Draft Expectations

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by antcap24, Apr 16, 2013.

  1. antcap24

    antcap24 Walk On

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    Shaun Mason

    I wanted to get some clarity before the draft on your take on drafting players way ahead of their projections. We had a discussion earlier today about it in the chat room talking about when is the right time to draft a player that you may have ranked on the top of your draft board but is slotted in the 4-7 rounds as far as projection.

    Some felt that if you were able to scout a guy and felt he was worth a 1st round pick , then you should take him where you got him on the draft board, and others felt that was something that was frowned upon.

    Being that tomorrow is the draft, if you can help us with what expectations are for this matter so we all know and are on the same page with this.

    I found this from a post you wrote in this thread that may pertain to this issue but was used as a determining factor if people were using a draft guide.

    http://forums.traditionsportsonline.com/threads/the-draft-and-draft-guides.94095/


    "Things I will be looking for:
    • You reaching early in the draft or reaching far above draft projection for players with Quick or Superstar development.
    • You getting "lucky" with high development players at a frequency that far exceeds the average of the league.
    I just want to make something clear:
    • There is no way to find Quick/Superstar development players through scouting except for scouting their development.
    • The probability that you spent 5K of points on players development rating and hit with a frequency that you "know who the good players are" is about the same as willing the lottery."
     
  2. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    I think if you find a gem, that's up to you to draft them. I think an abnormal frequency of "great" picks will jeopardize your spot in the TMFL going forward.
     
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  3. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

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    Having missed the last few drafts, this is something I've been particularly interested in. I've been told that most have thrown out the projections all together. Most say if you have a late round guy you love, take him in the 1st or 2nd-or someone else will.
     
  4. antcap24

    antcap24 Walk On

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    Ive waited the past few drafts for guys to drop closer to their projections to watch others snipe them way above projections and I would get a little upset thinking this wasn't something we were encouraged to do.
    I have no problem with it knowing we all have the ability to do so without abusing it mutiple times. I just felt some were drafting with reservations on picking those guys up early and other were not holding back causing some unsaid frustrations.
     
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  5. Matrix Monkey

    Matrix Monkey Walk On

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    I set my own round projections for guys, I semi-base them off their PDP.

    That said I only have 2 players on my board with a grade two or more rounds ahead of their PDP.

    As long as people aren't cheating and snagging the SS guys I don't have a problem with people drafting guys whenever.
     
  6. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    I wish next release has a easier to use , harder to abuse system. I think this late in cycle some of have realized what ratings matter and which ones don't. I also think the superstar ratings are blow out of proportion , I have only had one that really blew up and he is an offensive player. I think the coaching XP boost packages are more important than he played development ratings.

    For example look at my OLB Williams , when I scouted him his ratings were good but his AWR was and still is butt , I didn't get him I draft because I figured his AWR would make him shit. I picked him up on waivers and he is my second best OLB.

    IMO , which nobody asked for , this late in cycle you would have to go off statistically to really grow a guy with the 2-3 seasons we have left at best.

    Hopefully once Shaun's DND period ends he will tell us how new CCM won't have those issues again :)
     
  7. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    If this is an issue next release maybe we could look into having a system where everyone has to make a draft board to some degree , and submit to Shaun Mason right before the draft that can be reviewed after the fact to try to catch funny business ?

    Or even better , guys can just show some damn restraint and not try to cheat or hoard 700 picks. How much do we gain when we fuck over the rest of our league ?
     
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  8. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    Is there a way to cheat at this? I ask this seriously, because if there is I am not aware of it.
     
  9. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    [​IMG]
     
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  10. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    I love the Mon Calamari.

    Seriously though...is there a cheat at this?
     
  11. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    Yeah, becoming very familiar with the draft class in an offline file, just by coincidence. ;)
     
  12. bawvu97

    bawvu97 Let's Goooooo Mountaineers

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    Yes
     
  13. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    You must be a madden n00b lol


    There are websites that have list of what players have superstar potential , to my knowledge its not full ratings like xfn gave everybody ( in hindsight , that was fair at least ).

    We have agreed ( not that Shaun would have left it to us anyway ) to not use them.

    Before your time a member also had draft knowledge based on a offline file.


    So follow Shaun's rule of dont be a d-bag and you should be fine. Personally with 2 season left I don't care if guys have miss Cleo draft for them , all about who is better on the field at this point.
     
  14. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    And why did somebody not just tell Dakota this ? Is this what passes for content now ? Lol
     
  15. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    Uhhhh...there is no randomness to these classes? You have to be kidding me. NCAA is able to randomize its recruiting classes, but Madden has pre-set draft classes.
     
  16. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    While that does suck , there are more important fails ea has subjected is too before lol. All things considered this is the best madden bar none for what we do, so progress ;)
     
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  17. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    Agreed. I don't know shit from shine-ola about video game creation, but is it unreasonable to have multiple player builds that get random first/last name assignments?
     
