Recruiting Research

Discussion in 'NCAA Football' started by BlyGilmore, Jul 14, 2010.

  1. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    Recruiting Research

    So last night I did some recruiting research to see both the caliber of player available, and also what players are likely to be toward the end of their playing career.

    I took 134 players from Pac-10 teams and followed them from their freshman season until they graduated four or five years later (keep in mind I'm only including players who played out their eligibility - i removed about 10 players who either transfered, were cut or went pro).

    There were some interesting findings ...

    - Players this year don't have the same kind of rapid progression as in years past. The most any player jumped from one season to the next was 6 points.

    - The better a player is coming in doesn't mean he'll progress faster. While most of the top per-season progressers were highly rated recruits who were high-70s freshman, some low 60s snuck into the mix as well. There are also some guys who were rated in the high 70s who barely progressed at all. So a players rating coming in doesn't necessarily reflect the pace he'll progress.

    - Redshirting a player really just gives him an extra year of average progression. Players who redshirt don't progress at a fast or slower pace later.

    - Year to year progression is pretty steady. The average player progress 2.73 points a year. In Year 2 its 2.60, Year 3 2.83, Year 4 2.76, Year 5 2.61.

    - The high yearly average progression was 5.33 a season (for a non-kicker type). The low, 1.

    - You can use this to try and figure out what a player might look like, best, average and worse case scenario once you get them and also determine a redshirt or not.

    - The number of points a player progresses in Year 2 is a pretty good indication of his total progression. 78 of the 134 players had an average yearly progression with +- 0.50 of their first season progression. So if a guy progressed 4 points in year two, he is very likely to progress between 4.5 and 3.5 points a season for his career.

    - Only 12 of the 134 swayed more than 1 point per year away from what they did their first year progressing.

    - So as a result after one season you can get a pretty good picture of what a given player is going to look like down the road. If he had a 1 point increase you might not want to hold onto him hoping he'll be awesome as a senior. However if you have a 65 overall player that jumps 4 points, he might be a solid backup/roll player a few years down the road.

    - The average player recruited sees and increase of 10 points overall from freshman year to graduation. The high was 18 points, the low 3. Just to prove the high caliber busts, the 3 point increase was an Oregon TE that was a 78 overall freshman and graduated an 81 overall.

    - Might not be a big enough sample size, but playing time might not be a huge aspect of this. USC had two good progressing recruit QBs who both finished over 90 overall despite only one of them getting playing time.

    Quick example ...

    HB Richardson recruited by USC. He came in as a freshman as a 76 overall.

    Using the info above we can tell he's likely to become an 85 overall by the time he graduates (3 years of progression at 2.73 points a year). Best case he's a 92 overall (3 years at 5.33). And if he's a flop, 79 overall (3 years at 1 overall).

    We can also use the info to make decisions about redshirting him. Add another year to all of that and we've got likely got an 87 overall, a 94 overall or an 80 overall.

    After season one we see he progresses 4 points overall to 80. From that we can be pretty certain he'll be an 84 overall junior and an 88 overall senior with a potential to go up or down 1. (He actually jumps 6 going into his junior year and ends up a 90).

    Here's the background info in Excel and PDF format ...

    http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.xls
    http://www.blygilmore.com/Recruiting.pdf
     
  2. Drifterbub

    Drifterbub Help me hide a body?

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    Impressive Bly. Nice work.
     
  3. Big-Bear-W

    Big-Bear-W Walk On

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    Darn straight... this is cool
    Now let's hide it so no-one else can see!!!!

    well done Bly
     
  4. Ragz1

    Ragz1 Walk On

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    Wow! Awesome work Bly! I considered trying this myself but you went way deeper than I would have! Thanks alot for the info!
     
  5. lukeoverture

    lukeoverture Walk On

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    this is amazing, man, thanks!
     
  6. GSUtiger

    GSUtiger GEAUX TIGERS!!

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    nice work man. great info to know when trying to put together a quality team
     
  7. bravejaf

    bravejaf Walk On

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    Very nice work. It gives a very good understanding on what to expect with this game in terms of player progression.
     
  8. MSU124

    MSU124 Walk On

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    One reason these numbers might be off is cuz the Pac-10 kind sucks(y)
     
  9. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Nicely done Bly...I love number geeks.:)
     
  10. DirtycashDylan

    DirtycashDylan I came here to scheme and chew bubblegum...

