Looking at the stats, unbalanced offenses are heavily favored. (Long)

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by ociu, Mar 25, 2010.

  1. ociu

    ociu Hoosier for Life.

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    Looking at the stats, unbalanced offenses are heavily favored. (Long)

    Looking at the stats, it's pretty obvious that with the way we have our sliders set up, guys who pass the ball constantly have a very clear advantage.


    Here's a look at the stats.


    As a league, we average two times as many passing yards as we do rushing yards per game (261 PYPG to 115 YPG). This mean value takes into account some pretty serious outliers in UCLA and Virginia. UCLA passes for 430 YPG and runs for 62 ypg, while Virginia rushes for 154 and passes for 142. While one may look at the values and see that Virginia is actually outrushing their passing game, they've literally had to abandon their passing game, leading to an average of 200 ypg less than UCLA's offense. As one could guess, this shows that the current setup of the league heavily favors unbalanced offenses, and as such, isn't as sim as it really should be.

    Looking at the medians, which, considering the outliers, might be a bit more accurate, the average team in our league passes for roughly 250 yards and rushes for 110 yards. Again, you're seeing that the yards per game total is pretty darn low because with the low YPC average that the league sees (other than UVA, and I don't know HOW he pulls that off), the teams are having to give up valuable passing downs in exchange for 2-3 rushing yards per carry.


    The same pattern shows up for defense. On average (mean), Opponents PYPG is 247 and RYPG is 91. This is again taking into account a couple outliers. No team in the league gives up more than 120 rushing yards per game, yet three teams give up less than 75 yards per game, which is an obscenely low total.

    Again, we've got to look at the median because of the outliers, and according to the median, the average team in our league gives up 110 rushing yards per game, which is a bit more respectable than the median value, but still is tremendously low.

    If anyone else is trying to find faults with my stats, I'll go into a bit of detail about the methods. I took into account games played for each player, and with my total (since I came into this year midseason), I only used the values for the games I played in, thus taking out anything the computer did before I got into the season.


    So, to sum it up, a team trying to run an offense with any semblance of balance is going to have a ton of trouble. In my opinion, looking at the sliders, part of the issue is that WR catching (on both User and Computer) and Interceptions are so far out of sync that it gives the offense a huge advantage. The WR Catching and Interceptions don't just determine whether or not the offensive or defensive player catches the ball. It also affects whether or not a player gets a good jump on the ball, meaning that the WR is far more likely to get to the pass than the CB. By pushing WR Catching down a bit more, we're likely to see more balanced statistics. Also, we should probably look into changing up the tackling slider (particularly for the defense), as well as the Rush D slider.

    I propose that we take a look at these in the offseason. I know that I probably just wasted half an hour of my life looking all of those stats up and typing up this summary, but I really do want to see this league succeed, and I think that with a little tweaking, we can make these results considerably more sim-like.
     
  2. Beazus Christ

    Beazus Christ Resident Smut Peddler

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    Damn, my man got all nerdy with it and shit!
    JK - good analysis.
     
  3. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    I run a spread offense, pass heavy. Only run at the end of the game
     
  4. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    I may make it harder to pass, but I will not make it easier to run.

    This has never been major a problem before.

    And I keep the interceptions so low because we play on Heisman and if I kept those up above 20 you would get picked off all day long and users would too easily get picks all day as well. When it comes to my team I see quite a bit of drops. As for UCLA, he has an excellent QB and core of receivers, probably the reason he has won two national titles.

    We also don't have the best teams out there, so we take what we can get. If our passing game is better than our run game, then take advantage of that, yes I'd like to see rushing stats. If you are getting like 25 rushes a game but only 65 yards it shows you are trying. But if i see like 50 pass attempts and 6 rushes, then we have a problem. I have considered dropping the team restriction and letting people switch to whatever team they want this upcoming offseason (just as long as we keep it to 2 or 3 per conference). I know some aren't getting hardly any recruits and I know that makes it hard to balance out an offense.

    I can't force anyone to change their offensive scheme (unless they get cheesy). I believe everyone has done a good job with keeping their stats realistic.
     
  5. ociu

    ociu Hoosier for Life.

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    Ok. I'm just not sure why making the run game a bit more accessible wouldn't be a good idea. As I think I've shown here, the stats aren't all that realistic. I'm not trying to pick on UCLA, because I think we all know that he has a heck of a team, but I don't think that we need to make it any easier for him as he's already throwing for almost five hundred yards a game. That's not accurate at all.

    The point I'm trying to make is that it's impossible to have an offense with any semblance of balance with the current league setup we've got now. I just think that opening up the run game a bit would lead to a league that's more open to diverse sim styles of offense.
     
  6. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    I dont have 6 rushing attempts because I cannot run the ball, I do not rush because I choose not too. I finally have the core of WRs I have been building on in 3 years of recruiting. I was averaging over 100 yards a game rushing my first season, check out my old season threads. My plan at UCLA was to shift to a wide out spread passing attack. I am sure if I wanted to I could revert to the running game and have success but that is not how I build my offense, I come out firing on all cylinders till the game is won then run it out.

    For the others I can not vouch, they may be struggling in the run game, but for me that is not the reason why I am not running alot.
     
  7. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    Yea, I'm not sure if people choose to not run or if they just can't. Good point.
     
  8. ociu

    ociu Hoosier for Life.

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    This doesn't change my point though. They might choose not to run because it's too easy to throw, or they might choose not to run because it's too difficult to run.

    It's a balance issue, and it's why teams like UCLA are setup to succeed (credit to their coach) and why other teams simply aren't. It's also why every team goes into god mode at the end of a half or game when they go to four or five wide sets.
     
  9. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    I am for slider increase at every level. I just choose not to run, I can though. I have great backs
     
  10. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    Yes I would more than likely increase than decrease.
     
  11. billyd1esel

    billyd1esel Walk On

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    First off, the fact you took the time to do this, thanks a lot OCIU. Really shows you want to stick around and see this through. Glad to see someone post on the board lately, has been a graveyard lately.

    As far as the topic, I really feel I can bring something to the conversation. I run the ball around 90% of the time, and really have not had consistency. Surprisingly, I've won 2 bowl games, so there is a positive. I might be in the mix this year in the SEC, but not sure. I know IRL the few teams that run the option AVG anywhere from 250-300 rushing yards per game, where as I probably get around 120 or so. As I said in another post, the only time I really pull away from ranked teams is if I am to score on Defense somehow, or if I have a special teams TD.

    I also feel I have a solid group of DBs, but it does seem that sometimes I look silly in the Pass D department, but sometimes I fair well, so it kind of just depends.

    I unfortunately do not run the ball up the middle much at all. I would like to do so more, but it's just nearly impossible in the game. I do not think many sliders can fix that, it's just how the game is.
     
  12. Beazus Christ

    Beazus Christ Resident Smut Peddler

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    It is hard as hell to run up the middle for MN but I got crap Gs so that could be a major reason for my struggles. Agree with Diesel though, sometimes my secondary is retarded as hell so Ive started to switch when the ball is in the air to make a play - sometimes it works, sometimes I eff up.
     

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