2018 Round 1 Draft Analysis

Discussion in 'The Dugout - OOTP Online League' started by PAgamer07, Jan 26, 2013.

  1. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Time to take a pick by pick at the 2018 Amateur Draft and give some grades on the picks. Agree to disagree with my assessment.

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    SP Tucker Millsap

    Easily the best Starting Pitcher available in the draft Millsap is the real deal. With 4 + pitches, ++ movement, potential and control there are not a lot of flaws with Millsap. He adds 96 MPH Velocity and a 70% GB rate to a high endurance and durability. He is smart, and already well developed for a 20 year old.

    Grade: A+

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    CL Jimmy Dillon

    I love Dillon as a Closer. He has ++ Control, Movement and Stuff with an 83% GB rate. Although he only throws a Sinker and a Curveball, both have max potential. The only negative about this pick? That you take a Closer #2

    Grade: B

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    CL Matt Adams

    Another great reliever that comes in with :4stars:potential. With the sudden firing of the GM due to a prolonged vacation, the GM turned to Whitey Herzog's words of wisdom for this pick. ""If you don't have outstanding relief pitching, you might as well piss on the fire and call the dogs."

    Grade: D

    CL Freddie Brown

    This Closer was rated a little higher, but still another dumb pick. What was that Whitey? "We need three kinds of pitching: left handed, right handed, and relief."

    Grade: D+

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    3B Jimmy Broaca

    The Yankees went with the hometown kid here out of the Bronx. A no-nonsense, tough as nails guy who works hard. Broaca plays + defense and has ++ Power and Contact. At 22 years old he may be a little behind the development curve, but I still like this pick and kudos to the Yankees for grabbing a guy from the Bronx.

    Grade: A

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    SP Ivan Martinez

    This was a risky pick for the Pirates. Martinez is highly developed already, and will start his Pirates career in AA or AAA most likely. Solid Work Ethic and Intelligence he will work hard. The question is will he stay healthy? Scouts grade his injury history as "Frail". If he stays healthy? He's a solid pick. 3 + pitches, left handed and + Control, Movement and Stuff.

    Grade: B

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    LF Rob Johnson

    This was the most intelligent CPU pick so far in Round 1 and I like this pick. Johnson has ++ Speed and + Contact, Power, Arm and Defense. He is also a lefty, which increases his value. If he has a downside it is that he is a bit lazy, and 21 years of age, really needs to work hard to develop quickly.

    Grade: A
     
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  2. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]

    2B Jeffrey Bowers

    Interesting pick this early in the draft. There were far better players available, and it's debatable if there aren't better 2B available. Solid contact and power and a guy who works hard and doesn't strike out as much. But his eye is very underdevloped and he may not be very patient at the plate. His fielding leaves a lot to be desired, and at this point he is a defensive liability at 2B. At onloy 17, he has time to improve his fielding but at this point, I dont like the pick.

    Grade: C

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    CF Lewis Brown

    One of the best hitters available in the draft, I really like Brown. Another 5 tool guy with solid ratings across the board and what really stands out is his power/eye combo. This kid will mash the ball with the best of them and if he doesn't see anything he likes, will draw a walk. Really good pick here, and if there is any negative, it's that he is a righty.

    Grade: A
     
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  3. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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    Analysis for pick 10:

    You idiots let JFace907 get a guy who should've gotten serious consideration at 1 all the way down at 10. Huuuuuuuuuuuuuuuge get for the Indians. Lets call it an A++++++++++++
     
  4. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]

    CF Jared Wallace

    The best hitter in the draft falls all the way to #10 and Justin made a great pick here. Most teams ahead of him drafted for need, not BPA and Wallace was definitely the best player available. Much more complete than Lewis Brown who went before him, Wallace is the total package. He hits, hits for power, fields well, throws and can fly. His personality and intangibles are all graded as average, so... if that's a negative, who cares

    Grade: A+

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    3B Bud Poole

    Very interesting choice here, and one I am not so sure about... Of all the hitters still on the board, there are several left with better contact and power potential. Defense can be considered average and he has no speed to speak of. I understand the pick, but feel that the were better players available here. If his contact potential slips even the slightest, he becomes a .225 hitter.

