Keller ZCar352 This is a very long post but at the least, I hope you two read it all the way through. Everyone else, here you go if interested. I did a surface-level look at how our league was tracking vs the NFL back in season 1 (2014). You can see the results of that here: https://traditionsportsonline.com/threads/hard-at-work-vs-nfl-a-look-at-the-data.113348/ Since things were pretty in-line at the time, I didn't dig much deeper. But we're a couple seasons later, player skill has increased, rosters have changed, and perhaps most importantly, confidence has majorly affected how the game plays at our slider set. Keller tweaked a couple sliders before the season (dropped RBK a couple points), but we need a more significant slider adjustment moving forward. Offenses have improved drastically since 2014. One note: after much deliberation, I have decided to remove both Tennessee and Toronto from the below stats. We're trying to examine gameplay, and both of these are nearly entirely simmed teams that skew the data bigtime with their super-low #s. No examination is going to be perfect, but these two teams at the moment are not indicative whatsoever of actual gameplay. So, let's take a look... League Overview HAW is scoring at a 19.8% higher rate than the NFL. Across the league, we run about 8% fewer plays. So factoring in the # of plays, we are actually scoring at a 30% higher rate than the NFL. This is staggeringly high! Especially when you consider that back in Season 1 (green line above), scoring was generally much lower than it is now and much closer to the NFL. Total yardage is much higher at the top of the league than it was in 2014--by about 100 yards/game (!!). Toward the middle the gap narrows, but still higher. This wouldn't be as big of a deal, as it's not far off from the NFL, except again, we run fewer plays. The other concern is at the bottom--our league drops off well below NFL #s. So: let's break out the run & pass games separately and see what we find. Passing Offense A lot to take in here, but the general takeaway is the same--passing has become way, way too good. Yards per Completion is off the chains (our league avg is 16.8% higher than the NFL!), and most of the league is putting up Completion %'s far above the NFL. What gets concerning, again, is completion % at the bottom of the league currently--we really don't want to see that # fall lower than it already is. But for the most part, teams are attempting fewer passes than NFL teams (~9% fewer pass attempts league-wide, and possibly even fewer for some teams at the top of the league) yet putting up HUGE yardage/efficiency numbers. To put some perspective on these graphs: 8 HAW teams are higher than the NFL league-leading team in Completion %, which was 69.2% by New Orleans. 6 of those 8 are over 70%, and Minnesota leads at 75.7%. 11 teams are higher than the top NFL team in terms of Yards per Passing Attempt, many by huge margins. DAL led the NFL with 8.4. We have four teams over 10, and another 5 over 9. Yards per Completion may be the most eye-popping of all. Pittsburgh leads with 16.9--the NFL league leader was Cleveland () at 12.6. In addition to Freak, we have an additional 15 teams (!!) who are better than 12.6--which, again, led the NFL this season. tldr; Passing is unreal this season. Rushing Offense Diving deeper than this per team is a little trickier at the moment due to some DaddyLeagues weirdness tracking players across teams. But it's still very possible to look at league-wide efficiency: NFL yards per carry: 4.1 HAW yards per carry: 4.4 That may not seem like a large gap (7%), but I'm quite sure from looking at the higher levels of the league, the gap is even wider. The top team in HAW looks to be averaging nearly 6 ypc. Conclusions OK, so we have these pretty graphs--now what? I would like to posit a few things: Although rushing numbers are also high, the gap between HAW & NFL is far more pronounced in the passing game than it is in the running game. Thus my opinion is the passing sliders should be tweaked fairly significantly. I believe that rushing effectiveness might be as high as it is because of how good passing has become--that is, once passing #s come down a bit, defenses might be able to key on stopping the run just slightly better. In other words, I would advise against dropping run-blocking sliders or upping tackle sliders at the risk of over-adjusting things too quickly. I realize run & pass efficiency are intertwined--when a team averages an absurdly high YPC, their passing efficiency will be super high as well. But between the two, passing/coverage seems to be the better place to start--for now. So, passing. How do we reduce the gaudy #s without tanking the bottom of the league into oblivion? I personally advise dropping QB Acc and raising Pass Coverage. Couple thoughts on this: In season 1, passing #s across the board were much lower, yet the bottom of the league wasn't mysteriously unable to pass at all (in fact, they were better statistically than a couple of our teams at the moment). I feel like at the very bottom of the passing spectrum, the two issues are decision-making (which can be improved), and roster (namely, offensively line, which can be improved). I could be off on this, and if so we'll know pretty quickly. But I'm not sure the above changes are going to drastically hit the bottom of the league the way they (hopefully...) will the top/middle. Again, nobody knows for sure, but that is the hope. At the very least, it drops everyone's passing equally--and that in my eyes is a good thing. If it drops the top end of the league more than the bottom, that's a bonus. I would strongly advise against raising Pass Defense Reaction Time or dropping WR Catching. My reasoning is that Pass Coverage is one thing--closes windows, fewer guys wide open. Moving accuracy reduces the chances that everyone with any type of QB whatsoever can fit the ball 95% of the time into tight windows. But Pass D Reaction Time is what leads to ridiculous jumps on the ball before it's even thrown. We want to reward & punish decision-making as best we can, I believe, and reduce player frustration. PDRT leads to the latter and not sure it does a great job with the former. Reducing WR Catch also I believe is an artificial solution to the problem that will only lead to people getting mad, as it just increases the random component of the game when there are already enough of those. Defensive stats are harder to get at in HAW. But I was able to look at the league average for Sacks. NFL teams average 2.37 per game, and HAW teams average 2.19 sacks per game. Given we also attempt fewer passes, I would advise against dropping pass blocking at this time. In reality it's more complex than that, since the Confidence mechanic impacts offensive lines more than any other position, thus sadly I suspect sack #s are heavily skewed between the top & bottom of the league... but nothing we can do about that. In conclusion, my personal recommendation is as follows: QB Accuracy: drop significantly. Pass Coverage: raise a medium amount. WR Catching, Pass D Reaction Time, Pass Blocking: do not touch. Hopefully this continues a good dialogue going on in chat. I'm not pretending to have all the answers, but I feel like the above will improve gameplay and bring it more in line with the NFL, like we had in Season 1.