2015 Rookie Draft: Studs & Duds

Discussion in '12th Man Football' started by LtJustice, Jan 28, 2013.

  1. LtJustice

    LtJustice QSF Commissioner

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    It is no secret that there are draft guides out there on the interwebs for CCM drafts in Madden 13. It should also be understood by everyone that use of such guides in 12th Man is expressly prohibited. We pride ourselves on the fact that our league is not only a sim play league, but also has a major focus on the team building aspect of running a multi-year franchise. The focus on the team building is the primary reason for doing the simmed seasons between each played season, to allow owners to really build their teams and manage their rosters. The use of a draft guide by an owner in our league to allow them to identify "blue chip" prospects, without putting in the effort in scouting, would provide that owner an unfair advantage, as well as would be in direct contrast to what we expect from our owners.

    With that being said, and after receiving numerous inquiries on the subject, we have decided that going forward we will be publishing a list of Draft Studs and Duds after each draft, utilizing the lists provided by such guides. We will be doing this with a dual purpose in mind. Primarily it will allow everyone in the league to see who struck gold (superstar development) and who struck out (slow development). But also, it should serve as a deterrent to anyone considering using such lists. Even with great scouting and a little bit of luck, for any one team to a land the superstars and high development guys consistently is highly unlikely.

    Without further ado:

    Studs & Duds
    2015 Rookie Draft


    Superstar Development


    Quick Development


    Slow Development

     
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  2. CHUNKNESS

    CHUNKNESS Commissioner Quality Simulation Football

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    Thanks, Jim. I think this is a GREAT informational tool to have and we will be posting these results for the future drafts to come!


    To expand on this, everyone should be aware that we are NOT to be using the draft guides published on the internet that exploit the superstars in each of the draft classes. Scouting is there for a reason. Use it or lose it.


    Things we will be looking for with each draft:
    • Owners reaching early in the draft or reaching far above draft projection for players with Quick or Superstar development. Sure it may happen once, maybe twice, but multiple counts by the same owner is grounds for implication.
    • Owners getting "lucky" with high development players at a frequency that far exceeds the average of the league (typically 2 or less).
    Just to clarify how we know if individuals are using a development draft guide:
    • There is no way to find Quick/Superstar development players through scouting except for scouting their development.
    • The probability that you spent 5K of points on players development rating and hit with a frequency that you "know who the good players are" is about the same as willing the lottery.
    If anyone drafts superstar development players with a good majority of their picks by using a draft guide, we will be able to tell. Shaun Mason has verified that there is no correlation between scouting awareness and whether or not a rookie is going to have superstar development.


    With that said, we trust you guys to be honest. There has been some suspicious activities in each of the drafts. Please do not make us remove you from the league for taking advantage of your fellow league members.


    Thank you for your anticipated cooperation!




    LtJustice
    redlishus
    CSteud
    hoodiii
    CaptMoe
    Juan Valencia
    thoov08
    Warhawk AKA dreadman
    dablakpope
    Casino
    saintsdave75
    ThaBayouChef
    Hulk_hagen_55
    coachmimz20
    thafuture3886
    Phenom
    PepperNY
    javy0472
    Gutcheck64
    Miki1369
    ferocious
    TwoTONS04
    CHUNKNESS
    cry_havoc
    Eazy E
    pittrocks43
    PAPER R1VAL
    Michael Overman
    Broncos218
    dmass
    AveryB
    lboogie
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
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  3. ferocious

    ferocious Bring it

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    Daam, and even with all my scouting I couldnt hit a Superstar....WTF..LOL, But I did hit some triples in the 3rd and 4th round according to this. Nice..lol
     
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  4. ThaBayouChef

    ThaBayouChef Walk On

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    iSPY some reeaachherrsss! ..... Seriously, this is a great way for everyone to keep an eye on this. Glad this is made available.
     
  5. redlishus

    redlishus PMFL Staff - El Guesser

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    Looks like the giants nailed their draft. Wowzer hes stacked.
     
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  6. thafuture3886

    thafuture3886 Power Rankings Analyst

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    Hmmmmm this is VERY interesting...
     
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  7. ThaBayouChef

    ThaBayouChef Walk On

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    What is T10??
     
  8. ThaBayouChef

    ThaBayouChef Walk On

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    Top 10...nvm
     
  9. Warhawk AKA dreadman

    Warhawk AKA dreadman Walk On

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    IMO..................yes..the G-men are stacked...................but I actually think the Giants had a pretty good draft..they did not reach for those players...yeah, the players he picked are on the list, but they went as projected...excluding the Center.....which there are never too many to choose from
     
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  10. ThaBayouChef

    ThaBayouChef Walk On

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    Yea I agree with that in regards to the Giants.
     