    Grade: C

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    MR Ken Smith

    What is it with the CPU taking relievers? Yes I realize there are not many good bullpen arms out there, but you don't take a guy like Smith in the 1st round. He's a good looking pitcher, but I wouldnt take him this high.

    Grade: D

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    LF Jarred Clewes


    I really like this Clewes kid and this was a great pick by Atlanta. Although he is excellent in LF defensively, his range and speed are better served in CF. I am sure Atlanta will try to groom him as a CF in the future. He is one of the most patient hitters in the draft pool and adds speed and great contact hitting ability. The only downside to the kid is his lack of power.

    Grade: A
     
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  5. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]


    RF Juan Davila

    A safe pick here for the Angels outside of his age. The 17 year old needs to work on his fielding, and at this time grades highest as a Right Fielder. Very good hitting potentials and + speed should make him a solid player if he develops. The only thing that may hold him back are his lack of drive or his intelligence. Overall though, a nice pick.

    Grade: B+

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    LF John Ward

    At already 22 years of age, the Mets have to hope Ward develops quickly. He already hits RHP well, but his splits against lefties are awful. He really needs to work on this to stay in the lineup. He does have very good plate discipline and doesn't strike out as much. He is a bit slow on the bases and may be a liability in LF. It's possible he transitions into a 1B.

    Grade: B-

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    C Javier Medina

    For their second pick in the 1st round, the A's took the best hitting catcher available and as is the case with the Poole pick, I don't like this one. Although his batting skills are stellar, where will he play? At 17 years of age, he has a lot of time to develop behind the plate, but with his peripherals I just don't see that happening. At this point in his career, he should move to 1B or DH. The kid can mash the ball, and has a great eye. But was he a good pick here?

    Grade: C

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    SP Takechi Ogawa

    There is a lot to like about this pick. I am really surprised Baltimore went pitching in the 1st round with the HR first philosophy, but no matter. At this point in the draft Ogawa and Calhoun were the best SP left. Raj chose Ogawa due to his upside I am sure. He has a 6 pitch arsenal and tops out at 94 MPH on his fastball. Although his movement is already well developed, in Camden, he may give up his share of HR. His control will offset that somewhat, and he should be a solid starter. Of concern is his advanced age and inability to get lefties out. I feel he will be a late bloomer and we should see him in the bigs by 25 at the latest.

    Grade: B
     
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  6. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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    Never ever underestimate my love for Asian imports. Wei-Yin showed me the light.
     
  7. Fmode11

    Fmode11 MVP

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    Almost to the Tigers... when we going to see the rest??? Great work PA
     
  8. Timpegoose

    Timpegoose Walk On

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    Asian imports are legit. Su Min Jung and Jae-Hoon Ha are great.
     
  9. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    I'm really baffeled by the CPU picks.. some of those were pretty terrible. The Rockies are the only CPU team that had a decent draft.
     
  10. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]

    LF David Arias

    I don't like this pick very much considering the talent still available. Arias is just out of high school, and is incredibly underdeveloped outside of his speed. He is certainly one of the fastest players in the draft, but will that help him? Right now he needs a lot of growth at his position to be able to field competently. In addition, his batting potentials are not very good. Players with a similar skillset (although not as balanced) were being picked much later in the draft. With a 50 contact potential and 50 eye potential, one "lump" and his hitting career is over.

    Grade: D

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    LF Chris Jacobs

    Although not as speedy as Arias who was picked just ahead of him, Jacobs is still very quick on the bases. He is also a bit more developed defensively. But most importantly he is rated a 60 in contact and adds in 65 power. This late in the draft, there aren't the stud prospects available, but Jacobs should be a solid hitter if he develops. With a "low" work ethic, he needs some work, but should be a decent hitter in 4-5 seasons.

    Grade: B-

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    SP David Calhoun

    The final SP available from the "Big 4" in the 2018 amateur draft fell all the way to #20. A pretty high risk pick here, but with a lot of seasoning, he could be an ace. He has an impressive 70% GB rate and 65 movement. He's also a lefty and can really be considered a "junkballer". He has great potential on his slider and curveball, and has a very weak changeup. He is only 17, but has a lot of growing to do before he is ready.

