29th
      Def. Standard Downs Success Rate+: first, fifth, 59th, 33rd

      Good success rates are typically a sign of aggression -- "bend-don't-break" defenses typically have poor success rates and solid PPP+ ratings -- but it appears that, perhaps because of personnel, a good portion of Oregon State's aggression has been misplaced the last two years. If there's a sign for optimism, it's that the plummet really occurred in 2009 with a slight rebound last fall. Of course, with what they're losing on defense, I can't really imagine they improve too much in this regard in 2011.
    Oregon State's 2010 Season Set to Music

    "A Hard Day's Night," by The Beatles
    "Hard Hitters," by Dilated Peoples
    "Hard Knock Life," by Jay-Z
    "Hard Livin', by Martha Redbone
    "Hard Times," by Ray Charles (or John Legend & The Roots)
    "Mr. Tough," by Yo La Tengo
    "Time Tough," by Toots & The Maytals
    "Tough Guy," by The Beastie Boys
    "Tough Mama," by Bob Dylan
    "Tougher Than It Is," by Cake
    Fun Stat Nerd Tidbit

    Here.
    Summary and Projection Factors

    [​IMG]
    Below is a small handful of projection and change factors most pertinent to the Football Outsiders' preseason projections you will find in this summer's Football Outsiders Almanac 2011.

    I respect the hell out of the job Mike Riley has done in his second stint at Oregon State -- the Beavers' eight winning seasons in the 2000s easily constituted their best decade since at least the 1960s, and Riley was responsible for either of those seasons -- and I'm going to assume he will once again put a Top 40-quality team on the field. But it's impossible to see them as a serious factor in the Pac-12 North with loaded Stanford and Oregon teams, and a complete lack of defensive depth, standing in their way.
    The schedule eases up, if only a tad (it still includes trips to Wisconsin, Oregon, Utah, Arizona State and California), but the team's potential is strong enough that bowl eligibility should certainly be back in the cards. I expect the offense to improve enough to offset defensive regression, but the combination of schedule and depth still probably only places their ceiling around eight wins or so.
     
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