Helli's Defensive Rankings: 2015

Discussion in 'The Tradition' started by Hellisan, Nov 3, 2012.

  1. Hellisan

    Hellisan Schemin 'em up

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    Helli's Defensive Rankings for 2015

    Same as last year..... Using the defensive statistics that are available in the team stats, I have compiled rankings of our team's defenses for 2015. To do this, I used four categories:

    - Suppression of Yards - How many yards we allow per game
    - Suppression of Points - Self Explanatory
    - Explosive Plays - Fumble Recoveries and Interceptions, and then a certain percentage of our total sacks (sacks * 0.375 is what I calculated to be a good number... Obviously, a sack is not as valuable as a turnover.
    - Red Zone Defense - Our ability to suppress points once the offense gets in the red zone.

    To me, the ability to simply suppress points is the most important aspect of a defense. How they do that is of no consequence. I would normally figure to give that extra weight. However, with Red Zone defense being one of the four categories, and being tied in so closely with points suppression overall, I felt it gave this aspect of a defense a lot of weight if I gave each category equal consideration in this analysis. Remember, explosive plays eventually lead to scores and short fields for a team's offense so it must be considered. When I first did this, I had smalls and I tied for fifth... until he pointed out that I was using the offensive red zone numbers for our teams. OOPS. Putting in the right numbers shot us to a tie for first in my numbers... So without further ado, here are my defensive ratings for 2015.

    One major change is that I manually tallied the plays teams allowed per game on defense - how many plays they faced in each game, totaled that, and then divided by the games played. So if you are an offensive powerhouse and you think that should factor in, well now it does.

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    1) MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS
    Suppression of Yards: 2nd
    Suppression of Points: 1st
    Explosive Plays: 2nd
    Red Zone Defense: 5th

    bravejaf has really done a great job with this team - getting points off them is like squeezing blood from a stone! The only knock against him is he played a ground and pound team, an offensively inept turnover prone team, and a guy that was on autopilot in three of his four user games. He played pretty well on defense against Texas A&M however, holding them to 11 first downs. I think this squad is the real deal on D. If it weren't for a mid-season slump on offense, we might have seen great things from this team this year. They only allowed 2.33 red zone attempts per game by opposing offenses, showing a knack for keeping teams away from that side of the field. They were third in the league (among user teams) in both INT and sacks.

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    2) ARKANSAS RAZORBACKS
    Suppression of Yards: 1st
    Suppression of Points: 2nd
    Explosive Plays: 7th
    Red Zone Defense: 1st

    Twister18 had a phenomenal season on defense. They were first in yards allowed either way you look at it, total yards per game or yards allowed per play. They were also extremely difficult to score upon in the red zone. Consider also, they played some of the toughest user offenses around and held them below season averages. There is a mitigating factor here... Their total plays allowed per game isn't lowest in the league - in fact it is toward the lower end of mid pack. However, against users, they take clock running to desperate measures, and as a result of that AND good defense allow an extremely low number of plays to other user teams which may skew the stats slightly. For instance, they held one user team to 28 plays (while shutting them out) and on back to back weeks allowed that game and 39 plays to another user team - running the ball 35 times and passing 3 times against brave... I'd like to see the pct. of runs and passes remain RELATIVELY similar to what you'd see against the cpu in user games, although sometimes a particular game dictates the play style. Twister knew brave was in an offensive slump and did the smart thing... I guess... bit extreme. Nevertheless, they unquestionably performed excellent against CPU and user teams and finish 2nd in my rankings.

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    3) SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS
    Suppression of Yards: 3rd (T)
    Suppression of Points: 4th
    Explosive Plays: 1st
    Red Zone Defense: 7th

    HotRod and the Gamecocks are fastidiously attempting to become the best at everything, as their rise in the defensive rankings attests. To move up further, they'll need to do a little better in the red zone. They allowed the second fewest red zone attempts of any team, but once teams got into the red zone they averaged 4.23 points per trip, which was mid-pack. Their insanely good offense gets the other team behind and forces them to throw the ball, and the defense was ready for it, leading the league in interceptions. What more can you say, this is a team that has talent and knows what to do with it. For what it's worth, this defense faced 58.08 plays per game, an identical number to Tennessee, which won't be compared to the Gamecocks yet offensively.
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    4) MARYLAND TERRAPINS
    Suppression of Yards: 5th (T)
    Suppression of Points: 5th
    Explosive Plays: 3rd
    Red Zone Defense: 4th

    mboda puts a premium on explosive athletes and boy do they ever play like it. They were effective in every category and probably would have finished higher in the defensive ranks if it weren't for some mitigating factors. Look for this team to compete for Top 3 honors annually. They were 10th among user teams in rushing yards allowed, and second in passing yards allowed, due mostly to a couple bad games.
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    5) GEORGIA TECH YELLOWJACKETS
    Suppression of Yards: 3rd (T)
    Suppression of Points: 3rd
    Explosive Plays: 6th
    Red Zone Defense: 8th

    A smlVICTORIES53 team is usually going to be pretty tough on defense. The only thing that really dropped off from last year was red zone defense. They allowed the third fewest red zone opportunities of any defense, but allowed 4.27 points per red zone attempt to opposing offenses. If you ask me, you can pretty much mix and match the 3rd through 5th defenses in my rankings and there was a pretty significant drop from #5 to #6 this year. The key to this squad is they are stout against the pass (4th) as well as the running game (2nd) so no real weaknesses. They don't take many chances on defense, so they don't get a ton of explosive plays, but their consistency makes up for it.
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    6) VIRGINIA CAVALIERS
    Suppression of Yards: 9th
    Suppression of Points: 7th
    Explosive Plays: 4th
    Red Zone Defense: 6th

