Yeah, you have to be successful in ~70% of steal attempts for them to really be worthwhile, statistically.
There are actually some really easy regressions you can run to determine the projected breakeven rates based on HR rates and some other stuff that I did for fun awhile back. I should find those.
With Domingo dead with a CEI and Kingwell basically becoming a glove only guy after 4 straight years of 6+WAR seasons (thanks OOTP), I don't think these predictions are too far off for my team.
Spring Training Injury Report: Monday, April 1st, 2030 Cleveland Indians: SP Juan Pineda was injured . The Diagnosis: flu-like symptoms. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. Saturday, March 30th, 2030 Kansas City Royals: Ken Bowman has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 1-2 weeks. Friday, March 29th, 2030 Baltimore Orioles: SP Esteban Aguilar was injured . The Diagnosis: sinus infection. He's expected to miss about 3 days. Tuesday, March 26th, 2030 San Francisco Giants: MR Ellis Tomasiewic was injured while punching a wall during a fight with his girlfriend. The Diagnosis: undisclosed injury. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks. Detroit Tigers: MR Dustin Wheeler was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: strained forearm. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks. Texas Rangers: CF Italo Fattori was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: sprained thumb. He's expected to miss about 5-6 weeks. Monday, March 25th, 2030 Houston Astros: LF Brendan Randolph was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: torn thumb ligament. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks. New York Yankees: CF Jose Leon Jr. was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip flexor strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 5 days. Tampa Bay Rays: CF Takahashi Suzuki was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: back tightness. He's expected to miss about one week. Los Angeles Dodgers: SP Brian Walker was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: back spasms. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Chicago Cubs: RF Alec Owens was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: separated shoulder. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks. Sunday, March 24th, 2030 Pittsburgh Pirates: SS Chad Moore was injured . The Diagnosis: conjunctivitis. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Boston Red Sox: 2B Don McMillan was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: bruised toe. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Houston Astros: SS Deven Marrero was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: sore shoulder. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks. Chicago Cubs: RF Adam Burks was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained back. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. Miami Marlins: SP Oliver Medina was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild abdominal strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Saturday, March 23rd, 2030 San Francisco Giants: SP Sergio Solís was injured while sliding on the tarp during the rain at practice. The Diagnosis: separated shoulder. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks. Texas Rangers: RF Howard Bartelot was injured . The Diagnosis: allergic reaction. He's expected to miss about 4 days. Oakland Athletics: MR Zier de Haer was injured . The Diagnosis: dizziness and nausea. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Houston Astros: CF Phil Davidson was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: fractured hand. He's expected to miss about 5-6 weeks. Tampa Bay Rays: SP David Taylor was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: strained hamstring. He's expected to miss about 3 months. San Francisco Giants: 2B Dennis Latour was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: back soreness. He's expected to miss about 3 days. Cincinnati Reds: SP Fernando Pérez was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: forearm stiffness. He's expected to miss about 4 days. Cincinnati Reds: C Francisco Reyna was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip strain. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks. Chicago Cubs: 2B Dave Smith was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: thumb contusion. He's expected to miss about one week. Friday, March 22nd, 2030 Kansas City Royals: CF Daron Hensley was injured . The Diagnosis: viral infection. He's expected to miss about 3 days. Seattle Mariners: 3B Artie Webb was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: mild calf strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. San Diego Padres: MR Fabien Cloarec was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: dead arm. He's expected to miss about 6 days. Pittsburgh Pirates: LF Dean Wamboldt was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained groin. He's expected to miss about 4-5 weeks. Thursday, March 21st, 2030 Seattle Mariners: MR Gabriel Ramos was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: heel soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Cincinnati Reds: LF Francisco Gonzáles was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: quadriceps soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Philadelphia Phillies: MR Winston Dickso was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild oblique strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. St. Louis Cardinals: SP Esteban Durán was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: torn flexor tendon (elbow). He's expected to miss about 14 months. Chicago Cubs: MR Ilari Bregonzi was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 1-2 weeks. Wednesday, March 20th, 2030 New York Yankees: 3B Jimmy Broaca was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: elbow inflammation. He's expected to miss about 4-5 weeks. New York Mets: LF Nelson Hernandez was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: sprained elbow. