A Look Back: Grading the 2028 Draft

Discussion in 'The Dugout - OOTP Online League' started by Roggie, Oct 28, 2014.

  1. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    HAL9100, NeuroticTruth, and myself all decided to bring back the A Look Back threads. Will be doing one of these per year during each draft.

    The 2028 Draft:

    1 - SP Joseph Keller - Miami Marlins

    Everyone knew before the draft that Keller would be a transcendent player and change the course of the league. What wasn’t known at the time was that the Marlins (Blaza) would botch the signing of one of the best SP prospects ever and he would end up going to Oakland in the 2029 draft. This didn’t just affect these 2 teams though. Moving a player like him from the NL East to the AL West affected the entire power structure of the league. These days Keller is a perennial Cy Young contender and the workhorse of the A’s rotation.

    Grade: F HAL9100

    Picking Keller was a no brainer and is worth an A(+++++) for not screwing up that part of it, but this pick could’ve been the difference between the 2034 Marlins losing in the NLCS or them making it to the World Series and potentially winning it.

    2 - SP William Mondem - Philadelphia Phillies

    Mondem never developed into the shutdown #1 pitcher that scouts expected, but he has grooved out a solid career as a #2/#3 pitcher with one outstanding season in 2032. Hammer was expected to contend for the Cy Young year in and year out when drafted, projected to have plus stuff and movement with outstanding control. He ended up unable to fully develop his splitter, and that hurt his strikeout numbers.

    Grade: B- Roggie

    3 - SD - SS Jon Wright

    Jon Wright was the top position player taken in the draft and for good reason. Wright looked like a potential 5 tool player that could anchor a team offensively and defensively. He had a long way to go being drafted out of High School, but he’s managed to match his potential ratings. He was taken along slowly before getting dealt to Anaheim in 2032. These days, he’s batting cleanup and is close to a 5 tool player. His stats haven’t quite matched his ratings yet, but he’s still one of the best SS in baseball.

    Grade: A- HAL9100

    4) LF David Ennis - Oakland

    Being a former #4 overall pick, you would like to see a little more fully developed value here. Ennis truly has never completely lived up to his potential although I wouldn’t consider him a “bust” by any means. He still possesses great speed allowing to be an easy top 5 base stealer in the league to go along with his consistently quality OBP. That unfortunately is where the good ends for Ennis. His contact potential has dropped off pretty heavily since being drafted and despite decent power hes never been able to put the ball over the fence with any consistency. This wouldn’t be a bad pick if were a late first, but at #4 we all expected more.

    Grade: C+ NeuroticTruth

    5. SP Curtis Kline - Kansas City Royals

    Kline can't figure out what he wants to be. He was a stud left-handed prospect who was going to be one of the better strikeout pitchers around. Scouts pegged him for dead after a couple of years, but new coaching got into Gobbler's head and somewhat revived him. In the end, he is now a #3 pitcher who can shut down most left handed bats but is average against the right handed hitter, but he never became that high strikeout pitcher that he was expected to be.

    Grade: B Roggie

    6) SP Aaron Dixon - Texas

    Drafted at 22 and already fairly developed, Dixon looked like an ace in the making. Unfortunately, while Dixon developed his stuff and control, his movement suffered tremendously. Dixon never lived up to his billing in Texas, mostly due to his 43% GBP and after a failed attempt at a transition to the bullpen he was released.

    Grade: C- NeuroticTruth

    7 - NYA - SP Jesus Duran

    Generally speaking, there’s one objective for every drafted player; to reach the MLB. For a player drafted in the Top 10, you may have some higher hopes and expectations, but they at least need to make the majors to be considered any sort of a successful pick. That never happened with Jesus Duran. It was pretty clear from the start that he would bust as his potentially regressed hard after being drafted. The Yankees eventually traded him to the Padres where he squandered away in their minors. These days, Duran is said to be relaxing at home on his $6 Mil signing bonus and managing some Subway Restaurant chains that he’s invested in back in Newark, NJ near the NJIT campus.

