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(F14) The Draft Order: How It Was Made

Discussion in 'TSL World Cup' started by Broncos218, Nov 29, 2013.

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  1. Broncos218

    Broncos218 Walk On

    Feb 20, 2011
    Alright! Looks like the draft is under way (thanks to RedAL925 for getting that rolling) despite some last-minute hiccups. So how was the draft order determined? Glad you asked!

    We made a google doc that incorporated the criteria we wanted and assigned weights and values to it all. In the end, it looks like this:

    And so now that your head probably hurts looking at that, I'll try to explain what exactly is going on here:


    - In general, what we have here is a weighted system of (1) results from S7-S10, (2) total TFS seasons played, and (3) completion percentage. So in short, the better results you had over that period, the worse your draft position would be. But if you had long service time and a high completion percentage, that would help your position.

    - We assigned weights of 65% to results, 25% to seasons played, and 10% to completion percentage (the numbers highlighted in yellow at the bottom of doc).

    - In order to mesh all 3 components together, we have to somehow have all 3 with a common unit set. So to do that, there's rankings (1-28, all of current TFS) for each of the 3 categories, and then the 65-25-10 weights are applied to those rankings. In other words, you can't just add the raw values of points per game to completion percentage. So this allows us to create one final number, the WEIGHTED RANKS column.

    - For the 3 RANK columns, you can think of it as being 1=helps draft position and 28=hurts draft position. That's why shiftee is ranked #25 for PPG (I'll explain the 3 people with #26 later), but #1 for SERVICE TIME

    - Looking at the DRAFT POSITION compared to the TOTAL wPPG RANK (more on this calculation later), you can see how service time/completion % affects the overall positioning a bit.

    - Taken from the archives doc for total TFS completion percentage (anyone without any results from previous TFS seasons are ranked last here and thus are given a 0% completion percentage).

    - Titled SERVICE TIME in the doc, also taken from the archives doc. Just shows how many seasons have been completed.

    - Quick note about people who have at some point dropped out mid-season: their completion percentage in the archives doc reflects them not completing the second halves of their seasons, so the service time number was in essence rounded up to really reflect the number of seasons of pariticpation. For example, let's look at Cimmy. Cimmy has completed 2 full and 2 half seasons. His completion percentage of 75% reflects a percentage over 4 full seasons, not the 3 (2 + 1/2 + 1/2) where he actually played matches. To say he has 75% completion and only 3 seasons of service time would be double-penalizing someone.

    S7-S10 RESULTS
    - The most complex part of the whole thing is quantifying the results of each user from FIFA 13. So I'll try to go somewhat step-by-step in how these were made...

    - For each season from S7-S10, the doc shows each user's Serie level, games played, and total points. We then made a PPG column so you can easily see those totals too.

    - After entering in these totals, we made a wPTS column (weighted points). As you can see by looking at the Serie Level weights at the bottom, all Serie A points were weighted by 3, all B pts by 2, and all C pts by 1. (Also, anything in the doc with the "w"-something stands for weighted and that just means adjusted for Serie level weights)

    - We have to still make these totals on a per game basis due to incomplete games and people who dropped out early, so the wPPG column is wPTS/game. So this would be the weighted (by serie level) points per game.

    - To get a total number for S7-S10 totals with most recent results taking slightly more precedence, we made the season-by-season weights be S10 = 40%, S9 = 30%, S8 = 20%, and S7 = 10% (If you look down at the weights box at the bottom, you'll see these weights).

    - Now may be one of the trickiest parts to explain... for people who completed less than 4 seasons, we still need to weigh everything they've played out of 100%. Therefore, we took the same percentage of distribution used season-to-season above (40-30-20-10) to create the "Distribution" line in the weights table (100%-75%-50%-25%). So looking at the S10 weight as 100%, we took 75% of the S10 total to create the S9 weight, 50% of the S10 total to create the S8 weight, and 25% of the S10 total to create the S7 weight. With this distribution in mind, you can see in the weights box how each season would be weighted if a user played less than 4 seasons... If it's tough to think about, think of it as simply being 40-30-20-10 for 4 season'ers, roughly 45-35-20 for 3 season'ers, and roughly 60-40 for 2 season'ers, but then just adding math to create numbers more in line with the 40-30-20-10 thinking and not just arbitrary numbers.

