Featured A Look Back - 2030 MLB Draft

Discussion in 'The Dugout - OOTP Online League' started by Roggie, Jan 1, 2015.

  1. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    Meant to post this about a week ago, but got busy at work and didn't realize I never posted it until now.

    1: SP Jim Brewer - Cincinnati Reds

    A highly-touted product from UNC, Brewer was initially selected with the No. 2 overall pick in 2029 by the Philadelphia Phillies. He failed to sign with them, so the Reds took him No 1 in 2030. Rated as a can't-miss stud out of college, where he compiled a 21-2 record and a 1.60 ERA in his last two seasons, Brewer never really put it all together because he failed to develop control of the ball. One of his biggest assets in college never came to fruition in the MLB, and he was traded to the White Sox along with "Nimrod" Morris in a blockbuster trade in 2033. Brewer has had a couple of solid seasons in Chicago, but never became the star that he was projected to be. He is putting his best year together this year, going 4-4 with a 2.97 ERA. We'll see if that lasts, or if he'll dip to career ERA that hovers around 4.

    Grade: B- (By HarkTheSound)

    2: SP Conan Hie - Pittsburgh Pirates

    With Jim Brewer off the board, the Pirates liked what they saw out of Hie and made him the #2 overall pick. Hie came out of Evansville with 70/65/65 potential and was pretty well developed already being 45/55/40. He looked like a pretty safe pick and one that would be solid for the Pirates for many years. Only, that didn’t happen. After 2 fairly unimpressive years in the minors and some loss in his control potential, Pittsburgh shipped him off to Anaheim for LF Huang-fu Yong. Anaheim then swapped him over to San Diego less than 1 year later and Hie found his footing once again with the Padres. He was putting together a solid career and became the ace of their staff, but then he was struck down with a torn flexor tendon in 2036 but managed to return by the playoffs and contribute to the Padres championship. The injury brought him back down to earth though and he’s no longer the ace he once was. He’s still a capable starter for the time being, but who knows how long that’ll last.

    Grade: B (by HAL9100)

    3: SP Edwin McCoy - Los Angeles Dodgers

    Drafted by the Dodgers in a steal at #3, McCoy was a highly touted prospect from the get go. A 5 star recruit out of high school, with potentials of 75 stuff 65 movement and 75 control, McCoy looked to be a potential monster and future Cy Young contender. As with drafting any highschoolers, there is an inherent amount of risk involved. McCoy shattered any and all doubts, becoming a viable starter by age 23. At age 26 he is now entering what should be his best years, he still hasn't hit his potentials and even if he doesn't he will still be one of the top pitchers in the league for many years to come.

    Grade: A (By Gravity)

    4: 2B Anthony Bailey - Oakland Athletics

    Bailey looked to be a new breed of 2B when drafted, projecting to have above average contact with plus power to go along with decent speed and plus defense. That talent never manifested itself, however. Tomatoes has never managed a ML year with a WAR of 1 or higher, and sabermetrics hate him with his horrible OBP. At his best, he has never been better than a utility backup infielder, and that is definitely not worthy of a top 5 draft pick.

    Grade: D- (By Roggie)

    5. SP Jeremy Church - Philadelphia Phillies

    A solid looking pitcher out of Arkansas, Church's career was derailed before it even got started. His stuff dropped within a year of being drafted, and the final nail in the coffin came when he tore a UCL, forcing him to undergo Tommy John Surgery. After that, he completely died off, and is now a mediocre at best arm in AA. He's also torn his biceps, and missed action because of a finger blister and food poisoning. Safe to say, Philly fans will look back and wonder what could have been had they drafted Maxwell Larsen or Eric Atkinson.

    Grade: F (By HarkTheSound)

    6: 2B Tad Lewis - Colorado Rockies

    Lewis was the 2nd position player taken in the draft and had the look of a potential 5 tool player. He had a long way to go but the consensus was that he would someday be the face of a franchise and the Rockies were hoping that would be them. That hope didn’t last for long though as it was clear that Lewis couldn’t perform at the same level as a professional. After some regression, the Rockies sent him off to the Orioles in exchange for 2B Cesar Perez(who had been blowing up in Baltimore). Perez never really panned out for Colorado either though and Lewis never became much more than a role player with the depth in Baltimore.

