Redshirt Data

Discussion in 'The Experience' started by GoGators, May 4, 2011.

  1. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

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    I was bored at work today and while messing around on dynasty wire I sparked a curiousity regarding redshirts. My question was how often do users redshirt players and is it comparable to the rate the CPU redshirts players. So using the data downloads from the wire I threw together a quick study.

    I picked all user teams that have been controlled for majority of the dynast and compared them with 8 randomly selected cpu teams. I wrote a lovely macro in excel to count the number of players redshirted and total number of players per team to produce a percentage of players redshirted. Pretty interesting stuff.

    Here's the results:

    Team Redshirts Total Players %
    UVA 40 70 57.14%
    Ala 33 66 50.00%
    Clem 38 70 54.29%
    UF 38 67 56.72%
    FSU 45 70 64.29%
    GT 41 68 60.29%
    UofM 28 60 46.67%
    MSU 35 67 52.24%
    PSU 51 70 72.86%
    OSU 29 59 49.15%
    Totals 378 667 56.67%


    For the CPU:

    Team Redshirts Total Players %
    VT 37 70 52.86%
    Ala 25 70 35.71%
    Clem 44 70 62.86%
    Iowa 30 70 42.86%
    ND 31 70 44.29%
    OSU 33 70 47.14%
    TCU 37 70 52.86%
    USC 30 70 42.86%
    Totals 267 560 47.68%


    So it's pretty interesting to see that we redshirt a few more players on average than the CPU does (granted I don't know what the hell happened at Clemson!). If I remove Clemson from the data it drops the CPU redshirt % to 45%

    I'm not sure if it's a big difference, but I'd imagine a redshirted vs non redshirted player is approx +5 overall. So that's a pretty decent margin in favor of user controlled teams just from redshirting more players than the cpu does.

    What do you guys think? If anything else this can spark some debate for possible rule modifications for the `12 launch.

    My initial thought is that one of the rule modifications we make for `12 is to put a cap on redshirts every year, say 50% of your incoming class. This could hopefully keep the talent on our teams more in line with the CPU's and keep them more competitive over the course of the dynasty.
     
  2. Nautica

    Nautica #whatisdrugs?

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    Very interesting. I think the reason that guys get redshirted is because most of the time they are hurried in the depth chart. U can tell a guy that they can only redshirt x amount of players but if a guy they don't rs doesn't see the field he will get that rs anyways. Last year in my league I had the rule of you can only recruit for a position that you have a 4 year guy at, with the plus 3 rule. I liked it because it would stop teams from over recruiting at positions where they had no need.
     
  3. Nautica

    Nautica #whatisdrugs?

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    I hate auto correct. I'll explain it more when I get home.
     
  4. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    I usually redshirt the very last person (unless they are second string) at that position, which means they are usually 65 overall, sometimes in the low 70s. I try to prepare two seasons ahead of time, that's why I keep getting decent backs.
     
  5. Nautica

    Nautica #whatisdrugs?

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  6. blLL flo

    blLL flo BTFU!

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    How can Clemson (and Ala and OSU) be on the user and CPU list? And then you have different numbers for the same team between the lists?
     
  7. AJ Hart MN

    AJ Hart MN Marseille - TFL Season 1 Champions

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    Yikes!! I'm ashamed of me and I'm me.. :oops:

    I would give you some sort of nice excuse but In all reality, I like to redshirt guys.. I would have no issue with implementing some sort of rule to limit the redshirts.. We can call it the AJ rule.. :D
     
  8. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

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    Haha. I noted it earlier but then I modified it. Originally I ran this using the Deuce rosters. Then I re-ran it for the experience but didn't feel like updating the CPU stats. I'm confident the results would be the same since the CPU's programming is the same for both leagues. So the user numbers are actual numbers for this league. The CPU numbers are taken from the Deuce dynasty.

    Should have posted that disclaimer.
     
  9. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

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    Also, I don't think anybody is really pushing the limits of realism here, well except for AJ and maybe...maybe Dakota. But there was no rule in place so it's all fair game this year.

    My concern though is that in any given season we are redshirting 10% (approx 7 guys) more than the CPU. If you figure the average progression is approx 5 overall points that means most user teams are putting 7 guys on the field that are 5 points better than their CPU counterpart in any given game just by redshirting alone. It has nothing to do with recruiting or anything else. It's really an unfair advantage that we are creating against the CPU.

    Now I understand that some schools do redshirt more than 50% of their players, but if the CPU isn't programmed that way and clearly they are not, then we are tipping the odds in our favor solely by our redshirting.
     
  10. Randiesel75

    Randiesel75 Walk On

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    I agree with this. My suggestion is to crunch the numbers again after a healthy simulation of a few seasons with NCAA 12 before officially starting. This allows The Experience to 1) determine the percentage of CPU redshirts (interested to see the delta between 11 v 12), then 2) institute a new rule to effectively force an even playing field between the CPU & Users for total redshirts.
     
  11. blLL flo

    blLL flo BTFU!

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    Aren't some of these numbers for the CPU skewed based on the depth chart problems with CPU teams? When they have no depth at LB or CB then of course there will be no red shirting. Hopefully they will fix this for 12, so I agree with Randiesel that we should take a look at how it's changed for the new version.
     
  12. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    I have to honest, I have no idea what the real life redshift percentage is. I just know that at Wisconsin, just about everyone redshirts. Sorry if I'm too high.
     
  13. GoGators

    GoGators GT: KSherm

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    Randy makes a good point and it's definitely something to test and consider before kicking off season 1 in `12.

    As @dakota7 and @bill flo pointed out, I don't think we're necessarily redshirting too many guys it's more that the CPU logic doesn't properly apply redshirts. My point is the consequence of this can create an advantage for us as users for no real reason. Then as a consequence it forces JC to mess with the sliders to try to get competitive games. I'd rather us try to close the gap between the user and cpu team talent levels and keep gameplay closer to default if possible.

    All this is heresay until `12 though but it's something to keep in mind.
     
  14. Big Suge Knight

    Big Suge Knight Walk On

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    I end up redshirting quite a few guys b/c I never have great classes that I am bringing in so I have guys that are borderline except in a couple areas. So the redshirt allows them to mature and and become more well rounded. To even out my number over the past few season I have brought in JUCO guys that see the field right away or are key backups.
     
  15. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    I've been doing the same. Even if it's for only one season, the JUCOs can give you alot...i.e. Cam Newton...won JUCO National Champ then the BCS...
     

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