    - Alright, so after weighing the FIFA 13 seasons with more recent results carrying more weight, we get the TOTAL wPPG number. So for example, for someone like myself with 4 FIFA 13 season played, my TOTAL wPPG would be 40% of my Season 10's wPPG, 30% of my Season 9's wPPG, 20% of S8's wPPG, and 10% of S9's wPPG. So in the end, this step creates an overall weighted average of my wPPG each season.

    - And with that all completed, I can create a ranking like the SERVICE TIME and COMPLETION % columns that go into making the overall "magic" number (the WEIGHTED RANKS number)

    And in the end, we can put in order from lowest to highest the WEIGHTED RANKS column to get our overall draft position.

    Why do 3 people have 100.00 in the TOTAL wPPG column?
    These people have no results from S7-10, and thus are to be ranked last in the RANK category for this criteria. Therefore, 100.00 was entered as dummy data to ensure the RANK for these people would be last (so in the end, putting 100.00 here is no different than 8.00. The only number that goes into the final "magic" number that is WEIGHTED RANKS is the 26 for these people in the respective RANK column).

    I thought there were only 24 spots for WC qualification, why are there 28 people in the draft order?
    The 28 just represents all of current TFS. See, originally, the WC process was to be a 32-team tournament that included all teams from Serie A, B, and C. However, with PS4 out on the market and a dwindling number of users in Serie C, it's starting to look more and more like we may need to consolidate down to just Serie A and B as soon as next season. Looking long-term for FIFA 14, a 12-12 A-B system is likely the most stable system for future seasons, meaning we would have 24 TFS club teams and 24 int'l teams (or in other words, every person involved in TFS would have both a club and int'l team).

    That still doesn't explain what will happen when we get to pick #25.
    We had some contingency plans in place that likely would have just delayed a few people from selecting their teams until someone dropped out, but with Edgar Calderon looking out, plus 3 people now announcing that they will not be back next season, we no longer have to worry about any sort of overflow. This is why we have asked anyone planning to not play Season 12 to skip their pick, because if anyone selects an int'l team and then quits before the start of Season 12, we will have to rescind their int'l team as well. As of now though, a maximum of 24 will draft.

    Will this whole method be used again for the next World Cup we hold on FIFA 15?
    While we could make changes here and there (and plus it is kinda early) we will still likely find a way to incorporate past results, service time, and completion percentage at the very least. So this may be something to keep in mind as each future season goes by.

    Did you also invent the FIFA international rankings? Because I can't understand those either.
    No. I do not understand why Uruguay, Colombia, and Switzerland are all ranked higher than Italy or the Netherlands either :)
    • Like Like x 6
  2. MiaFLSurf

    MiaFLSurf Losing in the 90th

    Sep 1, 2012
    I dont understand. :)
    • Like Like x 1
  3. Go Devils

    Go Devils Agnostic Pastafarian

    Jun 21, 2011
    Thanks guys for spending all those weeks putting this together. I know a bunch of people had a hand in deciding who drafted where and why. For those of you angry, please understand a TON of discussion took place to make this draft process as fair as possible and Broncos218 came up with a bunch of differently weighted systems before it was agreed upon by both good owners and bad ones. So if you are unhappy with where you landed in the draft, take a breath and take this in.
    • Like Like x 2
  4. Frenchie1916

    Frenchie1916 Just a clodhopper of footballer, running pell mell

    Sep 22, 2011
    Says the guy who drafted first. :rolleyes:

    As I said before, long-term sucking finally pays off and everything's coming up Frenchie!!

    • Like Like x 1
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