L1: Final Week Preview

Discussion in 'TFL: League 1 Red' started by Dylema, Aug 25, 2011.

Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.
  1. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    I know I'm not someone who normally contributes articles and the like but as I'm deep in the promotion battle I am going to look up this sort of thing anyway. Also for purposes of this writing I am going to assume the change to drop all of Kerb's game although that is not official as of right now.

    As it stands I think Headache, Kerb, and Bryan are the only ones not in a particular battle. Cole can still climb out although he needs more then I thought he did. If we eliminate Kerb's games he is level on points with Merih although Merih would have a game in hand. However Liverpool will have Sevilla and Atletico and will need a shock result to stay up if Bayern can manage atleast a draw against Hamburg, Villareal, or Atletico.

    The table would be as follows:
    1. Lyon 33 (12) 2.75
    2. At. Madrid 21 (13) 1.62
    3. Sevilla 19 (11) 1.72
    4. Zenit 19 (13) 1.46
    5. Hamburg 17 (12) 1.42
    6. Villareal 16 (12) 1.33
    7. Bayern 15 (13) 1.15
    8. Liverpool 15 (14) 1.07
    9. Valencia/Porto 7 (14) .5
    10 Dortmund - N/A

    If you take the pace at which teams have been earning points (PPM) then Sevilla jumping Atletico would be the only changes. This also shows that the battle may come down to Atletico, Zenit, Hamburg, and Villareal as all 4 teams are within .3 PPM. However looking at the schedule shows Sevilla in a possibly precarious position despite their games in hand.

    So let's highlight some big games for the 5 clubs still in the tight battle for promotion

    Sevilla: Despite being my favorite to secure the second spot they still have to go through the likes of Lyon, Villareal, and Hamburg, three teams who still have a legitimate claim at promotion, as well as Liverpool who are in a fight to stay up and Porto who are capable of a shock result. There are no easy games in L1 in this season but Sevilla could very well find them selves with 19 points still after 2 or 3 games and lose their PPM advantage.

    At. Madrid: Madrid will have to deal with Hamburg who are looking to steal their spot in the top 3 as well as two teams locked in the relegation battle in Bayern and Liverpool. All 3 of these teams will be hungry for wins and will not back down from the challenge the Atletico presents.

    Zenit: Zenit find themselves with two big fixtures out of their final 3 with Lyon and Villareal standing in their way, as well as Porto. Zenit have been an up and down team all year so it's hard to predict these matches. I would honestly say they could get 9 but they could also very well get 0. Zenit have been a wild card but with their recent form I'd tip them for 6 points.

    Hamburg: Could this be the team who puts on a run in the final week to secure promotion? It certainly a possiblity playing both Sevilla and Atltico. These could be huge wins for them and hurt their promotion foes. They will however will have to face Lyon which could be tough and Bayern who will put up a strong fight to hold on to their L1 spot.

    Villareal: They also can do damage directly to teams above them when they face off against both Zenit and Sevilla, but also must contend with league leaders Lyon as well as a tough Bayern squad. They could see them selves quickly rising up the table if they can pull of some big wins down the stretch.

    So there will be some matches with big implications down the stretch as these 5 will meet atleast one team in the battle for promotion. Here are games to look out for

    Sevilla - Villareal
    Zenit 2 - 0 Villareal
    Hamburg 2 - 3 Atletico
    Sevilla 3 - 5 Hamburg

    4 promotion contenders will also have to play current league leaders Lyon:
    Hamburg - Lost
    Sevilla - Lost
    Zenit - Drew
    Villareal - Lost

    2 Promotion contenders also play the current bottom team:
    Sevilla
    Zenit - Draw

    These 10 games could go a long way of determining who goes up and who stays. Any win over an opponent in the race with you would be detrimental to them. Any points won against the top team would be huge and any lost to the last place team could also provide a huge change to your chances.

    Updates:
    C 1. Lyon 43 (16)
    P 2. At. Madrid 27 (15)
    3. Zenit 24 (16)
    4. Hamburg 20 (15)
    5. Sevilla 19 (13)
    6. Villareal 16 (14)
    7. Bayern 15 (13)
    8. Liverpool 15 (15)
    9. Valencia/Porto 8 (15)
    10 Dortmund - N/A

    Hamburg strikes a big victory over Sevilla, putting them selves in third with Sevilla a point behind but with a game in hand. If Sevilla lose to Villareal then we could see 3 teams on 19 points through 13 games in Sevilla, Villareal, and Zenit all waiting to pounce on a mistake by either Atletico or Hamburg.

    Lyon does damage to all of their opponents but Zenit manages to grab atleast 1 out of their game with Lyon after surrendering 2 too Porto the game before.

    And then there were two, with Hamburg's loss to Atletico and Zenit beating Villareal only Zenit and Sevilla are eligible for the final promotion spot. Atletico are no locks to go up.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  2. GovernedSpy

    GovernedSpy Walk On

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2011
    Messages:
    2,494
    nice work man its is absolutely crazy this season i know if i can win 3 or 4 i will go up but if i lose 2 or 3 i could get relegated mental
     
  3. Timpegoose

    Timpegoose Walk On

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    7,157
    Even though I'm 2nd in PPM I feel like I have an uphill climb for promotion. I still have to play some very good teams, including hedache who has given me a loss, and Colemanchu and elprez98 who both always play me tough. It'll be interesting to see how it turns out.
     