  11. redlishus

    redlishus PMFL Staff - El Guesser

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    True.
     
  12. CaptMoe

    CaptMoe Walk On

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    I think a key factor to look at is not just where a player was drafted but, who a team didn't draft when drafting a player.
    If a higher ranked player was passed up, I'd have to wonder why.
    I see a couple of reaches here: Browns grabbing a 7th Rd FB in the 3rd.
    49ers grabbing a 6th Rd DE in the 3rd.
    Colts taking a 5th Rd OLB in the 1st.

    However, I remember in previous drafts we used to have a spreadsheet put together by members of the league (sorry I can't remember exactly who used to do it. I did it once.) and published for everyone. I know this is different because of the Development trait. Just pointing out that we did something similar in the past...
     
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  13. thafuture3886

    thafuture3886 Power Rankings Analyst

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    I thinkg a lot of it has to do with guys needing certain positions and scouting the hell out of it. For example, I needed o line help so I scouted left tackle, right tackle and right guard almost exclusively(which showed in my other picks). And when the guys I wanted were drafted(thanks Doug!) I was forced to just basically pick bpa based on either guys I scouted minimally or bpa based on projections. Point being, I can understand guys reaching if they had a need at that particular position and scouted for it
     
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  14. Michael Overman

    Michael Overman Walk On

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    Transparency...ohhh I like
     
  15. ferocious

    ferocious Bring it

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    I agree with Curtis on this regard too Moe, I mean I scouted the shit out of CB's but couldnt afford to scout for projections as Doug mentioned above 5K xps. So fuck that. And even though my 1st round pick is not up there with the elite projected. Im sure my pick should of been gone like in the 4-5 rounds and I snagged him in the middle of the 1st round. But I loved his speed and coverage ratings so I picked him.

    So same goes for these guys, you can easily get lucky on getting one of the top guys if you specifically scout that position. But you also can always tell who has been getting inside info when they specifically get the top players mentioned above in different positions and specially in the same round, that should of been gone way later. And this is not to include T10 or early projected players as those are easy to pick. IMO.
     
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  16. redlishus

    redlishus PMFL Staff - El Guesser

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    I don't take projected round into consideration at all. If I scouted and found a player I like, but is EA's projected 6th round caliber, doesn't necessarily mean he's 6th round for me. I could have him 2nd round based upon how selections are going. EA projections are nice but they don't necessarily translate to how you value a player.

    As for reaches. There were only 3 FB in draft and I wanted to draft one and I would have early if he wasn't gone already. Don't see an issue with that.
     
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  17. Casino

    Casino Walk On

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    I think if you're trying to figure out the reaches than you have to look at a few factors. When a player was drafted (round), he's projection and what position. Meaning that certain positions will have a lot of talent there to choose from like HBs, WRs and CBs. So if you see someone take a 5th round projected player IMO is because of the development trait! No players attributes at the bottom half will be much better than higher projected players at the top half. The main difference in players overall ratings from the top half to bottom half is awareness. A lot of players at bottom half would be real good players if they had higher awareness to raise their overalls. So IMO when a player draft a bottom half player in the top half, its mainly because of the development trait because that is the only information that will make a bottom half player more attractive in the top half of the draft. I'm sure if this chart is done for our 1st two drafts it will tell even more on some individuals!!
     
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  18. Warhawk AKA dreadman

    Warhawk AKA dreadman Walk On

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    I agree with you all Moe..Curt...Troy .. Carl & Zo

    There's alot to take into consideration when drafting...I do remember the spreadsheets that we drafted off with all the numbers as well as the overalls that were given to us.

    As far as this years Madden....The player picked..even with the high development trait....he still has to perform to get that xp!

    Like Troy said....the projected scouting feature is nice....but just cause a guy is 6th round projected does not mean he's 6th round material. Especially if you scouted him..and he has all B's (The DE I picked in the 3rd round) as far as his main attributes are concerned that fit what you want out of a player. When I'm scouting....I look for certain traits...im not spending all my points on no damn development......I dont necessarily call it a reach...if you like the scouted attribute traits of a guy and he's not projected to go 5th or 6th and goes in the 1st.

