Mel Kiper's Draft Board / Projections

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by Black Republican, Oct 12, 2012.

  1. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    TEAM / NEEDS / FIT

    1. Cleveland Browns - QB, WR, Pass Rusher - The Browns could go QB with Ken Marshall, but the Browns spent a first round pick last year on Brandon Weeden. Weeden has showed flashes but is playing very mediocre. I see them sticking with Weeden, and taking the WR out of FAU CLIFTON FAULK. Faulk would add instant production to a lack luster receiving corps. Greg Little clearly isn't cut out to be WR#1.
    PDP - 2. Clifton Faulk WR FAU
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    2. New Orleans Saints - LOLB, CB, Pass Rusher - The Saints struggles are directly linked to poor play by Drew Brees. The Saints haven't been able to pass well even with the weapons already in NO. While the Saints are getting a little long in the tooth at receiver, they need to address the holes on D. The Saints currently rank dead last in total D. Adding CB Josiah Smith out of Iowa State will help sure up the back end on this Saints D. Jabari Greer can move to the slot and allow the fast young guys to keep up with the Steve Smith's, Julio Jones and Vincent Jackons's in this tough division.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 8. Josiah Smith CB Iowa State


    3. Chicago Bears - LT, LB - The Bears have a hard time keeping Jay Cutler on his feet and throwing down field. Cutler being rushed has thrown over 29 INTs a career high, and Matt Forte has only found the endzone ONCE this year with a 3.7 avg. The Bears need to address the lack luster performance by the big hogs up front. Adding LT, P.L. Webb from the Univ of Texas would add to an already young line, but would allow movement from some players playing out of position and protecting Cutlers' blindside.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 18. P.L. Webb LT Texas


    4. Arizona Cardinals - QB, RB, RT - The Cards could go in many directions with this pick, but the clear option is Ken Marshall QB Wake Forest. This kid is 6'5 big arm, highly productive kid. It's clear its time for a true franchise QB in Arizona. Kolb & Skelton are not the answers to this franchise.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 1. Ken Marshall QB Wake Forest


    5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - RT, FS - While protecting the QB has been an issue in Tampa, this line is pretty solid, just need some more continuity and they should pull together quite nicely. The D Line is solid with some other first and second rounders there putting in work. Rookie LB Lavonte David has excedded all expectations as is 2nd year LB Mason Foster. The Bucs have problems stopping the pass, and Ronde Barber is OLD. Mark Barron is a monster and having a ball hawk FS like Fernando Johns out of Penn State would bolster this secondary instantly!
    [​IMG]
    PDP. 12. Fernando Johns FS Penn State


    6. New England Patriots - WR, RT - Welker is 31 and having contract issues, and has health concerns, Lloyd is 31, Branch 33, Gaffney 31. This is by the the' oldest receiving group in the NFL. Brady hasn't had an issue getting utility out of these old guys, but its time to turn the page, and add a new fold. Ty Jennings is big, 6'3 physical and fast, is said to be better than Alshon Jeffery his teammate last year currently on the Bears.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 4. Ty Jennings WR South Carolina


    7. Houston Texans - QB, WR, RT - This Houston team is good, dumping Matt Schaub due to contract issues linked with poor performance the Texans have found some success with practice squad QBs. Robb Bell now enters the conversation. Currently ranked as the #2 passer coming out this year, Robb has taken the UAB Blazers to a bowl game each of his 3 years. His 6'5 frame and big arm will play in nicely with Andre Johnson!
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 7. Robb Bell QB UAB


    8. Cincinanti Bengals (Jaguars) - C, DE, DB - Trading MJD couldn't have worked out any better for the Jags. They dumped a huge salary and found a new back in Bernard Pierce and can address a team need with a top 10 pick from the Bengals. If the Jags ran a 3-4 D the clear choice here would be RE McClain out of OSU, but they don't! This moves the attention to the secondary as the value isn't there this early to reach on a pass rushing DE which they need. SS Jordan Sherrod should get picked here. Current SS Dawan Landry will be 30 years old and is slow, with very average attributes this will be an immediately felt impact to this Jags D. Landry has 11 tackles and ZERO interceptions on the year.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 10. Jordan Sherrod SS Washington


    9. Tennesse Titans - C, DT, LB - The Titans are have Jake Locker & Chris Johnson, great start, add Jared Cook and this young fast receivers the Titans will heat up on O. Drafting at the 9 spot the Titans could sure up the interior D Line with two studs slipping down the draft board. BUT I see the Titans going LB here. The current LB's on the roster are old and their production is starting to slip. At least on the D Line they have young talent to develop. MLB Patrick Connor out of UT would provide a middle presence that the Titans have lacked for a long time, and is ranked #1 at MLB.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 16. Connor Patrick MLB Tennessee


    10. Dallas Cowboys - DL, SS - Sitting pretty back at #10 the Dallas Cowboys have it good. They aren't seeking any sort of impact player that is needed. With that said the RE mentioned earlier Alvaro McClain out of the' Ohio State university would be a nice fit to this Cowboys's D. He's a big, aggressive guy that can play the 3 technique or nose. Very versatile, and would probably bump vetern Coleman & Spears, adding them to a deep rotation.
    [​IMG]
    PDP - 5. Alvaro McClain RE Ohio State