    Grade: C (by HAL9100)

    7: SP Maxwell Larsen - Texas Rangers

    As we are seeing now, this draft was pretty freaking loaded. Larsen was another high school arm taken in the top 10. With potentials of 70 stuff 65 movement and 65 control this was a great value pick at #7. Larsen would go on to blow up over the coming years and turn into a monster on paper. At age 26 his current ratings are as follows, 75 stuff, 70 movement 70 control with three pitches at 70 or above. These ratings are very reminiscent of David Taylor (May he RIP.) As with McCoy Larsen is just now entering what are going to be his best years. Coming off of a 100 win season for the Rangers, Larsen will look to follow it up with a Cy Young caliber year.

    Grade: A (By Gravity)

    8: SP Luke Miller - Cleveland Indians

    Miller was in line as another outstanding pitching prospect before being drafted by the team with a overflowing graveyard of dying prospects. Miller was a guy with high strikeout potential to go with plus movement and control. He found that movement and control, but he never turned into a strikeout pitcher. Whirlwind has carved out a career as a 4/5 starter pitching to contact and inducing ground balls.

    Grade: C- (By Roggie)


    9. CF Eric Atkinson - Anaheim Angels

    Atkinson has had one of the more interesting careers in Dugout history. A two-way player out of Florida with a stellar bat, as well as a stud pitching arm, Atkinson started off his career in the rotation. He was a 75/70/70 arm and tore through rookie and A ball, posting a 2.91 ERA and 21.2 WAR in 4 seasons. But his weakness was facing lefty batting and he never learned another pitch, which led the Angels to convert him back to a center fielder. His first full year in AA as a batter, he hit .285 with a 3.7 WAR, and the rest is history. Atkinson is playing CF full-time for the Angels, where he's hitting .333 this year and is a lifetime .292 hitter in the majors.

    Grade: A- (By HarkTheSound)

    10: C Preston Irwin - Baltimore Orioles

    Preston Irwin is probably best associated with another catcher; Juan Valdes. The Angels had the most talented team in the Dugout and Valdes was probably their most important player. Former rookie of the year, 3 time all star, and probably a future MVP. Then tragedy struck as he tore his ACL and retired while in his prime. Irwin was a promising young catcher stuck in the Baltimore minors behind Wayne Barnes and the Angels needed someone immediately to replace Valdes. They would send Chester Dobson to Baltimore in order to get Irwin as the replacement. Irwin has stuck as the Angels starting catcher, but he’s never come close to filling the void left by Valdes.

    Grade: B+ (by HAL9100)

    11: SP Neil Fletcher - Detroit Tigers

    Talk about a bust, Fletcher has yet to pitch in the Majors and won't be getting the call anytime soon. Drafted as a 4.5 star spec comes with high expectations, Fletcher didn't meet any of them. Within two years of being drafted he went from a potential ace on paper, to a I Want To Tank Let Me Throw This Guy..guy. Some say it was chlamydia that cost him his talent, others say it was the water in Detroit, either way, bust.

    Grade: D (By Gravity)

    12: 1B Alberto Molina - Toronto Blue Jays

    Molina was drafted as a high power potential bat with average contact and a nice eye. He's hit most of his ceilings since he was drafted, although he has been projected to have an even better eye than originally thought. However, that talent has not turned into results. He's been a good power bat, but his OBP and average have been pathetic. He's been a negative WAR player in half of his seasons in the majors and is still a pathetic defender at 1B.