  4. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    I find it interesting that team outside of the promotion race could be the biggest factor. Lyon has been playing great and plays 4 of the team chasing promotion and any points won against them might give someone the leg up. Let's just see if he'll let off the gas or go for the wins.
     
  5. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    Unfortunately, after some recent events and developments I have no desire to do much with Lyon anymore. So those who have to play me have a better chance at grabbing points than all the others that are left behind. Come in and play your best and I bet you will not leave empty handed with an unmotivated Lyon director in place waiting for the end of his contract so he can move on to more exciting ground and less drama.
     
  6. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    You know Lyon has a Turkish football director, which rumor says he left Turkey right after the arrests started about the match fixing cases. How big of a controversy is this for L1 now. What will happen next? What will Lyon do? Those who have to play me, bidding starts now. PM me your orders of shish kebabs the way you like it for the right price (referral to phone conversation records from Turkish match fixing evidence) :p
     
  7. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    I'm going to try to update the first post to keep a close view on this race.
     
  8. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2010
    Messages:
    9,510
    Haha... oh boy.
     
  9. Blaza

    Blaza In Arsene Wenger I Trust

    Joined:
    Apr 17, 2009
    Messages:
    6,181
    You didn't like Lyon? How come, I thought they were a blast.
     
  10. AJ Hart MN

    AJ Hart MN Marseille - TFL Season 1 Champions

    Joined:
    Oct 16, 2009
    Messages:
    8,710
    I take full responsibility for the hiring and now firing of hedache. A great club like Lyon doesn't need the constant distractions that such a arrogent manager brings. I look forward to taking Galatasaray to the woodshed in FIFA '12. If it's Juve, Lyon, Marseille or PSG, we'll circle those fixture's every matchday and don't be surprised if we put in a 6th very late :p
     
  11. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    If you consider winning fun, Lyon is a blast. But like once a wise man said, with great power comes great responsibility :p
    I don't want to deal with the consequences of that, especially under some circumstances that don't need to be announced here. I'm moving back to Galatasaray and fight for a mid table position and hopefully upset a guy or two like you.

    Firing??? I am resigning. Lyon would love to have me forever. Tell me who did a better job with Lyon before my era. Tell me if anyone has allowed only 3 goals in 12 games with any team. You'd have to be nuts to fire a football director like that. Which brings me to:

    Who's arrogAnt now? Stop stirring shit or I will spill a whole pot of shit on you :p
     
  12. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    7,707
    I played Lyon, wasn't impressed....
     
    • Like Like x 1
  13. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    :D

    You can say whatever you want my friend. You are the one that scored 2 of the 3 goals on me this season (by the way, it is 3 goals in 12 games, the 4th was by kreb that got cancelled). Even though Cole doesn't stand at a great place in the standings, he can play when he's motivated. Like being the little creature trying to poke a giant's eye. It did make me itchy though, that win and the goal you scored.
     
  14. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

    Joined:
    Feb 23, 2009
    Messages:
    7,707
    thanks i think?
     
  15. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    Think! :)
     
  16. elprez98

    elprez98 Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 21, 2011
    Messages:
    1,962
    I don't want to hear that. You'd better play everyone tough. Except me, of course.
     
  17. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    After all I wasn't a factor at all I guess :). I beat 3 of those teams and tied Zenit. So while it looked like you lost 2 points in that game Dylema it was actually a point gained towards others.
     
  18. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    If only I didn't blow that 2 goal lead to Porto I'd be sitting pretty decently right now. But thanks to you I'm not out of this quite yet.

    After looking at the possibilities There is a way for me to go up but I only have a couple series of results that would make that happen. But they are very possible results.
     
  19. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    Someone needs to capture so we can see who's sitting where. :)
     
  20. GovernedSpy

    GovernedSpy Walk On

    Joined:
    Apr 8, 2011
    Messages:
    2,494
    crazy stuff really win or bust between Villareal and Zenit tomorrow
     
  21. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    I have it up to the end of the Lyon game in the top post and have the results to the key matches displayed.
     
  22. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    So looking at some of the results from this week and the remaining schedule the magic number is 27. Currently that is the point where you can not be caught. The other side of that is currently 23 would be the lowest possible total to make promotion. My guess would be 3rd ends up with 25 points +/- 1 point. I think the 24-26 point range will give you a good shot. Although 26 does not lock you into promotion like 27 points does.
     
  23. Dylema

    Dylema Walk On

    Joined:
    Jan 27, 2011
    Messages:
    880
    It's simple from here on out. Sevilla need 6 points or 5 + a GD of +10 in their last 3 games to overtake Zenit. With Bayern, Liverpool, and Villareal left 6 is possible but not a given so this could still get interesting.
     
  24. hedache

    hedache Walk On

    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2010
    Messages:
    4,001
    So it seems like Sevilla is the closest to promotion. Can he blow such an advantage? We'll see. Bayern can still decide their own faith with 3 wins in their last games but no offense, I don't see that happening.
     
  25. Timpegoose

    Timpegoose Walk On

    Joined:
    Jul 17, 2010
    Messages:
    7,157
    Don't jinx me!
     
Thread Status:
Not open for further replies.

Share This Page