M13 Draft Analysis (Part 1)

Discussion in 'Madden NFL Football' started by I Peench, May 19, 2013.

  1. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    Draft Analysis - Part 1

    [​IMG]

    A huge pet peeve of mine this cycle has been how the drafts aren’t top heavy enough; meaning, there isn’t enough top talent in the first round relative to the rest of the draft. In the NFL, hundreds of paid scouts and analysts come to a consensus as to where these players should be valued/drafted. While there are certainly players that surprise us in the NFL draft by going higher than expected (Bruce Irvin, Travis Frederick), for the most part there is a solid consensus on where these guys go (usually when a player drops it is due to an injury or character issue). Scouts are able to objectively see what kind of skills a player has, and draft them hoping they translate. Sometimes they do, sometimes they don't - but it often comes down to a combination of health, scheme, coaching, and work ethic and not ability at the present moment.

    [​IMG]

    So what does this all mean in regards to Madden? Simple – the drafts should be more top heavy with overalls, while “gems” should be more a product of being in the right situation (coaches, scheme) and developing quickly. Busts, however, shouldn’t necessarily start off with a lower overall; rather, regress or stall due to character issues or being in the wrong situation.

    Here we go:

    Question: How realistically weighted are the Madden drafts?

    Hypothesis: The Madden 13 drafts aren’t top heavy enough; there is too much immediate talent outside of the 1st round.

    Method: I will be using a NY Times article constructed by Mike Bostock, Shan Carter, Kevin Quealy and Joel Ward and cross-referencing it with the detailed information of three random Madden 13 CCM classes. I’ll be looking at how accurate Madden represents the “weight” of their draft classes compared to those findings in the NY Times article – which breaks down the top-performing players in real NFL drafts, and which round they were drafted in.
    The metric used to determine a “good” player in real life is based off pro bowls, career starts, and other factors. Determining the success of a Madden draftee has to be a bit more straight-forward, and I’ll be doing so by marking every player over a 78 “good”.

    To Note:
    -I will be basing the Madden drafts on projected value, and excluding FBs, Ks, and Ps.
    -I will be calculating each overall in every scheme, and posting the highest overall in all schemes

    NFL Findings

    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]

    Findings:
    As calculated by Bostock, Carter, Quealy and Ward, 62% of “good” players are drafted in the 1st round. This seems about right to me, as 1st round picks always seem slightly better than a 50% shot. Again, the term “good” is calculated through a number of factors, including career starts and pro bowls.

    Madden Class 1
    1st Round
    1 (1) QB 83
    1 (2) DT 89
    1 (3) OLB 88
    1 (4) LT 83
    1 (5) MLB 84
    1 (6) DT 81
    1 (7) HB 84
    1 (8) WR 84
    1 (9) TE 79
    1 (10) CB 79
    1 (11) TE 76
    1 (12) WR 73
    1 (13) CB 74
    1 (14) FS 76
    1 (15) LT 74
    1 (16) QB 75
    1 (17) RT 75
    1 (18) CB 73
    1 (19) DE 90
    1 (20) DE 88
    1 (21) SS 83
    1 (22) CB 83
    1 (23) LT 81
    1 (24) CB 75
    1 (25) DE 85
    1 (26) CB 77
    1 (27) QB 80
    1 (28) DE 84
    1 (29) C 76
    1 (30) DT 65
    1 (31) WR 76
    1 (32) HB 81

    Total "good" players found in the 1st round: 19 (43%)

    Outside of 1st Round
    QB 79 (3rd)
    HB 81 (4th)
    HB 80 (2nd)
    WR 80 (2nd)
    WR 79 (6th)
    WR 79 (3rd)
    TE 81 (2nd)
    TE 80 (2nd)
    LT 84 (2nd)
    C 84 (6th)
    RG 87 (2nd)
    RG 82 (4th)
    RG 78 (2nd)
    RT 81 (2nd)
    RT 85 (2nd)
    LE 78 (3rd)
    LE 81 (3rd)
    RE 83 (3rd)
    RE 84 (6th)
    RE 86 (2nd)
    MLB 80 (6th)
    OLB 83 (4th)
    OLB 79 (3rd)
    FS 78 (7th)
    SS 78 (4th)

    Total "good" players found outside the 1st round: 25 (57%)