    I had 38k points btw...........I was able to scout quite a few players...not revealing everything but enough to know that he could be my guy if I picked him. If a guy was a certain height at WR...scouted his speed 1st and if he was fast I would proceed to his catching and special catch & release & route running & maybe awareness. If he didnt make the cut with an A or B grade in speed...he's done getting my points. The same for RB's........As far as the DE that I picked/scouted....I looked for scheme as well as size...more than 300 lbs...I scouted...block shedding.. tackle .. awareness as well as other things.

    Now if he was projected to go in the 6th and I picked him in the 1st or 2nd round then hey..it might be a problem....but we cant do the finger pointing and assume that ppl are using the sheets just because of projections.
     
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
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  19. CHUNKNESS

    CHUNKNESS Commissioner Quality Simulation Football

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    I'll be the first to admit that I do NOT draft based on projected round. Just take my top 10 pick for example; a projected 4th round CB. I've been burned way too often in the past, so my strategy is to scout specific attributes for specific position(s) of need. In this case, I knew I wanted a CB and I specifically scouted MCV/ZCV and SPD. He had a rediculously high MCV rating for a rookie (90), so that was who I gunned for. If I've determined that the rookie is going to be a playmaker for my style of offense/defense, I'm going to make every effort to select that player before somebody else does regardless of projection.

    It would be unrealistic to assume every rookie will be selected at their projected round; particularly when certain positions have such few options. Those rookies at limited positions can easily be scouted when uncovering specific attributes. The only time reaching for rookies outside of their projected round will be an issue is if it is performed to attain superstar development players on multiple accounts. Trust me, it will stand out. Once or twice; no issue, but anything more than that and red flags are raised.

    There is no specific attribute which correlates with superstar development other than the development rating itself. So the probability of success at drafting a high volume of superstar development rookies is highly unlikely. It would probably be safe to say it is next to impossible. Sure, it will happen from time to time. But if it happens excessively in multiple drafts to an individual owner; the infractions will be open and obvious.

    We do not condone any finger pointing as that was not the purpose of presenting this information. Consider this to be more of an informative piece. Everyone is aware of the elephant in the room. We are just making it public. If anyone develops a history of accumulating superstar players with the majority of their selections, it will be uncovered through our draft summary as it is numerically impossible to draft a high volume of superstars with every selection.
     
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  20. Casino

    Casino Walk On

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    Here's a peek into my draft room decisions!

    1st round pick - MLB J. Robinson - I had inside information on this pick. As some of you know I run a league of my own and this year's draft class was actually my league's first draft class. He was one of the few names from that draft I knew would turn out to be good. When I saw him available at my pick I took him even though it wasn't my biggest need but one of my biggest desires!

    2nd round pick - RT D. Williams - This was actually the person I targeted for my 1st pick and was my biggest need this offseason. I let him slide a round for what I knew was a surer thing but wasn't gonna past him twice as I felt lucky to still get my 1st choice in the 2nd round.

    3rd round pick - J. Rolf - I had no hand in this pick because when my pick came up, I lost connection. When I logged back in, this was the pick it gave me. I was sour grapes at the time because I wasn't looking for a HB that talented. Maybe a backup or someone that could do returns. So finding out that he develops well has change by feelings about this pick and he will be giving an opportunity to start!! ;)

    4th round pick - I can't tell you who that is cause I delegated that pick!! Was ready to play 2K!! LOL

    5th, 6th & 7th round picks - All these picks were made after I put myself on auto!!
     
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  21. javy0472

    javy0472 Walk On

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    i used the spreadsheet and look what it got me .:p nothing..................................no seriously the guy i was aiming for was pooh and the fb we are all mentioned. like dougy and dread said we scout depending on our team needs....do we reach sometimes yes but thats because ther might be a small picking like the fb posotion in this draft. I think every1 is legit.......some get lucky some dont. with that being said cant wait to sim this season and move to next season by far the best madden ever........the only downfall they fixed the salary cap bug too late it would have been more intersting with that feature.
     
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  22. CaptMoe

    CaptMoe Walk On

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    All excellent points/observations...
     
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  23. CHUNKNESS

    CHUNKNESS Commissioner Quality Simulation Football

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    I'm all for starting over... ;)
     
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  24. thafuture3886

    thafuture3886 Power Rankings Analyst

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    I'll put an end to this right now......









    IF ANYBODY THAT HAS A ROOKIE HIGHLY RATED WITH SUPERSTAR DEVELOPMENT, YOU MUST TRADE THAT PLAYER TO THE CARDINALS IMMEDIATELY!

    Problem solved (y)
     
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  25. thafuture3886

    thafuture3886 Power Rankings Analyst

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    I still feel starting over would have been better because we could have experienced everything within the CCM, but i understand why we didn't
     
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