    Grade: D+ (By Roggie)


    13. SS Vincent "Hot Rod" Hamilton - San Diego Padres

    A platoon bat drafted out of Long Beach State, Hamilton remained on the west coast after the Padres pegged him with the 13th pick. Hot Rod didn't gain any potentials - he just worked his way through the minors and became exactly what San Diego wanted him to be. Hamilton is having a bit of a down year this season, but is a lifetime .282 hitter with a .368 on base and a 23.2 WAR in 4.5 seasons. He's also durable, having played in 145+ games in all of his full seasons. He struggled during San Diego's World Series run, only hitting .194 in the playoffs, and has never been an elite infielder defensive wise, but at No. 13, it's hard to argue with the value he's brought to the Padres' organization.

    Grade: A- (By HarkTheSound)

    14: SS Chuck Armstrong - Kansas City Royals

    Armstrong was never going to be a star. He’s the type of player that you hope will pan out into being your #1 or #2 batter in your lineup. He played good defense, got on base, and played in the tough SEC. That got the Royals attention as they made him the 14th pick. After 1 year though, he had regressed and it was clear he would never reach the expectations for him. The Pirates eventually took him in the Rule 5 draft hoping he could turn it around but it just wasn’t meant to happen. Between injuries and poor performance, Armstrong posted a negative WAR in Pittsburgh. The Rockies ended up signing him to a 4 year contract though but seem to have since relegated him to the minors.

    Grade: D+ (by HAL9100)

    15: RF Ed Sabine - Philadelphia Phillies

    It took him a little while to get his footing, but once he did Sabine became a very reliable player and won two World Series titles with the Phillies. He more or less lived up to his ratings and didn't show much regression from his original potentials. If anything I think Sabine played well above his ratings, and there is no doubt he was a big part of the Phillies success.

    Grade: B (By Gravity)

    16: SP Ed Richardson - New York Mets

    While Richardson isn't of the caliber of the top 10 starting pitching picks, he was still a nice prospect with solid stuff and plus movement/control. The only problem is, he didn't hit his ceiling in any of the three, and never developed what looked to be a possible plus curveball. He's become a decent #5, but nothing more, which still isn't good enough for a top 20 pick.

    Grade: C- (By Roggie)

    17. SP Dave Cromartie - Boston Red Sox

    Can't find him anywhere, on the game or on statslab. He dead. Considering I've never even heard of him, I'm pretty sure he's never reached the majors.

    Grade: F (By HarkTheSound)

    18: SP Jim Boswell - Baltimore Orioles

    For the longest time, Baltimore has had one of the deepest organizations in the Dugout. Boswell had plenty of potential for the #18 pick, but through either the depth of the Orioles or through poor performance, Boswell has never made it to the Majors and probably never will. He was injured immediately after signing with the Orioles so that likely played a key role in his development. He did well in AA but has struggled mightily in AAA so that will probably be the end of the road for him.

    Grade: F+ (by HAL9100)

    19: SP Dave Craig - St Louis Cardinals

    Now I know why this fucker has the middle name Slow Motion, it took him 3 years to progress 10 control potential. Craig is now 30 and has become the punching bag of NL East hitters. His career ML ERA is over 5. Perhaps in a different division he would do well but for now he is terrible. Craig's main contributions have been in the form of the trades he was a piece of. Craig was involved in a trade which sent him to the Yankees along with some other prospects. I think this somehow led to the David Taylor trade. Whatever, Taylor is dead now.

    Grade: D+ (By Gravity)

    21. CL Abel Jones - Milwaukee Brewers

    A 80/60/70 closer out of USC, Jones looked to be a stud pen arm for years to come. But like so many before him, Jones just could never place the ball where he wanted, and his control fell off within a few years of being drafted. He pitched 28.2 career innings in the MLB, where he posted a 5.65 ERA and 1.92 WHIP. Nowadays, he's a free agent after putting together some OK seasons in the minors, where he was a part of 2 championship teams. The Brewers have been a doormat in the Dugout for a long time, and picks like Jones keep setting this organization further behind.

    Grade: F (By HarkTheSound)

    22: SP Henry Peters - Washington Nationals

    Once upon a time, the Nationals were actually decent at baseball. I know that seems like a farfetched idea these days, but it’s true. They’ve made their fair amount of bad picks throughout the years to make that happen. Henry Peters is not one of those picks. At Arizona State, Peters was known for his ability to keep balls in the park and on the ground. That carried over into the pros and has allowed him to become one of the more reliable pitchers for the Nationals. Peters actually developed exactly as everyone expected which has made him a very good value pick. The only negative about him is that he never developed beyond that and became an ace for Washington.