    Grade: B-

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    SS John Mason

    Mason is another high school kid, but probably the best defensive infielder who can hit in the draft. He also has excellent speed and should be a threat on the bases. He is definitely a contact hitter, and won't draw a lot of walks or even hit for power. A prototypical short stop, and if he develops should be a solid player.

    Grade: C+
     
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  11. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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    There weren't 4 great pitchers in this draft, there were 3. Genocide has an awesome nickname, but he is not one of them.
     
  12. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    I didnt say great pitchers. I said Big 4. Meaning 4 that were clearly the best ones. Everyone else was a pretty big drop off.
     
  13. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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    There was a pretty big dropoff from Ogawa to Genocide. He wasn't even ahead of a couple guys who went in the 2nd round on most draft boards.
     
  14. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    There was a pretty big drop off after Hillsap tbqh, who are we kidding. ;)
     
  15. Timpegoose

    Timpegoose Walk On

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    Millsap is ridiculous. Jeff Toms is going to turn into a superstar in Atlanta too, right ryalaman ? :)
     
  16. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    Dont worry, Millsap will be a 1* prospect in no time.
     
  17. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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    Toms will be, and he's much better than Calhoun. I also hate you.
     
  18. Confucius Rex

    Confucius Rex Walk On

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    I will defend my mediocre picks by saying that all the better players had 'extremely hard' signability.
     
  19. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    If you give them what they want in negotiations they accept. It's if you try to low ball them you might have issues
     
  20. Confucius Rex

    Confucius Rex Walk On

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    I guess I'm just stingy is all.

    Anyway, I did a little analysis of my own looking at the post-draft potential stars of the players that each team picked. It's not a perfect system, but it's the system we've got.

    The teams who got the most potential stars total out of the draft were the following:
    1. Baltimore - 23.5 Pot. Stars
    2. Kansas City - 20.5 Pot. Stars
    3. Seattle - 20.5 Pot. Stars
    4. Miami - 20 Pot. Stars
    5. Oakland - 19.5 Pot. Stars
    Of course, all teams didn't have an equal number of picks so here's the teams with the best averages.
    1. Chicago White Sox - 3.5 Pot. Stars
    2. Balitmore - 2.93 Pot. Stars
    3. Miami - 2.85 Pot. Stars
    4. Detroit - 2.83 Pot. Stars
    5. Oakland - 2.78 Pot. Stars
    Now, who did the worst total:
    1. Washington - 4.5 Pot. Stars
    2. Chicago Cubs - 6.5 Pot. Stars
    3. St. Louis - 7 Pot. Stars
    4. Cincinnati - 9 Pot. Stars
    5. Texas - 9 Pot. Stars
    The worst averages are the same as the worst totals so I won't bother with those. This clearly isn't that deep an assessment but it's something to think about.
     
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  21. KnightNoles

    KnightNoles Learn to Compete

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    That is what happens when you think you need one pitcher to send you over the hump and the rug is pulled out from under you. Season sucks, don't have a first and second round pick...

    :mad:

    :(
     
  22. JohnnyClutch

    JohnnyClutch They only hear my truth

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    I'm liking these stats for the Miami draft.
     
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  23. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]

    2B Dan Wilson

    This is a tough pick to grade. Wilson has great potential, but the problem is that he is already 23 years old. You like to have your prospects debut by 25 at the latest, and I am not sure Wilson will be able to develop enough by then. A solid gap hitter should play well in Miami, but his speed may limit some of those extra base hits. Defensively, I don't think he will ever be a great defender, and his low arm strength limits his double play ability. He has a decent eye, and + contact, but the debate is out on this kid.

    Grade: C-

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    SP Keon-Chae Chon

    Hate this pick in the first round. Yeah he is a lefty, yes he has solid pitches. But if you can't get them over the plate, they do you know good. His control potential tops out at 45 and he is going to be a liability on the mound.