    Grade: F HAL9100

    8. OF Will Holmes - Toronto Blue Jays

    Holmes looked like the 2nd best bat in the draft behind Jon Wright. Holmes is now a mediocre 4th outfielder who had an OBP of under .300 last season. A guy who was expected to have a high OBP due to above average contact ability and a great eye, Holmes developed that eye but never developed the rest of his tools. He is a good defender with some speed, but is just average at everything else and strikes out a ton (245 Ks in 2035).

    Grade: D Roggie

    9) SP Alberto Torres - Colorado

    Torres has been on a long adventure since being drafted #9 overall in 2028. He’s been traded three times since 2030, lost potential, and then regained his form somewhat. Despite what look to be solid physical skills, Torres has never been able to put it all together on the field. Now with the Red Sox, there is still time for Torres to put together some good seasons, but up to this point he’s been a relative disappointment.

    Grade: C NeuroticTruth

    10 - Det - SP Carl Fisher

    Fisher was originally drafted #11 in the 2027 draft by the Rangers. Unable to come to an agreement, Fisher came back for the 2028 draft and moved up one spot and was signed by the Tigers. He was a beast in High School but his one year in college caused some scouts to get concerned. They had noticed that his Stuff wasn’t looking nearly as good and downgraded him. The Tigers ignored this red flag though. Fisher’s Stuff potential continued to look worse and worse. He ended up matching his Movement potential and came close to matching his Control potential. His Stuff potential ended up falling all the way from a 70 to a 45 however and now he’s maxed out. He’s found a home at AA Erie for most of his career and doesn’t look like he’ll ever reach the majors.

    Grade: F HAL9100

    11. SP Michael Allen - Minnesota Twins

    Michael Allen was viewed as a very risky pick in the draft, being only 17 when drafted. He had a ton of talent, though, and Minnesota thought he was worth the risk. By 2032, the risk seemed to greatly overpower the reward, as Buzz was down to a nobody who no scout expected to make it. Then, everything started to click for Allen. Now, at 25, he is still developing in the minors but has a ton of strikeout stuff and scouts feel he will be able to control his stuff enough to make it at the ML level, but he is not there yet.

    Grade: Incomplete Roggie

    12) 3B Dave Johnston - Washington

    Johnston finally got his first chance to start at the Major League level in 2035, and for the most part didn’t disappoint. While Johnston didn’t set the world on fire, he did admirably and with more experience under his belt should be able to produce decently for the next few years. After being traded twice, he still somehow found his way back to the team that originally drafted him.

    Grade: B- NeuroticTruth

    13 - Pit - SP Bob Johnson

    In one of many deep pitching classes, Wild Bill took a surprising tumble down to the Pirates at #13. He started off progressing very quickly and signs were pointing up, but then his Stuff and Control potential started to drop off. Not a ton but enough temper his early progression. The Pirates were still optimistic about Johnson and called him up to the Majors just 1 year after being drafted in 2029. All told, he had a good year in 2029 too and has been solid his entire career. Never quite reaching the potential he showed on draft day but looks like he’ll be a reliable pitcher for the better part of a decade and maybe even longer.

    Grade: B HAL9100

    14. OF Kevin Clark - Arizona Diamondbacks

    I'll say this right now: I have never been a fan of Kevin Clark, and I have not hid that fact, especially when he was a 5 star prospect who could do nothing but hit homers and play defense. During the draft, Clark was a decent prospect with good power, defense, and the ability to hit for at least an acceptable average. He quickly lost all ability to judge the strike zone, which he has sense developed back to okay but under average, and lost his ability to make contact. Now, he's Dan Uggla with good but not great power and able to play an outstanding center field (but nowhere else in the outfield).

