4 Year Lottery Analysis

Discussion in 'The Dugout - OOTP Online League' started by HAL9100, Feb 27, 2014.

  1. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    After 4 years of the lottery, I figured it was good time to check a couple things to see how well it's doing.

    First, an average positioning of each pick. Over time each pick should be close to their actual positioning and that's what we're looking for here. When you see the top and bottom extremes though, it's hard for them to match up exactly as the #1 pick can't improve and the #20 pick can't do worse.

    Average Draft Position by Lottery Pick

    1. 2nd Pick - 2.75 avg
    2. 1st Pick - 3.00 avg
    3. 3rd Pick - 4.25 avg
    4. 5th Pick - 6.25 avg
    5. 10th Pick - 7.25 avg
    6. 8th Pick - 7.75
    7. 4th Pick - 8.00
    8. 6th Pick - 8.25
    9. 9th Pick - 9.25
    10. 7th Pick - 10.25
    11. 11th Pick - 11.00
    12. 17th Pick - 12.25
    13. 14th Pick - 12.50
    14. 16th Pick - 12.75
    15. 15th Pick - 13.00
    16. 13th Pick - 14.00
    17. 12th Pick - 15.75
    17. 19th Pick - 15.75
    19. 20th Pick - 16.50
    20. 18th Pick - 19.50

    Notably here despite some of the extreme changes we've seen in individual drafts, all top 10 picks are still in the top 10. 4 out of the top 5 are still in the top 5.

    After looking at that, I thought it'd be interesting rank the teams based on average spot movement through the 4 drafts.

    Average Draft Movement by Team

    1. San Diego Padres - +7.25
    2. Houston Astros - +2.25
    3. Toronto Blue Jays - +2.00
    3. New York Yankees - +2.00
    3. Seattle Mariners - +2.00
    3. Washington Nationals - +2.00
    7. Detroit Tigers - +1.50
    8. Minnesota Twins - +1.25
    9. Chicago Cubs - +1.00
    10. Miami Marlins - +0.75
    11. Baltimore Orioles - +0.50
    11. St. Louis Cardinals - +0.50
    11. Kansas City Royals - +0.50
    14. Texas Rangers - +0.25
    14. Pittsburgh Pirates - +0.25
    16. Atlanta Braves - 0.00
    16. Chicago White Sox - 0.00
    18. Arizona Diamondbacks - -0.50
    18. Philadelphia Philies - -0.50
    20. San Francisco Giants - -1.25
    20. Oakland Athletics - -1.25
    20. Tampa Bay Rays - -1.25
    23. Boston Red Sox - -1.50
    23. Los Angeles Dodgers - -1.50
    25. New York Mets - -2.00
    25. Milwaukee Brewers - -2.00
    27. Cleveland Indians - -2.25
    28. Los Angeles Angels - -2.50
    29. Cincinnati Reds - -3.50
    30. Colorado Rockies - -4.00


    Not All teams were in the lottery every year though. The Braves and White Sox(the only teams with no sway one way or the other) are the only teams to make the playoffs every year of the Lottery years and have never participated in it. So, here's the average movement based of just when teams are in the lottery:

    Average Lottery Draft Movement by Team

    1. San Diego Padres - +9.67
    2. Houston Astros - +4.50
    3. Toronto Blue Jays - +4.00
    3. New York Yankees - +4.00
    3. Seattle Mariners - +4.00
    6. Washington Nationals - +2.00
    6. Chicago Cubs - +2.00
    6. Baltimore Orioles - +2.00
    9. Detroit Tigers - +1.50
    9. Miami Marlins - +1.50
    11. Minnesota Twins - +1.25
    12. St. Louis Cardinals - +1.00
    13. Kansas City Royals - +0.67
    14. Pittsburgh Pirates - +0.50
    15. Texas Rangers - +0.33
    16. Atlanta Braves - N/A
    16. Chicago White Sox - N/A
    18. Philadelphia Philies - -0.50
    19. Arizona Diamondbacks - -0.67
    20. Boston Red Sox - -1.50
    21. Tampa Bay Rays - -1.67
    21. Oakland Athletics - -1.67
    23. Los Angeles Dodgers - -2.00
    24. New York Mets - -2.67
    25. Cleveland Indians - -3.00
    26. Los Angeles Angels - -3.33
    27. Cincinnati Reds - -3.50
    28. Milwaukee Brewers - -4.00
    28. Colorado Rockies - -4.00
    30. San Francisco Giants - -5.00
     
    Last edited: Feb 27, 2014
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  2. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    Rigged.
     