    Grade: A- (by HAL9100)


    23: SS Bernie Todd - Seattle Mariners

    Todd was coming into his own as a mediocre young short stop when he broke a bone in his elbow in 2034. Injury setbacks would cost his his career, kinda like David Taylor except no one gave a shit. At 23 this was a solid pick and on paper made perfect sense. High contact high avoid k, good fielding at multiple positions, as well as speed. Unfortunately he didn't pan out, but I still liked the pick.

    Grade: C (By Gravity)

    24: SP Travis Rodgers - New York Yankees

    Rodgers was a decent arm, a guy who projected as a #3 or 4, and was part of the package for the now-retired David Taylor. He's turned into a #15 who should only be used if you have a ton of injuries. He had some success in 2036, but has continued to regress since then. This season, he has gotten shelled and I'm not sure why he is still in the majors.

    Grade: D (By Roggie)

    25. CL Brandon Dalton - Arizona Diamondbacks

    2030 wasn't the year of the reliever, that's for sure. Another pen arm who couldn't control otherwise impressive stuff, Dalton fell off as soon as he was drafted out of Cal. Luckily for the D-Backs, they didn't get a front row to his demise because he failed to sign and was drafted in the 3rd round by the Reds in 2031.

    Grade: F (By HarkTheSound)

    26: C Ed Smith - Chicago White Sox

    With 45 contact potential, the White Sox GM must’ve been drunk when he made this pick. Maybe he had his nephew throw darts at a wall to see who to pick. Or maybe they went bobbing for apples with names inside of the apples. Or maybe he was tripping on acid and thought this was the reincarnation of the English cricketer because he had recently watched that baseball movie with the guy from Mad Men and thought he would be the savior of the franchise someday. Then the sun rose the next morning and he couldn’t figure out wtf he had done and opted to not sign Ed Smith.

    Smith did end up getting drafted by the Royals a year later and played for 4 years in the MLB but was awful.

    Grade: F (by HAL9100)

    27: SS Cy Bailey - Chicago Cubs

    Bailey has been a 1 star wonder most of his career. Along with Sabine he helped the Phillies win two world series and played well above his ratings. When he was drafted he was looking like a very solid contact hitter with 70 potential in contact and 75 in avoid k. Sometimes these types of guys are hit or miss but Bailey has produced consistently.

    Grade B (By Gravity)

    28: 2B Jeremy Wilson - Atlanta Braves

    Having drafted myself at 27, I was torn between Bailey and Wilson. I really liked both prospects, but neither one developed talent wise as what scouts thought they would. Wilson never turned into the all around player he was expected to be, and this year is his first season even seeing the majors. He is still a good defender, and has produced so far, but it's unlikely that he keeps his production going with his bat.

    Grade: C (By Roggie)

    29. 3B Tom Acuata - Houston Astros

    Unlike his fellow Florida teammate Atkinson, Acuata never reached the MLB or even remotely sniffed it. He projected to be a solid contact hitter after batting .318 in his final collegiate season, but Acuata was made of Charmin. He broke his hand and his kneecap in a year's time, and his contact fell off after those injuries. He was a solid A-ball player during his career before hitting free agency in 2036, where he remains. Reports coming out of the Gainesville area say Acuata now tests a toilet paper companies' product before distribution.

    Grade: F (By HarkTheSound)

    30: RF Kade Hull - Tampa Bay Rays

    Hull is a guy that actually showed some promise early in his career. His eye actually progressed beyond what was expected from him, but unfortunately for him, his contact potential would drop below 50 all but dooming his career. He did see some action in the Majors but only managed a .185 avg. Looks like a lost cause at this point.

    Grade: D (by HAL9100)

    31: 3B Kelly Gutierrez - San Francisco Giants

    Bust, bust, bust, one more time, bust.

