LSU and the SEC Title Game

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by OsirisMonster, Sep 22, 2010.

  1. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    LSU and the SEC Title Game

    LSU situation - Week 7: Currently LSU sits unranked with a 2-2 conference record. Both losses were to SEC East teams (Tennessee and Vanderbilt.)

    SEC West situation - Week 7: Alabama (3-0), Auburn (3-0), and Ole Miss (2-0) sit on top of the conference. Arkansas (1-1) is also ahead of LSU.

    In order for LSU to win the SEC West a few things need to happen. LSU needs to win the rest of their conference games and they need help from Alabama, Auburn, and Ole Miss. I'll break down the SEC West games left below.

    Arkansas: Arkansas has a week 4 loss to Alabama and plays LSU in week 13. As long as LSU wins out, they will edge out Arkansas due to tie breakers. Arkansas still plays at Auburn (week 7) and Ole Miss (week 8).

    Ole Miss: Ole Miss currently has position over LSU. Even if LSU wins out Ole Miss could get the SEC West title with only 1 conference loss compared to LSU’s 2 losses. Still Ole Miss has all their tough SEC West games left to play. Ole Miss plays at Alabama (week 7), at Arkansas (week 8), Auburn (week 9), and Tennessee (week 11) before facing at LSU (week 12). Given the skill level of the Ole Miss team it would be a monumental undertaking for Ole Miss to win the SEC West.

    Auburn: Auburn currently has position over LSU. Even if LSU wins out Auburn could get the SEC West title with only 1 conference loss compared to LSU’s 2 losses. Auburn still has all their tough SEC West games left to play including Arkansas (week 7), at Ole Miss (week 9), Georgia (week 11), and at Alabama (week 13). Auburn and LSU play in week 8. There is a small chance Auburn could win all those games but with tough opponents in Arkansas, Georgia, and Alabama it is unlikely.

    Alabama: Alabama is the current favorite to win the SEC West. Even if LSU beats them when they play at LSU in week 10, Alabama is favored in the rest of their games and would need an additional loss to give LSU control. Alabama has the following games left: Ole Miss (week 7), at Tennessee (week 8), Auburn (week 13). There is also some hope that Miss State could shock the world and beat Alabama when they play week 11.

    Current Odds:
    65% - Alabama is the odds on favorite to win the SEC West and would need a loss to either Ole Miss, Tennessee, Miss State, or Auburn along with a LSU win to loose the SEC West.
    20% - LSU has a long shot chance to win the SEC West but those odds could drastically increase with an Alabama loss in weeks 7 or 8. Both Ole Miss and Auburn have tough SEC opponents left and a win out by LSU should propel them over both of those teams.
    10% - Auburn can win the SEC West even if they loose to LSU assuming they win their other SEC games. These include games against Arkansas, Ole Miss, Georgia, and Alabama.
    5% - Ole Miss has a slight chance to win the SEC West even with a loss to LSU. They would need to beat Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, and Tennessee
     
  2. Urine_Trouble_

    Urine_Trouble_ Walk On

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    Good luck with that... Next season and the rest of this season should be great. Not only our game but our recruiting wars... FSU too
     
  3. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Ideally Ole Miss will somehow beat Alabama this week and Arkansas will beat Auburn. The Arkansas win is much more likely to happen.
     
  4. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    The dream lives on. Can LSU start 1-4 and still win a SEC title? Only time will tell.

    In Week 7 both Ole Miss and Auburn lost control of their SEC destiny. Ole Miss fell to Alabama on the road 33-13 while Auburn lost at home to Arkansas 43-13. These loses are huge and turn the SEC West from a four team race into a two team race.

    Still, the road to a title game berth is out of LSU's hands. Alabama needs to loose an SEC West game and the list of teams they face is shrinking.

    Week 8 sees Alabama travel to Tennessee to face the SEC East leading Vols in a huge rivalry game. Tennessee is coming off a big win against Georgia and already has wins against Florida and LSU in conference play. Can they pull another upset and beat Alabama?

    In Week 11 Miss State travels to Alabama to play the Tide. Previously thought to be a Bama cake walk, the recent upset over Florida shows the Bulldogs shouldn't be underestimated.

    Finally in Week 13 Auburn makes the trek to Alabama. The SEC West could be decided by the outcome of this very game.

    All this still rests on LSU finishing off their SEC schedule unbeaten and that is no easy task. This week LSU makes the hike to #22 Auburn for a rivalry matchup then in Week 10 they host #2 Alabama followed by a Week 12 visit from #21 Ole Miss and a Week 13 visit to #17 Arkansas.

    After Week 7 the SEC West odds look like this:
    Alabama 70%
    LSU 30%
     
  5. mmullen8

    mmullen8 Walk On

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    good idea, i like this
     
  6. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Looked over the Auburn team and I like my chances against them. They have a mobile QB but I think I can shut him down. Overall I should be able to control the tempo of the game and shut down the Auburn offense. The Auburn team is solid all around without any glaring weakness though and it is a road game but I have good confidence after beating Florida in the Swamp.
     
  7. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Auburn goes down as LSU wins it second consecutive conference road game against a ranked opponent knocking Auburn out of the top 25 poll (just like they did Florida only two back) by a score of 44 to 6.

    The name of the game is defense and LSU brought defense in spades. Coach Osiris tried out a few new looks and confused the Auburn offense forcing 4 turnovers including 2 fumbles and 2 interceptions. How did LSU fare in the turnover game? Not a single one! The +4 differential became too much for Auburn to handle and they started playing reckless and gave up two huge pass plays, one that went 62 yards to Shepard (see the video of this one) and one that went 67 yards to Randle off a blown Auburn tackle. The running game performed adequetely as all three LSU backs got involved in a 121 yard ground day.