    Madden Class 2
    1st Round
    1 (1) DE 85
    1 (2) DT 91
    1 (3) HB 88
    1 (4) QB 78
    1 (5) LT 79
    1 (6) WR 83
    1 (7) LT 83
    1 (8) OLB 80
    1 (9) RG 78
    1 (10) DE 84
    1 (11) QB 78
    1 (12) CB 73
    1 (13) TE 78
    1 (14) WR 86
    1 (15) HB 80
    1 (16) DT 79
    1 (17) WR 76
    1 (18) DT 78
    1 (19) WR 74
    1 (20) CB 83
    1 (21) DE 80
    1 (22) TE 86
    1 (23) TE 74
    1 (24) OLB 75
    1 (25) SS 86
    1 (26) MLB 75
    1 (27) HB 82
    1 (28) C 75
    1 (29) RT 74
    1 (30) C 69
    1 (31) CB 71
    1 (32) FS 77

    Total “good” players in 1st: 21 (42%)

    Out of 1st Round
    QB 79 (2nd)
    HB 82 (2nd)
    FB 79 (7th)
    WR 81 (3rd)
    WR 80 (7th)
    WR 79 (2nd)
    WR 80 (3rd)
    WR 79 (3rd)
    LT 79 (5th)
    LT 83 (2nd)
    LT 78 (3rd)
    LG 81 (3rd)
    RG 84 (2nd)
    LE 82 (4th)
    LE 81 (2nd)
    RE 83 (2nd)
    RE 80 (2nd)
    RE 81 (3rd)
    RE 78 (3rd)
    DT 80 (4th)
    DT 78 (5th)
    MLB 81 (2nd)
    MLB 80 (6th)
    OLB 80 (6th)
    CB 81 (3rd)
    CB 79 (4th)
    CB 82 (2nd)
    CB 79 (3rd)
    FS 78 (3rd)

    Total "good" players found outside the 1st round: 29 (58%)

    Madden Class 3
    1st Round
    1 (1) QB 84
    1 (2) DT 86
    1 (3) LT 80
    1 (4) DT 87
    1 (5) CB 83
    1 (6) DE 83
    1 (7) CB 72
    1 (8) QB 79
    1 (9) HB 85
    1 (10) QB 78
    1 (11) MLB 85
    1 (12) CB 78
    1 (13) HB 90
    1 (14) CB 71
    1 (15) DT 82
    1 (16) DE 83
    1 (17) DT 70
    1 (18) HB 84
    1 (19) RT 81
    1 (20) OLB 86
    1 (21) RT 81
    1 (22) CB 77
    1 (23) LT 72
    1 (24) LE 79
    1 (25) TE 70
    1 (26) WR 86
    1 (27) OLB 78
    1 (28) CB 74
    1 (29) WR 85
    1 (30) RG 85
    1 (31) CB 76
    1 (32) FS 82

    Total “good” players found in the 1st: 24 (45%)

    Outside the 1st Round:
    QB 81 (2nd)
    QB 79 (2nd)
    HB 80 (7th)
    WR 81 (3rd)
    WR 80 (2nd)
    WR 78 (3rd)
    TE 85 (2nd)
    LG 81 (4th)
    LG 80 (5th)
    C 85 (5th)
    C 80 (2nd)
    RG 83 (2nd)
    RT 79 (3rd)
    DE 88 (2nd)
    DE 86 (2nd)
    DE 83 (3rd)
    DE 81 (3rd)
    DE 80 (3rd)
    DE 79 (5th)
    DE 79 (5th)
    DT 82 (4th)
    DT 79 (3rd)
    OLB 80 (6th)
    MLB 80 (4th)
    CB 84 (3rd)
    CB 81 (2nd)
    CB 80 (6th)
    CB 79 (5th)
    FS 80 (2nd)
    SS 78 (3rd)

    Total “good” players found outside the 1st: 30 (55%)



    Conclusion

    The findings: As expected, the weight of the talent in an NFL draft is not accurately represented in Madden 13. In the three random Madden drafts, there was an average of 43% of the “good” players that were projected in the 1st round – a far cry from the 62% calculated in real life. While I think Madden accurately depicts the talent at the very top (top 5) of the draft, beyond that it needs some real work.

    Suggestion: While I love the idea of “gems,” they need to be accurately represented. They are diamonds in the rough for a reason, they are few and far between. As it stands now, these players are obvious to a trained eye and hugely over-drafted. It makes for a much less realistic experience.

    References:

    New York Times "N.F.L. Draft: How Good Are Teams at Picking the Best?" Bostock, Carter, Quealy and Ward.


