WORLD CUP TIME!!! RedAL925 has already announced some details in the World Cup Discussion thread, but now it's time for the rest of us to know where we'll be picking come draft time! The system to determine the draft order remained exactly the same as last cycle's, except using the last 4 seasons for the results component (could only do 2 seasons last time as many of you joined post-PS3). But enough talking, let's see that draft order!!!... So Andanas paid me the most bribe money, with Frenchie1916 a close second. But seriously, the google doc below lays out everything that went into the determining the draft order: (If spreadsheet doesn't appear, try going here) So what's going on here? I'll explain... (same as last year btw) OVERALL/GENERAL STUFF - In general, what we have here is a weighted system of (1) results from S14-S17, (2) total TSL seasons played, and (3) match completion. So in short, the better results you had over that period, the worse your draft position would be. But if you had long service time and a high completion rate, that would help your position. - We assigned weights of 65% to results, 10% to seasons played, and 25% to match completion (the numbers highlighted in yellow at the bottom of doc). - In order to mesh all 3 components together, we have to somehow have all 3 with a common unit set. So to do that, there's rankings (1-33, everyone returning from last season) for each of the 3 categories, and then the 65-10-25 weights are applied to those rankings. In other words, you can't just add the raw values of points per game to number of seasons completed. So this allows us to create one final number, the WEIGHTED RANKS column. - For the 3 RANK columns, you can think of it as being 1=helps draft position and 33=hurts draft position. That's why Zikry is ranked #32 for PPG, but #2.5 for SERVICE TIME. - For any ties in the RANK columns, the RANK was adjusted to the average of the ranks. For example, 4 people have 17 completed seasons, but rather than all 4 ranked #1, or randomly choosing to rank them #1 through #4, we took the average of those ranks, thus giving them all a rank of #2.5 (this explains why some ranks end in .5). - Looking at the DRAFT POSITION compared to the TOTAL wPPG RANK (more on this calculation later), you can see how service time/completion affects the overall positioning a bit. TOTAL SEASONS PLAYED - Titled SERVICE TIME in the doc, and taken from the TSL archives doc. Just shows how many seasons have been completed. - People who have at some point dropped out mid-season are highlighted in gray and have had their numbers rounded up to show the total number of seasons they participated in. The reason for doing this as opposed to noting a half-season played (such as 14.5) is due to the match completion criteria (explained next). Had we kept service time at a half season, the half-season'er would have incorrectly been double-penalized from the two categories. Another way of looking at this is that match completion in the next section represents the person's completion rate over the number of full seasons they have participated in. MATCH COMPLETION - The match completion "points" system can be best explained as such: each season, each person receives 1 "point" for completing all of their matches. Miss 1 game, and you get docked a point, thus finishing with 0 points for that season. Miss 2 games, and you get docked 2 points, so you actually finish with -1 point for the season (the full per-season table breakdown is in the bottom-right of the google doc). - Seasons played and games missed were both taken from the TSL archives. S14-S17 RESULTS - The most complex part of the whole thing is quantifying the results of each user from FIFA 15. So I'll try to go somewhat step-by-step in how these were made... - The results component is exactly the same as the one we originally used when we tried the World Cup on FIFA 14, and again for FIFA 15. Back then, we evaluated people from S7-S10, and thus did the same 4-season evaluation this time around. - Forall seasons, the doc shows each user's Serie level, games played, and total points. We then made a PPG column so you can easily see those totals too. - After entering in these totals, we made a wPTS column (weighted points). As you can see by looking at the Serie Level weights at the bottom, all Serie A points were weighted by 3, all B pts by 2, and all C pts by 1. (Also, anything in the doc with the "w"-something stands for weighted and that just means adjusted for Serie level weights) - We have to still make these totals on a per game basis due to incomplete games, people who dropped out early, and differing number of teams per league, so the wPPG column is wPTS/game. So this would be the weighted (by serie level) points per game. - To get a total number for S14-S17 totals with most recent results taking slightly more precedence, we used the following format: S17 = 40%, S16 = 30%, S15 = 20%, and S14 = 10% (If you look down at the weights box at the bottom, you'll see these weights). But for people with less than 4 seasons of data... - I'll start with an example. For people with 2 seasons played (say S16-S17), we still need to weigh everything they've played out of 100%. Therefore, we took the same percentage of distribution used season-to-season above (40-30-20-10) to create the "Distribution" line in the weights table (100%-75%-50%-25%). That means looking at the most recent season's (S17) weight as 100%, the previous season before that (S16) would be 75% of that weight total, then the season before that (which would've been S15 had this person played 4 seasons) would've been 50% of the most recent season's weight total, and so on. With this distribution in mind, you can see in the weights box how each season would be weighted if a user played less than 4 seasons... So for people with 2 seasons played, it comes out to roughly a 60-40 weight distribution, but just adding math to create numbers more in line with the 40-30-20-10 original distribution and not just arbitrary numbers. And for those with just 1 season played, obviously their one season is 100% of their results total (so they aren't penalized for having played less seasons). - Alright, so after weighing the FIFA 15 seasons with more recent results carrying more weight, we get the TOTAL wPPG number. So for example, for someone like myself with 4 FIFA 15 seasons played, my TOTAL wPPG would be 40% of my Season 17's wPPG, 30% of my Season 16's wPPG, and so on. So in the end, this step creates an overall weighted average of my wPPG each season. - And with that all completed, I can create a ranking like the SERVICE TIME and COMPLETION PTS columns that go into making the overall "magic" number (the WEIGHTED RANKS number) And in the end, we can put in order from lowest to highest the WEIGHTED RANKS column to get our overall draft position. FAQ Why are some people in highlighted in red? These people already have a team due to placing a Heritage claim, have chosen to keep their team due to a top-3 finish in the last World Cup, or have chosen to sit out (thus will not be participating in the draft). So looking at the top few picks, you'll see PhiGuy179 with pick #4, Feverpitch57 claiming Argentina, and then KJLamb23 up at #5 overall instead of #6 as the original order determined. Will this whole method be used again for the next World Cup we hold on FIFA 17? While we could make changes here and there (and plus it is kinda early) we will still likely find a way to incorporate past results, service time, and match completion at the very least. And this process was exactly the same as the one we used last cycle. So this may be something to keep in mind as each future season goes by. Hmm, so I should really work hard to make sure I complete all my matches from now on? Yes If you have any other questions, post here and I'll be able to explain it further. The draft is set to officially open WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 18, so get practicing with those int'l teams!