Redshirt Data

Discussion in 'The Deuce' started by GoGators, May 4, 2011.

  1. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    7,893
    I was bored at work today and while messing around on dynasty wire I sparked a curiousity regarding redshirts. My question was how often do users redshirt players and is it comparable to the rate the CPU redshirts players. So using the data downloads from the wire I threw together a quick study.

    I picked all 11 user teams and compared them with 8 randomly selected cpu teams. I wrote a lovely macro in excel to count the number of players redshirted and total number of players per team to produce a percentage of players redshirted. Pretty interesting stuff.

    Here's the results:

    Team Redshirts Total Players %
    WF 39 70 55.71%
    Tenn 40 69 57.97%
    SC 46 70 65.71%
    OM 48 70 68.57%
    NC 43 70 61.43%
    MSU 47 70 67.14%
    Mia 40 69 57.97%
    GT 41 70 58.57%
    UGA 33 70 47.14%
    FSU 36 70 51.43%
    BC 36 63 57.14%
    Totals 449 761 59.00%


    For the CPU:

    Team Redshirts Total Players %
    VT 37 70 52.86%
    Ala 25 70 35.71%
    Clem 44 70 62.86%
    Iowa 30 70 42.86%
    ND 31 70 44.29%
    OSU 33 70 47.14%
    TCU 37 70 52.86%
    USC 30 70 42.86%
    Totals 267 560 47.68%


    So it's pretty interesting to see that we redshirt a few more players on average than the CPU does (granted I don't know what the hell happened at Clemson!). If I remove Clemson from the data it drops the CPU redshirt % to 45%

    I'm not sure if it's a big difference, but I'd imagine a redshirted vs non redshirted player is approx +5 overall. So that's a pretty decent margin in favor of user controlled teams just from redshirting more players than the cpu does.

    What do you guys think? If anything else this can spark some debate for possible rule modifications for the `12 launch.
     
  2. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    7,893
    And I'd like to award @JrRawlins with the award for "Most Realistic Redshirter in the Deuce".
     
  3. JrRawlins

    JrRawlins People hate me cause they aint me...

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    7,578
    i love playing true freshman.... and letting them start 4 years if they are capable....
     
  4. Drifterbub

    Drifterbub Help me hide a body?

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    17,173
    Featured Threads:
    1
    He also took over Georgia and had to play his own guys to replace some really bad players.

    I spoke about using realistic redshirting this year. I bet probably 40% of my redshirts are automatic. Had you taken this data in year 8, I bet I had the least redshirts. And I'm talking about :2stars: and :3stars: guys I was having as role players.

    The real problem is the linear progression model that the CPU uses for generated recruits. Rarely ever are you going to sign a kid (even a top 10 athlete) and he is going to have a better OVR than your current roster guy. Our teams are much more developed and the types of classes we are signing are night and day different than the classes we were signing 4-5 seasons ago (excluding Ole Miss).

    Good study though, Gators. It would be more telling if we had trending data from previous seasons. I kind of dropped the ball on that this year. With how busy the site has been I haven't been able to keep records like I did in NCAA '10.
     
  5. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    7,893
    I ran the user study in the experience too. That leagues only in season 7 or 8 but the redshirting numbers are still similar.

    I think the interesting point here though is while in real life, the redshirting numbers may be closer to ours, in the virtual world EA has created they are not. Staying in line with the cpu's world would help keep the cpu more competitive longer I'd imagine. It's just a guess though. If you figure we're 10% heavy on redshirts that's approx 7 guys on the team that are starting likely starting and are 5 overall points higher than the average guy the cpu is putting on the field. It's an interesting divergence.
     
  6. Drifterbub

    Drifterbub Help me hide a body?

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    17,173
    Featured Threads:
    1
    I don't think it's like this in real life. I would be willing to bet that redshirting percentages are higher at schools with long term coaches (and thus established programs). Much like Frank Beamer at Virginia Tech as opposed to Mike Sherman at Texas A&M (who played 18, 14 and 9 true freshmen in his first three years respectively).

    In the game, most of us are established coaches with consistent recruiting classes that have backfilled talent into our programs.

    It brings up another interesting point, though. The logic that the CPU uses to order it's depth chart simply CANNOT be the same logic it uses to sort ours. I've seen the 2nd MLB playing both backup to both OLB spots. The #2 FS and SS playing corner. Same with OL and DL. With that logic, most players would automatically redshirt because they haven't seen the field at all.
     
  7. Nautica

    Nautica #whatisdrugs?

    Joined:
    Jul 27, 2009
    Messages:
    7,915
    I don't have the exact number because I'm not at home, but UB's roster is riddled with rs'. I always thought that smaller programs rs'ed players far more than larger programs.

    I thought this was the thread in the E. When seeing it on the list of current threads on forum runner at first. This is a great discussion topic.
     
  8. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

    Joined:
    Jul 14, 2010
    Messages:
    8,018
    I think a big part of it is lack of rotations. Dline doesnt rotate in and out unless they go out for a breather. So having a ton of freshmen ready to come in for depth purposes isnt all that necessary.
     
  9. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

    Joined:
    May 19, 2009
    Messages:
    7,893
    This is an interesting point. The data we're missing though is what's happening under the hood of EA's sim engine when a cpu team plays a cpu team. The CPU plays full 60 minute games compared to our 32 minute games (15 vs 8 min qtrs). This could drastically effect the fatigue ratings (I've never tested it by playing a 15 min qtr game). If fatigue sets in during a cpu vs cpu simmed game, guys might actually start to rotate. If the starting MLB is in as the #2 OLB but he's fatigued beyond the floor limit in the settings, he'll be skipped and the next player will be subbed in.

    Also, if a cpu team is up big, and they go to mass subs, who knows who could get put in. For example you only have 3 TE spots. If you go to your second string offense and run a 3 TE heavy set, where does the 3rd (4th TE by depth chart) come from? That's something that would not allow a cpu player to be redshirted if he wasn't redshirted during preseason.

    Interesting stuff here.

    To Nautica's point it is typical that smaller programs do redshirt players because it's their only way to compete. I distinctly recall reading an article in SI about Wake Forest's redshirting policy that nearly everyone gets redshirted. Reason being that they can't recruit many 4 and 5 star guys so they need that 3 star to have an extra year of development for him to compete at the level of a 4 or 5 star that's a true JR. This was the case with that OLB they had go in the top 10 of the NFL draft a year or two ago.

    Schools that sign top tier talent though don't typically redshirt their elite players. I can only speak of UF but from Meyer's last recruiting class you had Powell, Floyd, Easley, and Elam all play as true freshman. Those guys were all 5 star recruits. IMO not many 5 star recruits redshirt these days. They want immediate playing time and they tend to go to schools where they can get it.
     
  10. theSANDMAN215

    theSANDMAN215 Hokie, Hokie, Hokie, HI

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    5,169
    I'm not surprised at all to see my team in the top 3.

    I redshirt most of my players unless they can break the two-deep. Like Mustang said though, what's the point of not redshirting a guy who will just be a backup? They very rarely play because the stamina in this game is so broken it isn't funny. The main freshman that play for me are cornerbacks or a safety. I do play redshirt freshman, but I just feel I have enough depth where I don't need to burn a redshirt on a guy that may see the field only a few times a season.
     
  11. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2009
    Messages:
    10,802
    My teams would always have the least redshirts because I don't redshirt anyone. All of mine are automatic.
     

Share This Page