Real Life: 17 Michigan St @ 18 Michigan

Discussion in 'The Experience' started by JCspartan2, Oct 5, 2010.

  1. JCspartan2

    JCspartan2 Sparty Party

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    Real Life: 17 Michigan St @ 18 Michigan

    Any predictions on this huge game this weekend from the peanut gallery?


    I am obviously biased, but if I were to give the most objective prediction I could I still see MSU winning this one, and I don't really think the final will be all that close.

    U of M has the nations worst pass defense (ranked 120) and they haven't even played a great offensive team yet. To date, their best defensive performance was against Bowling Green (holding them to 274 yards). However, Buffalo just held Bowling Green to 176 yards of total offense, so even that number by UofM isn't all that great. U of M is ranked 102 overall nationally in team defense. One thing that no one talks about it the fact the Michigan barely beat ND even though they were without their starting QB for an entire half. I don't think they win that game if Crist plays the whole game. When he came back for the 2nd half he tore UofM apart, however the team was already significantly behind.

    Michigan State has one of the most balanced attacks in the nation offensively. They ran for 175 yards against one of the nations best defenses in Wisconsin last week, while passing for 270. Defensively, they ended John Clay's 10 game streak with at least 100 yards rushing, holding him to 80 yards on 16 carries. The only reason the Wisconsin game was even close was due to 3 first half turnovers by MSU, yet they still went into halftime up 20-10. MSU's biggest weakness was supposed to be their secondary. They held Wisconsin QB Scott Tolzien to 127 yards as he completed less than half his passes. Last year, Tolzien threw for almost 300 yards on MSU and had 4 TDs.

    That brings me to the Denard Robinson factor. He is a great player, definitely one of the most dynamic players I've ever seen. I think MSU comes out and makes him beat them with his arm. MSU has 5 linebackers that would start at any school in the Big Ten, and I see them playing a 3-4 for most of the game as they did last year against UofM. Denard will find some running room, but he hasn't seen a rush defense even close to this one all season. Greg Jones might knock him out of the game as he did with Clay last week. I see Robinson rushing for around 100 yards and passing for just over 100, but unable to find as much room as he has against the likes of UMass, Bowling Green, Notre Dame, Connecticut, and Indiana (all who have terrible defenses).

    My prediction is the teams trade blows for the 1st half, but in the 2nd half MSU gets a two possession lead that they will have no problem hanging on to due to their running game and UoM's inability to stop anything. Denard might have some flashy plays, but I don't see him being able to win this one all by himself as he has against inferior opponents. MSU wins 38-21.
     
  2. Big Suge Knight

    Big Suge Knight Walk On

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    I am hoping that Rich Rod has something for the defense b/c we are going to need it. Michigan will be able to hit big plays but sustaining some longer drives to give the defense a rest will be key. I think the game will be low scoring 17 - 21 Michigan. Go Blue!! Bring back Paul Bunyan.
     
  3. jello1717

    jello1717 "Those who stay will be champions." -- Bo

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    Crist didn't look that great when he came back as he threw a pick like his replacements.

    This was much more about Clay's bum ankle than it was about MSU's D (keep in mind that I'm a big Spartans fan and am speaking objectively). Clay couldn't plant and cut at all. We did a shitty job of stopping Clay's healthy backup who ran for 98 and 2 TDs on only 10 carries.

    Firstly, do you not think that has been every coach's gameplan so far? That's much easier said than done. Secondly, have you noticed who's the 3rd most efficient QB in the country? I'll give you a hint. The guy is also leading the nation in rushing.

    As far as the game goes, I don't think that MSU (with as solid as their front 7 is) will have much more success stopping Robinson as any other team so far. He might not go for 200/200, but he still has a big day with probably about 150 rushing and 200+ passing. Michigan scores quickly like always (they had 600 yards in 18 minutes last week) which'll continue to keep our D tired. We score big as usual and probably put up 30+

    On the other side of the ball, MSU beats up our defense worse than UMass did. Every power running team we face (MSU, Wisconsin, aOSU) will just beat up our D and they'll be helpless to stop it. Cousins throws well when he has to, but Baker/Bell/Caper combined put up some stoopid numbers on the ground and Cousins' main job is to just give the ball to the back currently in the game. Because of this, MSU is able to match Michigan's offense and then some (not so much because their O is more capable of scoring than our O, but because their D is vastly more capable of stopping an O than ours). Our O owns the MSU D, but the MSU O owns the Michigan D even more so.

    Final: MSU 45 - Michigan 35 unless MSU runs tons of clock to keep the Michigan O off the field, then it's more like MSU 35 - Michigan 28.
     
  4. Basis4aDay56

    Basis4aDay56 Walk On

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    Notre Dame - 24
    Pitt - 21

    Ohhhhhh, you guys were talking about something else, weren't you? :D
     
  5. Psycho

    Psycho Walk On

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    Michigan State Wins...

    ok it's a prediction based on setting something up of what I think would be funny as hell. (BTW this prediction was made before the wis-msu game)

    Here's the deal, the best chance for a co-BigTen champion is for Ohio State and Michigan State to win out. So this means that next year there will be two "defending champions", unfortunately not really unique for the BigTen. Now add in a Nebraska team coming off a BigXII Championship, now you have three teams in one conference that are defending Conference Champs... now that's what I'm talking about. :D
     
  6. JCspartan2

    JCspartan2 Sparty Party

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    I have to say....I was right about this one. Denard looked very average against a real defense. Force him to throw the ball and he struggles. Thats what happens when you finally play a team with a defense rated higher that 85th in the country.
     
  7. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    Solid game by MSU today, no turnovers (rare vs Michigan) and the defense looked great. I have high hopes for them, I only fear Iowa as a loss, after seeing Penn St I do not see us losing to them.
     
  8. Basis4aDay56

    Basis4aDay56 Walk On

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    I bet on MSU today and loved every second of it...

    ... however ...

    ... if it wasn't for a fake field goal, ND would have beaten MSU at home. Gotta love teams that resort to trick plays to win!

    BTW, I am rooting for Michigan St to win the Big 11. You guys are the rival that I have the most respect for.
     
  9. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    Michigan St will make my Badgers look better than they actually are.
     
  10. JCspartan2

    JCspartan2 Sparty Party

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    Haha. There is no telling whether or not MSU wins that game if they decide to kick the FG instead. Our kicker is perfect on the season so far.

    And as I said before, I also don't think Mich beats ND if Crist is healthy for that whole game.

    I agree with you Masler, the only loss I see for MSU right now is the @Iowa game. However, MSU will be looking for some revenge against Iowa after what happened in East Lansing last year and that bullshit unnecessary roughness call. Penn State wont be easy because it's in Happy Valley, but that game is much less worrisome now.
     

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