Computer User Poll

Discussion in 'Legendary Veterans' started by Oshiomogho, Jan 1, 2012.

  1. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    I have constructed an automatic computer poll ranking system to rank the Users based on many factors including team skill, opponent skill, points, margins, among some other things. giving user vs user games a greater reward of course. The polls are more based on how well you are doing with what you got, not just how well you are doing
    The polls love Washington State because of what they are doing with a 76 OVR offense and defense... or what the Natural did with a 76 OVR team.

    Poll rankings below
    PS: if there is a matchup of 2 users in which one user was on autopilot, can you please inform me. it will change the numbers a bit. I went along as tho every user was a part of every game for their teams

     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2012
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  2. -Cougars-

    -Cougars- Walk On

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    I didn't play Washington or Oregon last year either
     
  3. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    Very cool, is playing with "what you got" talent wise weighted pretty heavily?
     
  4. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    We're probably right where we should be.

    What's your take on Cal's placement in the poll Oshiomogho ?
     
  5. Kasper

    Kasper The Ghost Himself

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    apparently :p
     
  6. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    Entering Week 10
    [​IMG] [​IMG][​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    1 Washington St - 87.91 (4-3)
    2 Oregon St - 77.07 (6-1)
    3 UCLA - 74.75 (8-0)
    4 Arizona St - 71.24 (6-1)
    5 Washington - 69.57 (6-1)
    6 Cal - 65.43 (4-3)
    7 Arizona - 63.83 (4-4)
    8 Utah - 63.62 (4-3)

    The rankings may take some tweaking based on more examples and research but I would like for them to be solidified for next year. I feel they are fairly accurate except maybe for WSU but they are easily the worst talented team in the conference. As the teams get more similar, the rankings will reflect gameplay more but I'll look into it.

    as for this week, Washington made the biggest jump, increasing 0.74 points and on the flip side, Utah dropped 1.02 points and fell to 8th place. WSU did not have a game
     
  7. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    Entering week 11
    [​IMG] [​IMG][​IMG] [​IMG]
    [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG] [​IMG]
    1 Washington St - 87.90 (5-3)
    2 Oregon St - 77.04 (7-1)
    3 UCLA - 74.59 (9-0)
    4 Arizona St - 70.38 (6-2)
    5 Washington - 69.90 (7-1)
    6 Cal - 65.65 (4-4)
    7 Arizona - 65.11 (5-4)
    8 Utah - 63.15 (4-4)
    Nothing changes this week in the placement but Arizona makes a strong push to pass Cal for 6th with a big win @ Utah. and Arizona State takes a big hit for their loss to Oregon State.
    Expect me to start tweaking the polls slowly to create the best polls I can come up with. Remember, this is more of a User ranking system then just a team performance poll
     
  8. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    I think wins should matter more, I'd disagree with me being 5.
     
  9. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    I was having this discussion earlier. I think you may be right. but its not as simple as just tweaking for winning so I will definitely look into it. any feedback or suggestions is welcomed at this point as I would like to get the ranking system down as good as I can for next year

    The fact that your team is possibly the best user team, hurts you in these polls as you are more expected to win these games so it's not impressing anyone.
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2012
  10. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    If it's a linear function, I thought increasing the weight for wins might change the decimal outcome. I don't know how you do it though.
     
  11. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    If I double weight of a win the rankings stay the same while the point totals change up a bit
    1 Washington St 90.4 (5-3)
    2 Oregon St 79.96 (7-1)
    3 UCLA 77.93 (9-0)
    4 Arizona St 72.88 (6-2)
    5 Washington 72.81 (7-1)
    6 Cal 67.31 (4-4)
    7 Arizona 66.96 (5-4)
    8 Utah 64.81 (4-4)

    The Computers love the fact that ASU beat USC and top 10 Boise on the road and also oregon at home. Washington has some big games left that will be a big impact still

    So I'll look into a way to factor it out better. It also takes into play the margin of victory/defeat based on the opposing team you are playing. You are expected to easily defeat weaker opponents and get a bonus for playing tough opponents.
     
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  12. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    I made a big formula error. No wonder WSU was so far ahead of the pace.

    well sorry for them but under the latest poll numbers, they would actually be
    1 Oregon St 79.96 (7-1)
    2 UCLA 77.93 (9-0)
    3 Washington St 75.25 (5-3)
    4 Arizona St 72.88 (6-2)
    5 Washington 72.81 (7-1)
    6 Cal 67.31 (4-4)
    7 Arizona 66.96 (5-4)
    8 Utah 64.81 (4-4)

    that makes much more sense! but im actually still in the process of tweaking things

     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2012
  13. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    UPDATE: After some tweaks, I think I found something that *may* work out better
    1 Oregon St 77.88 (7-1)
    2 UCLA 75.47 (9-0)
    3 Washington St 71.75 (5-3)
    4 Washington 70.59 (7-1)
    5 Arizona St 67.88 (6-2)
    6 Cal 59.97 (4-4)
    7 Arizona 58.75 (5-4)
    8 Utah 58.47 (4-4)

    It really shows a steeper dropoff in the teams that are winning and the teams that are slacking. With still spotlighting the teams who shouldnt be winning and downplaying the ones expected to. Conference games are weighted heavier so there is a good chance for some real movement from here on out

    According to the reports, the best game of the season was Oregon St over Washington which graded out to a 97.5
     
  14. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    This seems like the most accurate one, IMO. It's hard to gauge WSU tho, has kasper won any with them?
     
  15. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    in his 3 games, Kasper has graded out to a 66.67
    it is hard to judge with the user switch

    i think im gonna run some more research with the OC teams now and see if things seem accurate still
     
  16. Kasper

    Kasper The Ghost Himself

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    Beat Oregon who bitch slapped Cal

    #justsayin
     
  17. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    I was without my starting QB and RB playing an Oregon team with A's across the board, gimme a break! :(
     
  18. Kasper

    Kasper The Ghost Himself

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    I was Washington State, gimme a break!
     
  19. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    Mehhh.. we'll be climbing back up the polls soon!
     
  20. CoachRedd

    CoachRedd I come through in something real foolish

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    I've suffered 2 straight ass kickings ... fml.
     
  21. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    After updating with the games that have been played so far this week, I think i'm pretty happy with these new rankings. With a few good upsets this week, there is some nice updates.
    The Cal and Utah victories graded out to their biggest victories of the year. UCLA has a strong possibility of walking away with a #1 ranking with a win

    PS to fuzzy: your UNC loss to Iowa graded out as a 47.5. ouch
     
    Last edited: Jan 3, 2012
  22. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    IrishBearcat and Oshiomogho don't have the best records, but we can ball out!
     
  23. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    Entering Week 12
    1 Oregon St - 75.61 (7-2) -2.27
    2 UCLA - 73.55 (9-1) -1.92
    3 Washington St - 73.19 (6-3) 1.44
    4 Washington - 70.25 (8-1) -0.34
    5 Arizona St - 66.39 (6-3) -1.49
    6 Cal - 62.06 (5-4) 2.09
    7 Utah - 60.39 (5-4) 1.92
    8 Arizona - 57.68 (5-5) -1.07

    Big wins for WSU, Cal, and Utah help them out in the new computer polls.
     
  24. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    I guess moving up in points is good, although, it's not the same as moving up ranking.
     
  25. Oshiomogho

    Oshiomogho Donnie Darko

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    i guess 5 wins is good, although, it's not the same is 6 wins or more
     

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