AFC Playoff Picture

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by Kapono, Oct 6, 2014.

  1. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    The AFC Playoff picture is muddy, but not nearly as messy as what's happening in the NFC. I'll let somebody else do that lol. From without looking at all the possibilities and tiebreakers, it looks like not a single team has clinched a playoff spot in the NFC. So here's what the AFC looks like.

    (1 seed) Kansas City has already clinched the #1 seed at 13-1.

    (5 seed) Oakland locks up the 5 seed at 11-3. They can't win the division with 2 losses to KC.

    (2 and 3 seeds) Houston has clinched the division, but is unsure whether they will receive a first round bye or the 3 seed. At 10-3-1, they can't drop to the 4 seed, which must a tough Oakland squad. Pittsburgh is 9-4 with 3 games left (@ATL, KC, Cin) and could take the 2 seed, but with a tough 3 games, it'll be tough to pass Houston. The 3 seed will face the final wild card spot, who as we'll see could be almost anybody.

    (4 seed) - The Bills and Patriots are battling for the East, and the winner is almost certain to take the 4 seed and play Oakland at home. The Bills and Pats face off in week 17, but before that 7-7 Buffalo must travel to Oakland, and 6-7 New England plays vs. Miami and @ the Jets. Although the loser of the final game can be at best 8-8, they still have a very slim shot at the final wild card spot.

    (6 seed) The final Wild Card spot will be the most contested one. San Diego at 8-6 currently sits in the 6 spot, with a 1 game lead over all others, but they must travel to San Francisco and then to 13-1 Kansas City. The team with the next best chances would be Cincinnati. They still have a shot at their division, with a week 17 matchup against Pittsburgh, and also play Cleveland and Denver with Manning. The Colts are 7-7 after losing 3 straight, and have road matchups with Dallas and Tennessee. Tennessee at 6-8, could sneak in by beating Jacksonville and Indi.

    SD - 8-6 - @SF, @KC
    Pit - 9-4 - @Atl, KC, @Cin - Division Leader
    Cin - 7-6 - @Cle, Den, Pit
    Ind - 7-7 - @Dal, @Ten
    Ten - 6-8 - @Jax, Ind
    Buf - 7-7 - @Oak, @NE - Division Leader
    NE - 6-7 - Mia, @NYJ, Buf

    Our best guess at the playoff picture
    1. Kansas City - clinched
    2. Houston
    3. Pittsburgh
    4. New England
    5. Oakland - clinched
    6. Cincinnati
     
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  2. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    And our guess at how the playoffs unfold:
    =====================================
    3 vs. 6 - Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh will be coming off a week 17 win over Cincinnati, but we don't think they'll be able to pull off 2 wins in a week vs. Cinci. 24-13 Bengals

    4 vs. 5 - Oakland @ New England. This one's a no brainer, the Patriots will be happy to be there. 38-7 Raiders.
    ======================================
    1 vs. 6 - Cincinnati @ Kansas City. Kansas City so far has been the best team and will be 7+ point favorites to win at home. We're picking the upset here though, Cincinnati is a good team and if they can not turn the ball over, their offense will be enough to keep them in the game. 24-21 Bengals

    2 vs. 5 - Oakland @ Houston. In another surprising pick, I'm going away from the best division in the league. Houston doesn't really know who their QB is right now, but their offense puts up numbers, and this game should be a toss-up shootout. 37-31 Texans
    ========================================
    AFC Championship Game
    2 vs. 6 - Cincinnati @ Houston. I might be picking this matchup because we're 0-2 vs. Houston and 0-1 vs. Cinci, but I think they have the potential for upsets over Kansas City and Oakland. Both have playmakers at HB and WR.

    I have no idea who to take, so we're going with the home team as the AFC Champs: 28-20 Bengals.
     
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  3. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    NE has moved to 7-7, and possesses the tiebreakers over Buffalo.

    Patriots can clinch the AFC East with a win + BUF loss in week 16. or a win over Buffalo in week 17.
     
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  4. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    We'll show you!!

    We'll show everyone!!!

    Happy to be there my ass!
     
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  5. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Enjoyed reading this!

    The Chargers can clinch this week with a win correct?

    I believe the chargers would hold the tie breaker even if bengals win out and chargers Win one correct? I think I remember that between the colts, bengals, and charger, the bengals had worse conference record... Not 100% sure but that's what I remember at least.

    If this is true, chargers would have to drop their last two to fall out of the 6th seed correct?

    Oh gosh, I'm over thinking this! Just have to play good football tonight against suge...
     
  6. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    crap shoot, i remember reading the tiebreaker logic was "fixed", but we wont know until we know.
     
  7. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    Mininum games won to make playoffs: 8

    Here's a few scenarios:
    If New England loses vs NYJ, loses vs Buffalo : Buffalo wins division at 8-8, New England eliminated at 7-9.
    If New England loses vs NYJ, wins vs Buffalo: New England wins division at 8-8, Buffalo eliminated at 7-9.
    If New England wins vs NYJ, wins vs Buffalo : New England wins division at 9-7, Buffalo eliminated at 7-9.
    If New England wins vs NJY, loses vs Buffalo, New England wins division at 8-8, Buffalo in a terrible situation at 8-8 (see below)

    Buffalo's chances:
    1. Can win division with win vs New England, and a New England loss vs NYJ.
    2. Can win wildcard, with win vs New England, a New England win vs NYJ, 2 Charger losses, 2 Bengal losses, a Colts loss to Tennessee, and a Tennessee loss vs Jax. Buffalo owns the tiebreak with San Diego by virtue of head-to-head win, but should another team tie at 8-8, the team with best conference record will advance, which would be San Diego or possibly a tie with San Diego and Indianapolis.