    The Cavaliers fell off dramatically from last year's rankings, when they were ranked second. The primary cause for the drop can probably be attributed to the secondary, where they lost their top three corners and really had nobody good to replace them with. The coach didn't seem to get the memo, as he kept gambling. The team allowed the second fewest number of total offensive plays per game to the opposing team, but allowed a league worst 6.79 yards per play overall. The game doesn't track defensive third down conversion % (ability to get off the field, which I will try and add to next year's rankings manually) but I'd bet we were among the best there. We just couldn't stop giving up big plays overall.
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    7) TENNESSEE VOLUNTEERS
    Suppression of Yards: 5th (T)
    Suppression of Points: 10th
    Explosive Plays: 9th
    Red Zone Defense: 3rd

    jfosh and the Vols don't allow a lot of yards, and they are stout in the red zone. Good combo, one would suppose. The defense doesn't make a ton of big plays (which sets up the offense for easy points over the long haul).
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    8) NORTH CAROLINA TARHEELS
    Suppression of Yards: 8th
    Suppression of Points: 8th
    Explosive Plays: 10th
    Red Zone Defense: 2nd

    Gravity and his squad ranked a surprising second to last in sacks and couldn't make interceptions when they got the chance. However, they were the second toughest team in the red zone, allowing a mere 3.64 points per attempt to the other team. The root of their struggles was against the run, where they were second to last among user teams, likely due to the super simming which should stop unless they'd prefer to be replaced. :)
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    9) TEXAS A&M AGGIES
    Suppression of Yards: 10th
    Suppression of Points: 9th
    Explosive Plays: 5th
    Red Zone Defense: 9th (tied)

    MaxATX34 and the Aggies haven't quite grasped the SEC style of defense after moving over from the Big 12 a few years ago. They make a lot of big plays on D, which go a long way toward mitigating their struggles in other areas, but they allowed the most passing yards of any team in the league.
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    10) NC STATE WOLFPACK
    Suppression of Yards: 7th
    Suppression of Points: 6th
    Explosive Plays: 12th
    Red Zone Defense: 11th

    I guess I was surprised to see NYJuggalo45 this low in the rankings because he is a hard nosed, defensive-minded coach but they do have personnel issues to be concerned with. At the end of the day they were average in yards and points allowed but dead last in explosive plays, and second to last in red zone D.
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    11) BOSTON COLLEGE EAGLES
    Suppression of Yards: 10th
    Suppression of Points: 11th
    Explosive Plays: 8th
    Red Zone Defense: 9th

    When I think of Mogriffjr I think of a pretty tough, though gambling, defensive player. His lack of team ability started to catch up to him this year and the Eagles were generally bad across the board. He is getting some decent recruits into the program just in time.
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    12) MISSOURI
    Suppression of Yards: 12th
    Suppression of Points: 12th
    Explosive Plays: 11th
    Red Zone Defense: 12th

    :( Picked a bad time to move, when the league was moving fast. Next time wait till the league slows down to buy a house, and when there are no natural disasters jms493 !!!!! My personal challenge to you is to finish above 10th in the rankings next year... Play tough!
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    If anybody feels like looking at my calculations for this, they can do so****HERE****
     
    Last edited: Nov 3, 2012
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  2. jms493

    jms493 Veteran Member

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    Amazing job Hellizan. :Applaud:
     
  3. bravejaf

    bravejaf Walk On

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    I am surprised my team finished #1 with a B rated defense and only 2 seniors on defense. Next year I should have everyone back except MLB McKinney and FS Calhoun. McCormick will step in for McKinney, and with progression McCormick may be a higher rated player. FS Antone is a class behind Calhoum but only 1 point lower in overall rating. I anticipate my team will be an A- next year with the new recruits and player progression.

    Oh and if you included bowl stats I'd probably be down a few spots. Michigan shredded my defense, averaging almost 8 yards per offensive play and throwing just 1 incomplete pass.
     
  4. MaxATX34

    MaxATX34 Texas Football

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    Awesome as always.

    As far as my pass D goes... I dont really know what to say. Seems like the CPU is money against me unless I get a sack or user a pick. It seems like the only thing I can do against the pass is blitz like crazy, but if I did that any more than I already do my sack #'s would be outlandish.

    Of course, when you have overwhelming talent and speed on offense the defense doesn't matter as much. ;)
     
  5. Hellisan

    Hellisan Schemin 'em up

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    Yeah but what happens when you play another team that also has great talent on offense!? LOL
     
  6. MaxATX34

    MaxATX34 Texas Football

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    Hope to be on the good end of lag and luck ;)
     
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  7. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    I didnt supersim like the last 3 games. JUST SAYIN DUDES. I have been working on it. Motivation is weak in this one.
     
  8. Mogriffjr

    Mogriffjr Walk On

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    Yeah i figured losing my top CB's would hurt my defense. We are very young at key parts and particularly not good in other areas. The defense may take another 2 seasons for it to be respectable. Good stuff Helli!
     
  9. HotRod

    HotRod You ain't bout dat life!

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    Always love threads like these, great job Hellisan
     
  10. Hellisan

    Hellisan Schemin 'em up

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    Thanks man. I have plans to add to it, we'll see if that comes to fruition.
     
  11. Mogriffjr

    Mogriffjr Walk On

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    I'd have to look at this...maybe get some pointers to do one for the offense...
     
  12. Mogriffjr

    Mogriffjr Walk On

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    Good to see I was dead last in defense (can't count JMS, he was out half the year lol).

    Hey my CB's were tops in awards, that has to account for something right???
     

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