    Next up for LSU? A bye week as the Tigers prepare to host #2 Alabama at home.

    Yes folks. The dream lives on in Baton Rouge.
     
  8. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    LSU hopes for a SEC championship berth took a big hit this week when Alabama crushed rival Tennessee at Neyland stadium. With two conference games left (home games week 11 and 13 against Miss State and Auburn), LSU is praying for Alabama to drop just one of them.
     
  9. Urine_Trouble_

    Urine_Trouble_ Walk On

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    who they have left on the schedule?
     
  10. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    at LSU (need to win this one and have them loose one more conference game)

    home against Miss State and Auburn

    home against a Sun Belt team

    My hope lies with Miss State or Auburn pulling an upset (assuming I win the big game next week)
     
  11. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Bye week this week. Going to be a boring wait until I get to play Bama.....
     
  12. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Big week 10 game to play tonight. #2 Bama comes into Death Valley for a taste of the LSU Tigers. Already LSU has beaten two ranked SEC opponents, will Bama be the third?
     
  13. Urine_Trouble_

    Urine_Trouble_ Walk On

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    Good luck bro... I'd rather see a user rep SEC than the cpu
     
  14. carolinaeasy

    carolinaeasy Walk On

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    BEAT THEM!
     
  15. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Game is definately winable, as it will be in real life. LSU squad is pretty good. They are not Bama calibur but they are good enough that they can pull the upset. Playing at home helps too.
     
  16. carolinaeasy

    carolinaeasy Walk On

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    When I played them in the first installment of the Dad Life (i know the super sim jokes are coming), I loaded up the box and forced them to pass. If you can stop the run game they are VERY beatable. Just don't turn the ball over.
     
  17. bdub

    bdub Walk On

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    You stop the run you can beat them. Its how Florida and Utah beat them and Arkansas just about beat them with the same plan.
     
  18. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    I heard Florida was going to use 3 DTs in their game tomorrow to stop the run.
     
  19. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    LSU comes up big at home against #2 Alabama winning 34 to 13. Alabama started off with the ball and drove unhindered down the field seemingly unstoppable. All that changed when they entered the red zone and threw a pick to big defensive end Kendrick Adams. Unfortunately the Tigers would fail to convert a 4th and 1 on the Bama 39 yard line. This time nothing stopped the Tide from scoring with ease on a 12 yard Mark Ingram run.
    Here is what Coach Osiris had to say about the first quarter “It looked like things were going our way after we intercepted McElroy in the red zone. It was a second down around their 15 and I felt they might try to slip a screen pass to exploit our zone defense. I audibled Adams into the flats to defend the screen and sure enough the screen pass came. We had the right guy in the right place on the field and made the Tide pay. Unfortunately we failed to convert points and gave Bama back the ball. The call to go for it on 4th was an easy one. We were just outside of FG range and with just under a yard to go I thought we could make it. Our offensive line just got blown up and Murphy didn’t have a chance. That’s when I started to worry. If we couldn’t score points we wouldn’t win this game. Our defense just wasn’t playing well and you can’t make a living off red zone turnovers. Eventually you’ll get scorched.”
    Fortunately the Tigers answered and drove the ensuing kick off down the field scoring on the first play of the 2nd quarter on a 1 yard Stevan Ridley run. During the 2nd quarter LSU stole momentum stopping Bama on a 4th and 3 then driving down the field for a FG to put LSU up 10-7. After that failed 4th down conversion (second video posted) the Tide lost offensive momentum and the Tigers got the ball back with just under two minutes left. That proved all they needed and Randle scored on an 8 yard pass at the end of the half to put the Tigers up 17-7.
    In the 3rd quarter both teams settled down until LSU broke it open on a 63 yard pass to Randle on a blown Tide coverage assignment. LSU would score again in the 4th quarter on a Ford 3 yard run to seal the game.
    Even with this win, LSU is still beholden to the Tide. LSU needs Alabama to lose one more conference game to overtake them in the SEC West and earn a berth in the SEC title game. With games against Miss State and Auburn left, the chances of an Alabama loss look unlikely. Still, coach Osiris maintains hope that Bama will lose again. “We proved to the nation that the Bama juggernaut is fallible. If we can beat them Miss State or Auburn can beat them. Now starts the waiting game.” For LSU though, coach Osiris better do more than wait as the Tiger still travel to Ole Miss and host Arkansas in a tough remaining SEC schedule.
     
  20. egofailure

    egofailure Sim habits die hard!

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    Awesome win, videos, and write-up. Congrats.

    That being said, those coverage sacks were ridiculous. If you give the (real) Tigers that much time to throw, we'll eat you up! ;)

    Haha, I look forward to seeing how the remainder of your season pans out.
     
  21. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    LSU returns to the polls as the #20 team in the nation following a huge win against Bama in Death Valley. After beating their 3rd ranked SEC opponent (including knocking both Florida and Auburn out of the polls) LSU recieves their due, a #20 ranking in all three major polls. With a 5-4 record, LSU becomes the only team with more then 2 losses in the polls and with a tough schedule ahead including games against Ole Miss and Arkansas left, LSU could rise higher in the coming weeks. Up next for the Tigers, a vacation game against a fearsome UL Monroe team.
     
  22. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Lsu won a nothing game against ULM 48 to 3. Recap to come soon. Easy win though with 300+ yards rushing.
     
  23. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    And a 'Bama loss is big news as well. You just might get your shot. Good luck.
     
  24. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Wow. Huge fourth quarter comeback for miss state. Just got to beat ole miss and Arkansas now. Arkansas will be a tough game.
     
  25. OsirisMonster

    OsirisMonster Walk On

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    Sad times. The miss state win over bama was thrown out and bama won the game in a blow out. Auburn is my last hope. Oh well chances of a title game now at about 20%.
     

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