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  3. ty5oke

    ty5oke Walk On

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    Nice work HAL9100

    Looks like you want to finish 10th or 17th and not 4th or 12th
     
  4. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    Looks like you want to be the guy creating the draft order.
     
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  5. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    HAHAHAHAHAHAH
     
  6. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    :smug:
     
  7. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

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    Why squirrel hate me? :(

     
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  8. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    [​IMG]
     
  9. Timpegoose

    Timpegoose Walk On

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    Nice work Hal. I'm surprised me and soxandgators are the only ones who haven't had the joys of participating yet.
     
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  10. abolishthefed

    abolishthefed Specializing in mediocrity

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    Haha, San Diego the only team in the division that has moved up. The other 4 teams all negative, including the 2 with the most downward movement.
     
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  11. Drifterbub

    Drifterbub Help me hide a body?

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    Lottery needs to only include bottom 10 teams.
     
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  12. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    Starting now? ;)
     
  13. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    I suggested to Neu earlier today that it should only be teams under .500 since that's almost a bigger goal than making the playoffs now. In your scenario, a team looking at #11 would likely consider tanking to get into the the bottom 10 for the lottery. In my scenario, no one would tank to be below .500 because that allows them to keep their job longer.

    The other option would be to make it more like the NBA where the lottery is only for the top 3 picks. So the worst the 30th team could be is 4th in the draft.
     
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  14. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    These numbers are thrown off by the 2026 draft when ty5oke made the order and the Padres only moved up 6 spots.
     
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  15. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    That was also the only year that all 3 other NL West teams in the lottery lost spots. So Ty was really just out to screw us all that year. At least Neu isn't that harsh to us.
     
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  16. ryalaman

    ryalaman Walk On

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  17. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    I also wasn't in it one year.
     
  18. Drifterbub

    Drifterbub Help me hide a body?

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    I would buy into that logic.
     
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  19. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

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    Noooo, that makes way too much sense.
     
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  20. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    So the Padres pick 4th every year? I say teams can't move more than 5 spots.
     
  21. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    I'm fine with that.
     
  22. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    We noticed.
     
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  23. JFace907

    JFace907 Ron F'n Swanson

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    So I posted this in this year's lotter reveal, but now i want to back track. Screw bottom ten. We need a bottom five lotto. With the 5 year rule and the shallow draft classes, these teams that were truly awful need a chance to succeed.
     
  24. HarkTheSound

    HarkTheSound Walk On

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    I gotta say, Im all for keeping people from tanking and keeping the lottery system, but including all 20 teams is dumb when you look at the jumps these teams are having. NT jokes and shit aside, nobody outside the top 5-10 should have any shot whatsoever at a top 3 pick. The classes aren't all that great and bad teams should have a shot at good players - the Yankees, who had one bad year and have an almost 250 mil payroll, should not have a pick so high when they don't "deserve" it.

    I think one of two things needs to happen.

    1. The lottery is broadcasted on youtube or google hangout or whatever. It needs to fucking happen or else people are gonna bitch every. single. season.

    OR

    2. If its not broadcasted, teams in the top 10 should have a lottery system, while the order for 11-28 is permanently set. This shouldn't be this hard to figure out and settle.
     
  25. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    I think you're under-estimating people's willingness to bitch. If people seriously think Neu is cheating or rigging the draft though, then they're dumb as shit. And this is coming from the person that has gotten screwed by the lottery worse than anyone. There are so many ways he could cheat and no one would ever know. He could lower his player's salaries and even change their ratings. Who needs to get a high pick when you can do that? But no, he's going to do it in the way that would be the most obvious to everyone, lol.

    If you want a broadcasted draft for the entertainment or so people can bitch in the middle of the draft rather than at the end, that's cool. If you want him to broadcast it for the assurance that he's not cheating:

    [​IMG]
     
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