    Grade: D+ Roggie

    15) SP Keith Walker - Boston

    Walker was expected to be a future ace when drafted in 2028 at the ripe age of 18, and for the most part he has the makings of one. He was part of the Washington / Boston blockbuster in 2033 that sent Tim Simmons and Buddy Weeks to Boston (a move that Boston is likely regretting at this point). After a decent 2034 and 2035 campaign, Walker looks like he will be able to be a solid #2 or #3 for the foreseeable future, so long as his already low stamina doesn’t decline.

    Grade: A- NeuroticTruth

    16 - Cle - SP Curt Washington

    Washington was a promising SP coming out of High School in 2028 and turned 18 years old the week of the MLB Draft. The Indians grabbed him and were willing to give him time to develop. Unfortunately, he was really slow to develop. He just couldn’t get his Control…..under control. 4 short years later, the Indians felt they would be safe not protecting Washington from the Rule 5 Draft with his control still in disarray. They were wrong. The Pirates took him with the 5th pick of the 2031 Rule 5 Draft and stuck him in the MLB with just 35 control. This may have stunted Washington’s development as his potential started to drop right when this happened. He did managed to carve out a decent MLB career in Pittsburgh but he hasn’t matched what he looked like he’d be while with Cleveland.

    Grade: C+ HAL9100

    17. OF David Wright - Milwaukee Brewers

    Wright has been a part of his fair share of trades to this point, going from Milwaukee to the Angels then to the White Sox and finally to Cincinnati. Wright was never expected to be a perennial all-star, but was expected to be a solid bat. Last season, he finally became that. He's never going to be a guy who should play 162 games, since he struggles vs left handed pitching. But he can hit right handed pitchers well, has a lot of power, and can run. Not the greatest defender, but makes up for it by being great in left field.

    Grade: B- Roggie

    18) SP Larry Dilauro - St. Louis

    Dilauro was another SP that got passed around a lot during the young stages of his career. Dilauro finally got his chance to be a full-time starter in the ML last season and didn’t disappoint. While he still has some developing left to do (time is running out here on that), ‘El President’ looks like he, like Walker, will be a solid #2 / #3 for a while.

    Grade: B+ NeuroticTruth

    19 - Cin - SP Will Anderson

    Will Anderson got his nickname “Muscles” for always taking off his shirt and trying to flex in front of people. He may have looked like one of the stronger guys while at FAU, but when he got to the Billings Mustangs, everyone but him realized he was phony jackass that only cared about getting paid and showing off his lackluster muscles. He was so dumb he couldn’t take one of the many hints given to him by teammates and coaches. He started off progressing pretty well, but he gave up once he realized how much work it was going to take. Rumor has it that you’re likely to find him back on the FAU campus hiding in bushes with his shirt off.

    Grade: F HAL9100

    20. SP Jesus Martinez - Texas Rangers

    Martinez was a guy that I felt slipped a bit in the draft. Scouts saw him as a pitcher who would end up as a good #2 on a staff, due to him having 6 good pitches with good control. But that control never developed and ended up being under average. But Martinez developed everything else enough to a point that he works as a #4/#5 on a staff, and had 5 of his 6 pitches end up as above average offerings, topped off with a very good fastball. He could find a little bit extra control at some point and be a solid starter, but as he is now, which scouts think he will stay at, he can still carve out a career as a end of the rotation starter.

    Grade: C+ Roggie

    21) 1B Josh Stephens - Baltimore

    Stephens was moved from Baltimore to Houston in 2034 in exchange for RF Hanus Sekeras (which in hindsight was an absolute brilliant move by ty5oke). After another year of development, Stephens had a breakout campaign in 2035. He’s a plus defender at both 1B and 3B and has developed a solid bat to along with his fielding skills. If Stephens can continue to do what he did in 2035 he should have a solid career ahead of him.