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    Thanks dude, need-to-know info for smaller teams.
     
  11. jello1717

    jello1717 "Those who stay will be champions." -- Bo

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    Good stuff. Looks like you're seeing the hidden potential rating they discussed in their blog in action here. I like it. This allows us to see different types of guys like:
    High OVR FR/high POT -> much higher OVR SR
    High OVR Fr/low POT -> slightly higer OVR SR
    low OVR Fr/high POT -> OVR rating as a SR competes with the guy above even though he came in rated a lot lower
    low OVR FR/low POT -> worthless guy.
     
  12. bigrice25

    bigrice25 Walk On

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    man, thats good stuff!!!!

    but i always thought the prestige of the school had an effect on progression, like a 1star schools players would progress slower than a 6star,

    am i wrong about that? probably am lol
     
  13. MorsDraconis

    MorsDraconis Walk On

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    That's what people thought at first, but it wasn't the case. It was the potential rating playing behind the scenes the entire time.

    And VERY nice work Bly. Greatly appreciated. Basically saved me from having to do it myself.

    (y)
     
  14. Diddy81

    Diddy81 Walk On

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    that's intense bro I like it
     
  15. fsuprime

    fsuprime Definitely Maybe

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    nice job man, thanks for the hard work.
     
  16. Tilion

    Tilion Walk On

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    exactly what I was looking for. Thanks for all the hardwork. I've been testing the waters for the SEC, but don't have enough data to be exact.
     
  17. JerzeyReign

    JerzeyReign #BeatOhio

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    Damn, mighty fine job you did there. Personally, I stopped reading because I like surprises but you're a better man than me for figuring this out.
     
  18. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    Again, then, I bring up the question of how to replace elite level talent? If most 5 stars come in around 80ovr, and most players progress on between 5 and 10 points (the min 3 the max 18), doesn't that mean that most teams will end up with 5 star recruits between 85-90ovr?

    Am I the only one that see's this as a problem? What about the 98ovr players like Mark Ingram or someone dominant like that? How do we account for them?

    I suppose the solution is, a player comes in rated above an 80, maybe 82 or 84 or something, and then progresses the max amount, about 15 or 16 overall points.

    To me though it seems like a very remote possibility that we will see any recruited players of this caliber; that kinda makes me sad. I hope I'm wrong and we see the occasional player come in rated like 85 or something to that effect.
     
  19. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    I think historically the first batch of players that comes with the game tends to be rated higher (its usually the same in Madden). I think its mostly a marketing/name recognition thing and you certainly won't see Sophomores rated 94 overall like Andrew Luck on Stanford.

    really the key to getting guys into the 90s is going to be redshirting them. this isn't without risk, since you might end up with a stud who bolts to the NFL early. If you do that a guy with high potential, you can have a guy as low as 70 as a freshman hit the 90s, and 75 overalls. and an 80 overall will be pushing the high 90s.

    it'll be interesting to see how team building plays out this year. with more of an emphasis on things other than speed, you're really going to need to recruit a couple of years out if you don't want to have serious holes in your team. just not sure you'll be able to compete with say an HB that's fast but only 75 overall. dude's going to be fumbling, getting wicked tired, etc.
     
  20. Diddy81

    Diddy81 Walk On

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    did you by chance track the distribution of 5 star recruits do you think there will be a need to limit how many each team can sign for an OD
     
  21. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    nah didn't look at this from a "how to recruit people or what your recruits might look like" point of view. instead more of a "ok you've recruited a handful of players, here's what they'll be as a senior" point of view.

    besides generally speaking i think the players overall is a pretty good indication of what their caliber was.
     
  22. Full Moon Fever

    Full Moon Fever Champion of Standards

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  23. mustangsfc16

    mustangsfc16 Walk On

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    Mkeller - I'm with you on this one. I want to see a few DOMINANT players. But with this type of progression it looks like we'll get very few players in the high 90's. Now I agree that too many players in the 90's is a bad idea but I most certainly want to see some skill position players being rated in the high 90's. And I want these players to be game changers.

    I really hope this doesn't ruin dynasty for me by not allowing some players to become stars.

    I want to see a greater standard deviation or variance with the progression. Why not have a player who had a stud year progress 10 points? And if you sat the bench and have a low potential why even progress at all?

    Just throwin it out there....
     
  24. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    bump ...
     
  25. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    So Basically 4-5 years into our league every team will be crap and cupcakes will never be able to get better. Great.
     

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