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks. Miami Marlins: 3B Will Griggs was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: fractured foot. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks. Tuesday, March 19th, 2030 Kansas City Royals: CL Ken Bowman was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: rotator cuff strain. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks. Minnesota Twins: MR Luis Reyes was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: forearm soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. St. Louis Cardinals: LF Martin Frizell was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: wrist tendinitis. He's expected to miss about 1-2 weeks. Milwaukee Brewers: LF Hal Hoffman was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: knee tendinitis. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last one week. Los Angeles Dodgers: RF Leonard Watkins was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: strained oblique. He's expected to miss about 1-2 weeks. Milwaukee Brewers: RF Luis Pérez was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: bruised elbow. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Monday, March 18th, 2030 Minnesota Twins: SP Carlos Vargas was injured . The Diagnosis: food poisoning. He's expected to miss about 2 days. Los Angeles Angels: 1B Larry Lewis was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last one week. Los Angeles Angels: SP Nick Heard was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: surgery to remove bone spur (elbow). He's expected to miss about 4 months. Pittsburgh Pirates: 3B Brian Lawson was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained groin. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks. Cincinnati Reds: CF Ambrose Daugherty was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: strained rib cage muscle. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks. Cincinnati Reds: DH Pablo Sandoval was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained abdominal muscle. He's expected to miss about 4-5 weeks. Sunday, March 17th, 2030 Tampa Bay Rays: LF Rafael Cruz was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: bone bruise (wrist). He's expected to miss about 3-4 weeks. Toronto Blue Jays: RF Thomas Wilkerson was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: fractured finger. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks. Toronto Blue Jays: SP Andrew Faulkner was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: finger blister. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 5 days. Cincinnati Reds: SS Mike Sloan was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: forearm cramp. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Los Angeles Dodgers: 3B Jonas Bader was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained abdominal muscle. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks. Arizona Diamondbacks: SS Steve Lewis was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: mild calf strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Saturday, March 16th, 2030 Chicago White Sox: CF John Holliday was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained hamstring. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks. New York Yankees: SS Richard Moore was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: separated shoulder. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks. Minnesota Twins: MR Greg Puffer was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: shoulder tendinitis. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks. Friday, March 15th, 2030 Seattle Mariners: SS Michael Reed was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: strained oblique. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks. Tampa Bay Rays: MR Shawn Fitzgerald was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild oblique strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Boston Red Sox: CF Tommy Morris was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: sprained wrist. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks. San Diego Padres: MR Gary Dixon was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 3 months. St. Louis Cardinals: SP Esteban Durán was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: back spasms. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. Milwaukee Brewers: MR Horace O'Toole was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Wednesday, March 13th, 2030 Toronto Blue Jays: José Ybarra has suffered a setback in his recovery. He is not expected to recover for another 3 months. Baltimore Orioles: CF Ricardo Rivera was injured being hit by a pitch. The Diagnosis: bruised toe. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. Tuesday, March 12th, 2030 Baltimore Orioles: SS Hau Hung was injured while playing fetch with his dog. The Diagnosis: hamstring soreness. He's expected to miss about one week. Detroit Tigers: LF Michael Dahrendorf was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: bone bruise (knee). He's expected to miss about 6 weeks. Houston Astros: SP Osman Gutierrez was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sore back. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Philadelphia Phillies: 2B Carlos Mendoza was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: strained oblique. He's expected to miss about one week. Pittsburgh Pirates: 2B Dan Wilson was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: dislocated finger. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Milwaukee Brewers: RF Rich Courtney was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: shoulder tendinitis. He's expected to miss about 8 weeks. Monday, March 11th, 2030 Detroit Tigers: SP Gerardo Franco was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 3 months. Baltimore Orioles: CF Ricardo Rivera was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: mild hamstring strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. New York Yankees: MR James Stroud was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained elbow. He's expected to miss about 2-3 weeks. Miami Marlins: MR Aroldis Chapman was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sore shoulder. He's expected to miss about 3 days. Los Angeles Dodgers: LF Rob Johnston was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: quadriceps strain. He's expected to miss about 2 weeks. Sunday, March 10th, 2030 Minnesota Twins: RF Jon Alexander was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: sore elbow. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 4 days. Houston Astros: C Vicente Encarnación was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: oblique strain. He's expected to miss about 1-2 weeks. Boston Red Sox: CL Francisco Ríos was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: wrist soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 1-2 weeks. Miami Marlins: 2B Frank Austin was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: fractured ankle. He's expected to miss about 3 months. Saturday, March 9th, 2030 Texas Rangers: 1B José Costa was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: calf soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. Kansas City Royals: CL Ken Bowman was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. Detroit Tigers: RF Nomar Mazara was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: fractured foot. He's expected to miss about 3-4 weeks. Detroit Tigers: SP Andy Paton was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: torn flexor tendon (elbow). He's expected to miss about 8-9 months. Houston Astros: MR Carlos González was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild abdominal strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. Cleveland Indians: SS Dan McNeil was injured in a collision at a base. The Diagnosis: dislocated finger. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. Milwaukee Brewers: 3B Roscoe Gilroy was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 6-7 weeks. Friday, March 8th, 2030 Texas Rangers: CL Luis Peña was injured when his girlfriend beat him up. The Diagnosis: bone bruise (wrist). He's expected to miss about 2 weeks. Milwaukee Brewers: SP Dave Hutchison was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: forearm soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 6 days. Milwaukee Brewers: 1B Larry Arrington was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: hip flexor strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 weeks. Washington Nationals: DH Lewis Brown was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: broken nose. He's expected to miss about 5 days. St. Louis Cardinals: MR Curt Carter was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: hamstring strain. He's expected to miss about 7 weeks. Thursday, March 7th, 2030 Kansas City Royals: SS Sean Beck was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: strained quadriceps. He's expected to miss about 4 weeks. Seattle Mariners: RF Paul Jones was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: torn quadriceps. He's expected to miss about 3 weeks. Tampa Bay Rays: CF José Ávila was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: fractured ankle. He's expected to miss about 4 months. Philadelphia Phillies: MR Ed Hunt was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: partially torn labrum. He's expected to miss about 7 weeks. Wednesday, March 6th, 2030 Kansas City Royals: CF William Armstrong was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks. Minnesota Twins: SP Tom Watson was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: back tightness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Cincinnati Reds: DH Pablo Sandoval was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: knee contusion. He's expected to miss about 5 days. Tuesday, March 5th, 2030 Detroit Tigers: MR Ray Hughes was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: sprained ankle. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 3 days. Monday, March 4th, 2030 Seattle Mariners: CF Alberto Trejo was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: torn quadriceps. He's expected to miss about 5 weeks. Sunday, March 3rd, 2030 Seattle Mariners: LF Juan Cruz was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: sprained thumb. He's expected to miss about 6 weeks. New York Yankees: MR Earl Gibson was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild shoulder strain. He's expected to miss about one week. St. Louis Cardinals: MR Leo Johnston was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: finger blister. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Saturday, March 2nd, 2030 Los Angeles Angels: MR Mark Watkins was injured . The Diagnosis: flu-like symptoms. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 1 day. Tampa Bay Rays: MR Floyd Hill was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: heel soreness. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. Baltimore Orioles: LF Isoruko Takeuchi was injured while running the bases. The Diagnosis: sore knee. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last one week. Colorado Rockies: SP Rob Carig was injured while pitching. The Diagnosis: mild oblique strain. This is a day-to-day injury expected to last 2 days. San Francisco Giants: 2B Tony Cook was injured while throwing the ball. The Diagnosis: torn UCL (Tommy John surgery). He's expected to miss about 7-8 months.
Not to mention David Taylor is out for 3. Also: Texas Rangers: CL Luis Peña was injured when his girlfriend beat him up. The Diagnosis: bone bruise (wrist). He's expected to miss about 2 weeks.
Washington Nationals: DH Lewis Brown was injured on a defensive play. The Diagnosis: broken nose. He's expected to miss about 5 days. L2PD bruh
Ball took a funny hop, obviously. Did that to a guy on Thursday night playing softball. Then again, Brown is in the majors, so yes, L2PD.
Nick Heard goes down for I Peench and newly acquired Nomar Mazara goes down for Fmode11 both for extended periods of time.