    Madden Projected Draft Pick - Mel's Big Board
    1. Ken Marshall QB Wake Forest
    2. Clifton Faulk WR FAU
    3. Charlie Hunt DT Utah
    4. Ty Jennings WR South Carolina
    5. Alvaro McClain RE Ohio State
    6. Gussie Jones DT Penn State
    7. Robb Bell QB UAB
    8. Josiah Smith CB Iowa State
    9. Wisler Travis LE Staford
    10. Jordan Sherrod SS Washington
    11. Dezrick Shaw CB California
    12. Fernando Johns FS Penn State
    13. B.J. Graves HB UCLA
    14. Marlon Oduh LE Texas A&M
    15. Mark Mallett QB Oregon State
    16. Connor Patrick MLB Tennessee
    17. Cedric Robins LOLB Oklahoma
    18. P.L. Webb LT Texas
    19. Ricky Colbert DT Rutgers
    20. Jason Shields LE Kentucky
     
    Last edited: Oct 12, 2012
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  2. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    Wow, excellent work. Very interesting to see how this plays out...
     
  3. MS8403

    MS8403 Walk On

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    Very cool write up.
     
  4. DirtSouthDan

    DirtSouthDan Walk On

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    Wow, former owner gave up his first pick for MJD? I see why his quit. lol
     
  5. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    Bengals gave up 2012 1st and 2nd and 2013 3rd and 4th. for MJD.
     
  6. mmorgan184

    mmorgan184 Walk On

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    Wow. That's a bad deal for the Bengals. Great deal for the Jags.
     
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  7. DirtSouthDan

    DirtSouthDan Walk On

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    Your pulling my leg right? What the hell? Would have been nice to see that on his transaction list before I decided to take this team. Especially since the Saints were still available. Damn.
     
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  8. MS8403

    MS8403 Walk On

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    The Patriots are leaning defense. Offense is playing just fine, but we can't stop anyone.
     
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  9. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    The saints weren't available. Mmorgan took them
     
  10. DirtSouthDan

    DirtSouthDan Walk On

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    Nice work on the draft projections! Should be a great draft.
     
  11. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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  12. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    Are you supposed to add those when trading? For example...the 1st overall pick (3000) would be traded for the 6th (1600) and 8th (1400). Is that right?
     
  13. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    I dont think there is any mandate on using this... i just thought I would post so people could make some informed decisions when trading picks with the offseason coming up. This is the chart that NFL teams use.
     
  14. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    I was just curious. Its a good reference.
     
  15. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    It is a good guide, sim
     
  16. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    I think the difficulty is putting a value on current players... What is a 29 year old RB worth? A 25 year old DE? Thats all subjective.
     
  17. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    The pick chart is a good "rule of thumb" for draft pick trades only. But with supply & demand ultimately drive up or down the value of a player.

    Patriots trade Bengals 27th pick and 3rd RD pick for the Bengals 21st pick: According to the chart that works out to be 816/800 difference of 16 (late 6th - 7th rd pick according to chart)

    Then they traded with the Broncos, sending Pats 31st pick and 4th rd pick 125 for Broncos first round 25 pick. 647/720 difference of 73 (4th rd pick according to chart)

    Cowboys trade with Rams they get 6th overall 1600 for picks 14 & 45 1100+450... Difference of 50. (late 5th value)

    Adding players to the mix and figuring their values like you said is totally subjective, with so many variables like age, contract, durability, scheme, attitude etc...

    Not even NFL billionaire owners and GMs have been able to figure this out haha.

    Was Ricky Williams worth 4 picks including a first? Ehhh no....

    Philip Buchanon was traded for rds 2 & 4, then cut the following year by the Texans.

    Dolphins traded a 2nd rounder for Donte Culpepper.

    Dallas traded a 1st, 3rd and 6th for Roy Williams.

    The Cards traded a starting CB and a 2nd for Kevin Kolb lol

    Asante Samuel only worth a 7th rd draft pick??

    ... All subjective at the time. You just hope you can mold that person into the star you have envisioned him as.
     
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  18. Snozberriez8198

    Snozberriez8198 10 Star Recruit

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    anyone know the official draft order?
     
  19. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    No I dont know for sure yet...
     
  20. DirtSouthDan

    DirtSouthDan Walk On

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    You can look at who has which pick by checking the trade menu. It will allow you to see the pick order.
     
  21. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    Top 10 anyway...

    1. Browns
    2. Vikings
    3. Bucs
    4. Saints
    5. Cards
    6. Pats
    7. Bears
    8. Rams
    9. Texans
    10. Titans
     
  22. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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  23. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    I got most of it done, I'll post it up in a bit
     
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  24. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    DRAFT DAY DRAFT ORDER 2013

    1. Clevland Browns
    2. Minnsota Vikings
    3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
    4. New Orleans Saints
    5. Arizona Cardinals
    6. New Engalnd Patriots
    7. Chicago Bears
    8. St Louis Rams
    9. Houston Texans
    10. Tennesse Titans
    11. Dallas Cowboys
    12. San Deigo Chargers
    13. Jacksonville Jaguars
    14. St Louis Rams
    15. Miami Dolphins
    16. New York Jets
    17. New York Giants
    18. Seattle Seahawks
    19. Jacksonville Jaguars
    20. Kansas City Chiefs
    21. Philidelphia Eagles
    22. Buffalo Bills
    23. San Francisco 49ers
    24. Indinapolis Colts
    25. Denver Broncos
    26. Detriot Lions
    27. Pittsburgh Steelers
    28. Greenbay Packers
    29. Atlanta Falcons
    30. Oakland Raiders
    31. Carolina Panthers
    32. Baltimore Ravens
     
  25. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    Still working on that mock? Would love to read it
     

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