    Grade: A- NeuroticTruth

    22 - NYN - SP Fernando Martinez

    Martinez was considered to be one of the safest picks in the 2028 Draft. Some pondered whether a GM facing a firing may take a shot at him early to get him into the MLB immediately. That ended up not happening though and he fell all the way to Mets at #22. Martinez did what most expected he would and made the MLB fairly quickly, but he never managed to reach his Control potential and could be considered a disappointment because of that. He’s been decent but nothing special and has now been relegated to the bullpen.

    Grade: B- HAL9100

    23. SP Peter Wright - Los Angeles Angels

    Wright looked like the possible second coming of Shane Thomas, a knuckleballer who could strike guys out. Then Wright blew out his elbow twice in one year and 5 days. He survived the first one, but Peter just couldn't recover from the second major injury. He could possibly make it as a reliever still, but he looks more like a career AAA pitcher.

    Grade: F+ Roggie

    24) 2B Dan McCormick - Houston

    McCormick is one of the few players from this draft that has stuck with his original team the whole time. At 26 he still has a chance to make the ML level in his career, but to this point has not. McCormick has great speed / base running abilities and a decent bat, but his limited fielding abilities kill whatever chance he has of claiming a roster spot.

    Grade: D NeuroticTruth

    25 - CHN - SP Jesus Villalobos

    Not quite sure happened to Watsie Villalobos. Drafted by the Cubs, he appeared to have a promising future. He was ranked as the #93 prospect in 2029 and made the 2032 Midwest League All Star Game but nothing ever come of it. He reached AAA and then was released after the 2034 season. His ratings and stats suggest that he was capable of reaching the Majors, but at the age of 25, he appears to have put baseball behind him.

    Grade: D- HAL9100

    26 - C Mark King - Atlanta Braves

    King was a guy who I had major thoughts about drafting at 25. My selection, Villalobos, was a complete bust. King has turned into an okay hitting catcher, but is still below average behind the plate, which was the reason I passed on him. He has not played to what scouts believe him to be, which should be a 25 homer catcher who hits for an okay average and has a good OBP. King is best suited to a platoon role vs right handed pitching and being subbed out late in games for a better defensive catcher.

    Grade: C+ Roggie

    27) SP Stu Gray - Chicago (American)

    The verdict is still out on Gray. He has the potentials to be a stud, but if hes ever going to finish his development and become the ace he was expected to be, he needs to do it soon. At 27 he only has one full year of ML experience at his helm (albeit a decent one), but his BB/9 are still way to high to consider him an elite pitcher.

    Grade: B NeuroticTruth

    28 - SF - SP Donald St. George

    St. George looked like the Giants had found themselves a steal late in the 1st round in the couple years after the draft. His potential ratings were increasing. Then he was traded to the Cubs in 2030 and it all started to fall apart. All the promise was gone quickly. After tiring of his lack of development, Chicago waived him and he was claimed by the Marlins. He ended up pitching in 2 MLB games with the Marlins giving up 4 ER over 6 innings. He’s still just 26 though and is capable of potentially figuring out how to make it back to the Majors.

    Grade: D HAL9100

    29. OF Tony Taylor - Tampa Bay Rays

    Taylor looked like a solid platoon bat vs righties in the draft. He's turned into a solid platoon bat vs righties... in AA. Taylor never developed any sort of eye, is horrible defensively, and is useless vs left handed pitching. He has power, but struggles to make contact. A one tool player who should never reach the majors.

    Grade: F Roggie

    30) SS Dave Griffin - Detroit

    This pick was never super flashy. This late in the 1st round there wasn’t a lot of great talent left. That being said Griffin is exactly what was expected of him when he was drafted. An elite defender that would be a solid role player as a backup IF. His ability to play virtually any infield position with success makes him a solid asset.

    Grade: B- NeuroticTruth

    31 - Atl - SP Brandon Flagello

    Flagello was a supplemental pick by the Braves and has become a journeyman in his short career. He’s currently with the Nationals, his 4th MLB team. However, he’s only made the majors with the Nationals….and there’s probably a reason for that. He’s been dreadful in Washington. He’s got a career ERA of 4.96, but his ERA has been 5.95 or higher in 3 of his 4 seasons. He’s still just 28 and could become something, but it doesn’t look promising as he’s been stashed away in the bullpen.