  18. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    My attitude on players that I've got a high-round grade on:

    [​IMG]

    But seriously, I drafted near projections in all drafts. I've had utter shit drafts the first three times but then last time, I got three amazing starters and a quality backup even with following projections.

    Unfortunately, there are two or three guys that are so laughably projected that it might happen this time.
     
  19. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    In my opinion, it's simple...

    1. Are you using a draft guide?

    Yes... please leave TMFL now
    No... draft as you see fit
     
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  20. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    As far as my expectations?

    Well, I have 4 first round picks so I expect to do well, lol.

    As for the topic - I come up with my own grades for players but I am cognizant of where they are projected. I draft based on my own grades, not on projections thats basically 100% fictional.

    Some people say its obvious which players are Superstar or aren't but I think that's completely false. Some of the best players I have gotten have been normal progression and one of the worst I drafted was a Superstar. The only reason the Superstar guy is even on my roster is because A) Hes got Superstar progression and B) Its a position of weakness. I'll take guys that are game ready all damn day over turds with Superstar progression. Those guys aren't going to see the field for awhile after all.

    It comes down to development time and I just don't think there's enough time left in the cycle to really make a big deal about development one way or the other. Does it help? Of course, no one is disputing that. I just agree with Dan that it is mostly overblown at this point.

    My expectation is that everyone is going to have fun and enjoy the last few seasons we have left in this cycle. How's that for an expectation?
     
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  21. Raidernation

    Raidernation I can show you better than I can tell you

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    I second this notion, if I'm actually able to draft tomorrow there will be some gambles taken in round 2&3.
     
  22. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    I blame the rest of the people in this league.
     
  23. MoonBBad

    MoonBBad http://twitch.tv/moonbbad

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    IMO projections matter but they shouldn't be always followed. I really got into the weeds for this draft with my scouting (prob cause it was the first time this cycle I had a first rounder but that's now traded). I noticed a lot of top projections actually were crap and there were a lot of mid round projections that were better. Scouting really matters I found out. I'm going to draft based on my grades not projections.
     
  24. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

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    Can we trade draft picks for scouting info? :D

    Man it sounds like I am screwed. Hopefully I can get lucky and hit on a few good prospects.
     
  25. OMlawdog

    OMlawdog Going full Cheeze

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    If you have the scouting package (I do) and had it all season and then eliminate certain positions (WR or HB) and only scout two or three ratings at certain positions (OL), its pretty easy to figure out who the best players are on defense.

    Lets look at DL - what traits do you need to scout? - Strength, Blk Shed, Pursuit, Pwr Moves, Finesse Moves, Tackle, Awr, Acceleration; For DT, I wouldn't scout finesse moves; So that is roughly 800 points a player; I think its less because some of those I just listed are 50 points, so lets just call it 700 points a player. If you are drafting in the 20's, you can eliminate anyone ranked in the top 10; so in this year's model I have 39 DL total.

    WHat is important is to have a ranking of what attributes matter most to you. For me a DL comes down to strength and blck shed; If he is a DT and has C strength - I don't scout any more; There are four DT's that have C strength, that is all I scouted on those guys; Next is blk shed; If you have F as block shed, you are probably not getting scouted anymore; There is one DT with an F, he didn't get scouted anymore. Now i started with 19 DT's, now there are only 14 I need to scout, and I have only used roughly 500 points on these guys. With only 14 guys left I can have the entire DT class scouted as well as I want for less than 10K points, only 16% of my allotted points. The key is to stick with an order that makes sense based on the position. At DE, i run a 4-3, so speed is important for my DE - if they have D speed, they better have great strength and Pwr moves, and blk shed, because they must be a 3-4 DE and will be moved inside; If they don't, they don't get scouted.

    To me, the easiest positions to scout are OL and CB; I mean there are really only three attirbutes that matter for OL - Strength, Impact Blocking, Awr. If you want to spend an extra 100 on Run block and pass block you can. There are 29 total OL on my board, and these are the traits i have for all of them. Now I go strength first, and if anyone has a C strength, they don't get scouted; There was only one with C strength this year; If they have D Impact blocking - I don't scout anymore; Only one of those this year too; Once again, you have the basics of an entire OL class for less than 6K scouting points especially if you don't scout the top tier guys.

    Lastly, CB for me is the easiest what two traits matter the most? Man and zone coverage? Third for me is play recognition; Im pretty sure man cov and zone cov are only 50 points each, which means you can have the coverage skills for all 32 CBs discovered for 3200 points. Its a must; Now I will scout further if a guy has a C average. But if a guy has a D average - he ain't getting scouted. I have 10 guys that have less than a C average - which means they didn't get scouted after that; So that leaves 22 corners where I look at play recognition, then I go awr; By then you have a pretty good idea who the best guys are;

    I do this for every position that I scout in some form or fashion and with over 60K in scouting points its pretty easy to find good players also it makes it pretty easy on draft day to figure out where to go as long as you don't waste scouting points.
     
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