    Indianapolis's chances: Although I thought I was eliminated with a loss at Dallas, we have a shot.
    1. Can win wildcard with win vs Tennessee, 2 Charger losses, and at least one Cincinnati loss to either Denver or Pittsburgh. In this scenario, Indianapolis would tie San Diego at 8-8 (if Cincinatti is 8-8, they're eliminated with lowest conference record. Same with a hypothetical 8-8 division-losing Buffalo.) This whole thing would require finding who holds the best record in common games between Indi and SD, but I'm not doing that since Madden probably doesn't even have that in there.
     
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  8. charter04

    charter04 Walk On

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    Raiders and Chiefs will win until they play each other IMO. The Chiefs will be in the SB is my guess
     
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  9. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    Tennessee is eliminated from the playoffs. Best possibility is 8-8, they have not played San Diego and hold a poor conference record.
     
  10. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    Pittsburgh has clinched the division. Houston is assured the number 2 seed, and and a bye with a win over Baltimore OR Jacksonville OR at Pittsburgh loss to Kansas City or Cincinnati. This all but locks up the top 3 seeds:
    1. Kansas City
    2. Houston
    3. Pittsburgh
    4. New England=75% , Buffalo=25%
    5. Oakland
    6. San Diego >75% chance

    Looking in: Indianapolis, Cincinnati, Buffalo
     
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  11. Kapono

    Kapono Walk On

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    Correct, 9 wins clinches the wildcard for San Diego.
     
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  12. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    San Diego @ SF will be streamed tonight at 8pm pst on my twitch channel.

    Big Suge Knight
     
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  13. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Looking at SF defense is just scary! Not only are they ranked at the top but their player ratings are through the roof!
     
  14. Big Suge Knight

    Big Suge Knight Walk On

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    Have you looked at the player ratings for your 12th man on defense? Kaepernick is no slouch
     
  15. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Kaepernicks passing has been exactly like Rivers which is not good (almost the same across the board). Didn't look at his rushing though.. If you run a lot with him I will have to plan to adapt my defense since I haven't played a mobile QB yet this season... Can't wait for our game!
     
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  16. charter04

    charter04 Walk On

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    Daddy leagues has the line at -1 in favor of the 49ers and a over/under of 42
     
  17. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Are those our predicted future record for m15 on this cycle?
     
  18. charter04

    charter04 Walk On

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  19. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Not at a console... Anyone know how many rushing yards/Td's Kaepernick has??
     
  20. UniQue2Three

    UniQue2Three Walk On

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    Chiefs will win superbowl...if Seahawks dont win :)
     
  21. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Hope CPU fires Mboda and he has to take over a different team....
     
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  22. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    I'm all for firing at mboda . I'll even provide the lighter and gasoline :)
     
  23. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    Only thing is, he will be taking over one of the AFC East teams after he's fired by ea in KC.....
     
  24. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    OK, so I'm not planning on losing next week but if I happen to lose to the best team in the league I wanted to know how the tie breaker system breaks down. See below from NFL.com (that is if Madden actually got this in the game....)

    TO BREAK A TIE FOR THE WILD-CARD TEAM
    If it is necessary to break ties to determine the two Wild-Card clubs from each conference, the following steps will be taken.

    1. If the tied clubs are from the same division, apply division tie breaker.
    2. If the tied clubs are from different divisions, apply the following steps.
    Two Clubs
    1. Head-to-head, if applicable. (Well, unfortunately I didn't match up against the Colts or Bengals this season...)
    2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference. (Well, at this point... The Bengals are out with a 4-7 Conf record... The Patriots and Bills are playing for the division and whoever wins will take their division at 8-8 and the other will drop to 7-9 and be out of wildcard contention. The only other team with a shot is the Colts and if they win and the Chargers lose they will both be tied at 8-8 with a tied conference record as well at 7-5 "if" the Chargers lose to the KC Chiefs next week and the Colts beat the Titans.
    3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, minimum of four. (Well, since the Chargers and Colts would be tied in overall record and conference record it should be determined here if Madden got it right.... Here's the common games breakdowns Chargers and Colts both played the Broncos, Jags, Ravens, and Patriots. The Chargers were a perfect 4-0 against those teams and the Colts were 4-1 losing to the Broncos. I believe that would make the SD Chargers the 6th seed no matter what happens week 17! But this is Madden we're talking about.... We're talking about a game with a salary structure that's not close to being right, and a game that has not been able to get playoff tie breaker logic fixed ever... I need to pull off the unlikely upset against the Chiefs next week regardless to take it out of the hands of Madden seeding logic.... If not, its like Kidofcrash23 said.... Its a crap-shoot).
    4. Strength of victory.
    5. Strength of schedule.
    6. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
    7. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
    8. Best net points in conference games.
    9. Best net points in all games.
    10. Best net touchdowns in all games.
    11. Coin toss.
     
  25. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    This is going to be a good race as well... I think Cinci will sneak in, Colts losing Luck for that period of time really hurt their playoff run. The Steelers proved they are the real deal. And I don't know if the Chiefs can top the Raiders 3 times in one season; it's almost better to split the series lol! Gonna be a tough road for any team wanting to make the SB!
     
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