     
    Last edited: May 19, 2013
    • Like Like x 17
  2. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    Discuss
     
  3. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    8,935
    Good analysis, I'd tend to agree.
     
  4. bawvu97

    bawvu97 Let's Goooooo Mountaineers

    Joined:
    Jul 26, 2010
    Messages:
    4,999
    Featured Threads:
    1
    [​IMG]


    well done steve-o
     
    • Like Like x 3
  5. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,852
    Very well done, hopefully EA can polish up this area in 25 to get a more accurate spread. I'd like to see them drop individual stat scouting and see more of a combine style ratings. With college stats, and senior bowl results for kids coming from smaller programs. And incorporate coach scheme, player performance for how well they progress etc. Great write up!
     
  6. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    I wish I had a bigger sample size, but collecting the data for 3 took long enough haha.
     
  7. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

    Joined:
    Sep 23, 2009
    Messages:
    12,443
    Nice job Peench. My question...are the default projections akin to McShay or Kiper and the real evaluation of the talent distribution would be better done on a draft where 32 human coaches have scouted and drafted? (Tmfl possibly) I think the projections are just the games way of rewarding good scouting, right? The actual NFL teams don't rely on Kiper's evaluations, they use their own analysis and make infomed choices. Isn't that what the games doing too? Asking the individual owner to make his own evaluations? I mean, Ted Thompson or John Schneider don't give a rat's ass what Todd McShay thinks.
     
  8. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    The projections of all the football gurus are really, really underrated. For the most part, everyone has an idea of market value and risers/fallers. The mock drafts are horrendous, but the projections of mcshay/kiper/scouts/mayock are much better than people think. I went back at the last draft and looked - I was surprised.
     
  9. TryHardNation

    TryHardNation Texas Gang or Die

    Joined:
    May 14, 2012
    Messages:
    364
    How did you account for scheme affecting overall when doing the Madden classes? Good work.
     
  10. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    I just kept switching schemes and going back to evaluate players. I do believe the overall you scout is automatically the highest a player can be, however. I figured that out pretty quickly.
     
  11. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

    Joined:
    Apr 14, 2010
    Messages:
    13,939
    One thing: How do you determine good? That could just have easily been a 75 or 80.

    Did you consider what previous iterations of Madden rate its actual rookies in the first roster of the game? Guys like Luck and RG3 push 80 but those guys are the very best obviously. There aren't a ton of rookies that are rated 78 or above on the stock roster that releases with the game.
     
  12. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    Which is why I settled on 78. Generally, if you draft a guy that's a 78 overall, you're likely to give him some serious playing time early irrespective of depth at that particular position. There was no clear-cut way to do this, but I thought that cut-off was a realistic one. That's certainly a criticism I knew I'd face.

    Agreed - I think these need work, which is partly why I chose this topic. I'll be putting out some more analysis on the draft, but wanted to narrow my focus on this one. I certainly don't think there should be rookies coming in at 87+, at least with the frequency they do now.
     
  13. IrishBearcat

    IrishBearcat tFC OD Commissioner

    Joined:
    Jan 29, 2011
    Messages:
    6,353
    Professor Bearcat scores this as an "A" paper.

    Well done.
     
  14. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    Really hope to see more top-heavy drafts in M25. It'll be one of the first things I test.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  15. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,852
    I'll be looking at Draft Classes first.
     
  16. CWT 3000

    CWT 3000 Walk On

    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2010
    Messages:
    1,986
    Can you import NCAA 14 draft classes this year? If so, that might be an interesting angle as well.
     
  17. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2010
    Messages:
    8,298
    Yes

    Will you be on Friday? Trying to get my review out asap, so if you have any interesting findings, please let mek now.
     
  18. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

    Joined:
    Sep 3, 2012
    Messages:
    3,852
    Yea, I'll PM what I see, and sim through a few seasons to see how progression goes.
     
    • Like Like x 1
  19. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

    Joined:
    Mar 17, 2011
    Messages:
    8,531

    If you want I might be able to assist win the same, I still have NCAA (makes a nice coaster)
     
  20. LeGeNd RiPs

    LeGeNd RiPs Is it football season yet?

    Joined:
    Nov 21, 2009
    Messages:
    1,871
    Good shit buddy.
     
  21. MartyWebb

    MartyWebb C.R.E.A.M.

    Joined:
    Jul 25, 2010
    Messages:
    2,320
    Especially with the NCAA non-declare 'glitch.' So multiple 99 overall guys declaring for the same draft could add to some depth in Madden drafts.
     

Share This Page