Schedule Breakdown

Discussion in 'Thread Archive' started by aarondramp, Jul 18, 2011.

  1. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    I did a little schedule analysis to get a breakdown on the strength of schedule of our CPU opponents and set the over/under win totals for CPU games.

    I broke down the CPU opponents into four terrible football soaked cliché categories:
    1. Must win: Any team that is a 78 or below. The best 1* team is Western Michigan at 78, so you need to beat a team that is 78 or worse.
    2. You have to leave it all out on the field: Teams rated 79-84. Leaving it all out on the field would really be quite the mess.
    3. You better give it 110%: Teams rated 85-89. 110% is physically impossible…just saying.
    4. Hail Mary: Teams rated 90 or higher. I’m pretty sure that God and Mary don’t care about your football game.
    This could maybe be a sliding scale as San Jose State is a 63 overall and Western Michigan is a 78 overall, so a game that is a leave it all on the field for SJSU is a game that WMU will probably win.

    So here is each team with the number of teams they play in each category. I then set the win total that could be used for their over-under number for the CPU games for the season.

    UAB (70 OVR): 1/3/3/2
    O/U: 3 wins

    Memphis (66 OVR): 2/3/ 3/ 1
    O/U: 3.5 wins

    San Jose St. (63 OVR): 4/3/1/1
    O/U: 4.5 wins

    Tulane (69 OVR): 4/1/3/1
    O/U: 4.5 wins

    FIU (70 OVR): 5/1/2/1
    O/U: 5 wins

    MTSU (72 OVR): 5/2/1/1
    O/U: 5.5 wins

    Utah St. (72 OVR): 5/2/1/1
    O/U: 5.5 wins

    Arkansas St. (74 OVR): 6/1/0/2
    O/U: 6.5 wins

    Idaho (75 OVR): 5/3/0/1
    O/U: 6.5 wins

    Kent St. (72 OVR): 7/1/0/1
    O/U: 7 wins

    W. Michigan (78 OVR): 7/1/0/1
    O/U: 7.5 wins

    Army (75 OVR): 2/4/2/1
    O/U: 8 wins - this number would've been lower before they beat Notre Dame
     
  2. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    We should get an idea how this season will play out soon. Some big CPU games this week:

    Middle Tennessee State vs. Syracuse (81 OVR)

    Tulane vs. Tulsa (86 OVR)

    San Jose St. vs. UCLA (84 OVR)

    Memphis vs. Vanderbilt (80 OVR)
     
  3. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    I think we can hang with the teams in the 80's...its the top tier that we really are gonna struggle with for a while. But you gotta play your game and not turn the ball over. You do that against anyone of these CPU teams, you are gonna get beat!

    Nice analysis aaron!
     
  4. dakota7

    dakota7 Former Blue Chip Recruit

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    Give me a dime on Tulane and the over.
     
  5. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    If I win 6, i will be very happy. If I win 4, I'll probably keep my job :) so thats the goal. I didnt realize SJSU was 63 OVR, whoops!
     
  6. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    WMU and Kent State have no excuse not to make it to the MAC CG, according to aaron's logic. No pressure MexiRican35 and JFace907
     
  7. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    Meanwhile C-USA has it tough. Only two conference games against teams under 84 that are CPU teams.
     
  8. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    You could have stayed in the Mountain West :)
     
  9. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    Mountain West is tough too. I probably could've done okay, but Boise and TCU aren't going anywhere...and New Mexico got jobbed on the ratings. Their only decent players were seniors.
     
  10. MexiRican35

    MexiRican35 ¿Te quieres naranjas?

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    2 games and about 8 picks later, I'll be lucky to reach 4 wins...
     
  11. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    I see your 8 picks and raise you to 12!
     
  12. gowazzucougs

    gowazzucougs WSU is better than UCLA

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    First, I want to say this is some serious indepth analysis. Second, after my game against W. Michigan I am going with the over. I believe if I can beat WSU, and then Fresno I see a WAC Conference Title in the Vandals future. I just don't want to jinx it.
     
  13. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    i'll be happy with 4 and keeping my job!
     
  14. Darr27z

    Darr27z The Scroolest

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    You got to pick before me....
     
  15. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    Good point!
     
  16. gowazzucougs

    gowazzucougs WSU is better than UCLA

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    I get the sense the user games are going to be huge games while we are with these shitty teams. I feel sky high after beating Mexi and his Western State Broncos. I am a quarter of the way to 4 wins.
     
  17. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    I have 3 of them and need to win all them I think. In the WAC, Im pretty sure I can hang with just about every team but Fresno maybe. My OOC is Colorado State and BYU so who knows. Im hoping the more comfortable I get with the game, the better the results will be in this OD.
     
  18. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    I'm hoping for the same. If half of us get fired then what happens? We will just have the same program rehire us with a different coach?
     
  19. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    Thats the big unknown I guess. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it! I think once we get into conference play, we should be alright. We can all win 4, can't we? (im being optimistic)
     
  20. gowazzucougs

    gowazzucougs WSU is better than UCLA

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    Just FYI you are not hanging with me. My team is pretty good.
     
  21. recchem2000

    recchem2000 UCLA > WSU

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    I'll hang with you...don't worry, im giving the WAC title to you!
     

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