    Grade F (By Gravity)

    32: 1B/OF Michael Jordan - Atlanta Braves

    Jordan was a guy who was also on my radar at 27, but his lack of eye and being projected as a total platoon bat (along with my lack of infielders) made me go Bailey. Boy, have I been proven wrong on that selection. Jordan has surpassed all expectations by scouts, turning into a guy who crushes right handed pitchers and can hold his own against lefties. Cobra has been a steal at 32, a high contact bat with a ton of power and can run. Not an OBP machine, as he strikes out a bit more than normal and struggles at laying off close pitches. But definitely a bat that any player would like in their lineup.

    Grade: A- (By Roggie)

    Round 2, Pick 18: SP Paul Spencer - Boston Red Sox

    Spencer was a solid 2nd round selection, and improved his movement and stuff after being traded by the Sox to Anaheim in a deal for SP Burt Campbell. Then, Spencer was traded to land SP Rob Carig, and he had a couple of good seasons with the Rockies. He's ranked in the top 5 in the MLB in starts the last 4 seasons, and posted 7.8 and 7.9 WAR seasons in 2035 and 2036. He's come back to earth the last two years, but for a second round pick, Spencer has proven to be a solid arm.

    Grade: B (By HarkTheSound)

    Round 4, Pick 12: Dave Fei - San Diego Padres

    Fei has turned himself from a guy who scouts thought would be a fringe AAA player into one of the better infielders in baseball. He's a more talented version of Cy Bailey now, with good contact and a penchant for avoiding strikeouts at all cost. Scouts still feel that he can develop his knowledge of the strike zone a bit more and become an OBP monster, but right now, he's a mediocre defensive shortstop with one of the best bats for an infielder, and is a guy who will get you 4+ WAR every season he stays healthy.

    Grade: A- (By Roggie)

    Round 12, Pick 6: Elton Rice - Philadelphia Phillies

    Rice was a mediocre arm with good control out of college, but only 2 pitches and nowhere near the stuff to pitch in the majors. Then the coaches in Philly's system taught him how to get a bit more movement on the ball and Rice bulked up a bit and started throwing much harder. He has become one of the better closers in baseball since reaching the majors.

    Grade: A (By Roggie)

    Round 13, Pick 30: 1B ChAHles MAHtin - Chicago Cubs

    Fahkin Chucky Mahtin kid. The dude gets cut then resigned two weeks later, blows up for the Cubbies and is now one of the best 1B's in baseball. He also happened to finish his blow up right when the Cubs traded Joe Quate to the poor sap known as me. Douchebags.

    Grade A (By Gravity)
     
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  2. Ken Welsch

    Ken Welsch BTFD!

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    My second round pick was SS Joe Taylor, whom I traded to the Yankees and went on to win the '36 AL Rookie of the Year and one All Star game in 3 seasons. He's definitely an incomplete at this point, but he's a player and you might want to add to the list...

    The rest of my draft sucked buttermilk that year, unfortunately.

    Nice analysis. Keep up the good work.
     
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  3. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    9.4 WAR in 3 seasons so far, I'd say he's been pretty solid.
     
  4. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    It's too big of a pain in the ass to find people who weren't in the first round, since most guys aren't listed in the draft thread. I just picked some of the guys on the top 5 on statslab.
     
  5. abolishthefed

    abolishthefed Specializing in mediocrity

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    To be fair, Gutierrez at least made it to the majors. He should at least be a D or C-.
     
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  6. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    I personally would have gone D-, since making it should exclude it from being an F, but I guess Gravity has some inner hatred for him.
     
  7. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    I was lazy at that point.
     
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  8. KnightNoles

    KnightNoles Learn to Compete

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    Still waiting for Peters to give me what he looked like as a spec.

    :(
    :bag:
     
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  9. ty5oke

    ty5oke Walk On

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    Just like most of my 1st rounders
     
  10. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    Even the ones you trade. Bill Simmons is dead.
     
  11. JFace907

    JFace907 Ron F'n Swanson

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    Another depressing thread. At least this one made it to the show
     
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