    Grade: F

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    1B Raul Gonzalez

    Gonzalez is one of the best power hitters in the draft, something the Giants can always use. He also has + contact and a decent eye. Defensively, he needs a lot of work, but at only 18 he should grow in his role. He has very good peripherals and I expect him to be a good player.

    Grade: B


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    C Shane Mathis

    The second catcher drafted is an interesting choice for Seattle. Although defensively he is a bit better than Medina, his offense isn't nearly that good. He has plus contact and gap hitting ability, but will struggle to draw walks. Certainly a different type of hitter at the catcher position. He is very intelligent, which I believe will help him call a good game. Just not sure how to grade him.

    Grade: C

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    SP Pat Hickman

    The 17 year old high school pitcher is projected to throw one of the best sinkers in the game. His 75% GB rate is off the charts, and as long as he can harness his control he should be a decent SP. I also love his defense on the mound and the ability to go very deep in games. He is almost Greg Maddux like, but has a long journey in the minor leagues to prove himself. Lastly, he needs to improve his changeup. If he doesn't, it may be tough for him to stick around for awhile.

    Grade: B

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    CL Francisco Rodriguez

    Another closer goes in the first round, but this one is very late and actually a pretty decent pick. This kid throws hard and tops out at 101 MPH. His best pitch is a cutter, and I honestly have never seen anyone get that sort of velocity on a cut fastball. ++ stuff and + control makes this kid a player to watch in the minors.

    Grade: C+
     
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  24. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Just an FYI... Stars take a lot into account. Exceptional Speed, Hitting, and defense are all factored in. Guys with poor hitting ability but speed and defense can have more stars than a great hitter with little speed or defense.
     
  25. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]

    SP Luis Rosado

    Well this is interesting... Perhaps the Orioles reached a bit with this pick? They took a SP with their first pick in the round, and took another one later. Has the philosophy in Baltimore changed, or did Raj not see any other good players available? In my opinion, the Orioles were intrigued by the knuckleball. There aren't many knuckleballers out there, and Rosado has a good one. Unfortunately... that's all he can throw competently. His fastball tops out at 83 MPH, and he has no real strikeout potential, and quite honestly is going to struggle to keep the ball in Camden Yard. A control specialist without a fastball is interesting. Don't like this pick and I have added Rosado to my watchlist.

    Grade: D

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    RF Pedro Serna

    This is a pretty risky pick for Detroit, but this late in the draft it makes sense. A left handed power hitter, Serna has some of the best power left this late in the draft. He has + contact, and a decent eye. He has little to no speed and his range in the outfield is minimal. Serna was drafted purely for power, and if he develops should be an ok hitter. Unfortunately at 21 years old he is a bit lazy and underdeveloped.

    Grade: C

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    1B Jose Navarro

    Eh... I don't like this pick. There is one big attribute you want out of your first baseman and that is power. Navarro has none. In fact, he is probably going to be better with the glove than he is smashing the ball. He is a gap hitter who doesn't strike out very much. Just don't like him at first base, or in the first round. This guy could have gone as late as the 3rd round.

    Grade: F

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    3B Angel Alomar

    This is a better pick than the one before it, but still would rather have more power out of my corner IF positions. Defensively, Alomar will be a solid contributor and on the bases he adds a little speed. He is a smart, hardworking 20 year old and should be an ok hitter, but wont hit for power at all.

    Grade: C-

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    LF Kent Robertson

    Of the several picks before this one, Robertson is the one I like the best. He has and excellent power/eye combination and adds solid contact. He is a right handed hitter and should thrive in Rodgers Center and is decent in LF. He is only 17, and straight out of high school. Of the high schoolers picked in the 1st round, he is the least developed and we can only hope he improves his work ethic. If he doesn't he may stall in the minors. If not for his age, and his underdeveloped abilities, he would get an A.

    Grade: B

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    CF Ambrose Daughtery

    THe final pick in the first round goes to the defensive stud Ambrose Daughtery out of Arkansas. Ambrose is first and foremost a speedster, but adds a great glove to the mix. His power potential will be interesting to watch, and he should have a projected triple slash of around .250/.300/.480 . Known primarily for the glove, speed and top end power, his problem will be getting on base. At the CF position, I like his abilities.

    Grade: C+
     
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