    Grade: C- HAL9100

    OF Ronnie Jeffries - Cleveland Indians

    Jeffries was a fringe prospect in the draft due to his lack of contact ability. At best, he could be a platoon vs lefties/right field defensive replacement late in games. In reality, he's a AAA player who would be a 6th/7th OF in an organization who could play in the ML in an injury pinch, but would not be a guy that a team would like putting on the field in anything other than a defensive role. Jeffries does have some power, but it's not enough to make him a ML player with his severe lack of contact.

    Grade: D- Roggie

    Round 3, pick 11 (75): OF Mark Cashne - Detroit Tigers

    Scouts definitely missed on Cashne, who has become a very reliable outfielder for Detroit. A 15+ homer guy every year who gets on base at an average clip, all while playing a very good center field for the Tigers. Not a high average guy, but a player that any team would love to have.

    Roggie

    Round 2, pick 10 (42): SP Bob Hines - Washington Nationals

    I'm not sure why Hines lasted this long into the 2nd round. He was a guy who had tons of control to go with good movement and average stuff, and was already pretty developed when he was drafted. He's a classic pitch to contact guy with very good control and above average movement. Hines isn't a hard thrower, so he doesn't supply the power for the batter. As long as he has a good infield behind him, he can be a very good pitcher, which he has been throughout his career.

    Roggie
     
    Last edited: Oct 28, 2014
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  2. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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  3. HarkTheSound

    HarkTheSound Walk On

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    Looking over this draft now, outside of the Keller pick obviously, it seems pretty weak overall. Good stuff fellas.
     
  4. NeuroticTruth

    NeuroticTruth dont know , dont care

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    Yeah, not a lot of studs from this draft. There are only ~6 players in that draft class that are over 100 VORP atm, with maybe 2 or 3 more that will reach that.
     
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  5. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    This was also the year where we only got 3.5 rounds of the draft done and had a bunch of undrafted FA signings, which makes it difficult to track later round (in this case, UD FAs) blowups.
     
  6. HAL9100

    HAL9100 TSO's Resident Antagonist

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    He's pitching like a shutdown #1 this season.

    Screen Shot 2014-10-28 at 2.15.06 PM.png
     
  7. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

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    There was a while where I thought Kline was going to be a bust but he's turned out to be pretty good.

    Capture.PNG
     
  8. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    Yeah, he turned into a solid starter. Not going to be an ace, but a very good innings eater that every team could use.
     
  9. HarkTheSound

    HarkTheSound Walk On

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    Kline had a major injury if I remember correctly and died off, but rebounded and gained a lot of his ratings back.
     
  10. JFace907

    JFace907 Ron F'n Swanson

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    While these threads are awesome, they just bring up old, painful memories for those of us in Cleveland...
     
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  11. Fmode11

    Fmode11 MVP

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    Fisher, Griffen and Cashne... Would end up in reverse order in terms of MLB success :sour: CF Cashne was the 5th player selected by Detroit in this draft. Missed were MR Cole Miller (2nd Round) and SS Lurther Byrd (2nd Round) who were both AAAA players with Byrd posting a 1.5 WAR in 55 games in 2034.

    Very nice work. Let me know if you guys want any help with other in the future.
     
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  12. Roggie

    Roggie Back 2 Back

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    They do the same thing for Cubs fans.
     
  13. JFace907

    JFace907 Ron F'n Swanson

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    This one i will say speaks more on a personal failure level though. We were so focused on acquiring talent in the Rule 5 Draft that we forgot to protect our players
     
  14. moshingpenguin

    moshingpenguin Walk On

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    ...this is aweseome... cool to get some more background!
     
  15. ty5oke

    ty5oke Walk On

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    Another 1st round bust in Houston.
     
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