Season 2 Playoff Outlook

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by Cheez, Mar 15, 2014.

  1. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    We're through 12 weeks of the year, so it's about time that we start looking for the playoffs. While a number of the division leaders look like the division is wrapped up, there are still a couple races out there that will be interesting to watch. The wildcard, as always, looks to go to the wire as well.

    Stay tuned for my Week 12 Update!
     
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  2. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Note: All comments will be in regards to games as of the end of week 12. The standings will show week 13 games that have been played, but my commentary will not include these games.

    S2W12 1.jpg S2W12 2.jpg S2W12 3.jpg S2W12 4.jpg


    AFC WILDCARD STANDINGS:
    5. New England (8-3)
    6. Indianapolis (8-3)
    ------------------------------------
    Cleveland (7-4)
    Buffalo (6-4-1)
    San Diego (5-6)
    Denver (5-6)
    Baltimore (4-7)
    Oakland (4-7)
    Tennessee (4-7)
    Pittsburgh (4-7)

    NFC WILDCARD STANDINGS
    5. Philadelphia (7-4)
    6. Seattle (7-4)
    ------------------------------------
    Atlanta (6-5)
    San Francisco (6-5)
    New Orleans (5-6)
    Detroit (5-6)
    Green Bay (4-7)
    Tampa Bay (3-8)

    WEEK 13 CLINCHING SCENARIOS
    Minnesota can clinch the NFC North with a Win + DET Loss
    St. Louis can clinch a playoff berth with a Win + ATL Loss + SF Loss

    IF PLAYOFFS BEGAN TODAY
    AFC
    Home Field: New York Jets
    1st Round Bye: Houston
    Wild Card Games: 3. Kansas City vs. 6. Indianapolis ; 4. Cincinnati vs. 5. New England

    NFC
    Home Field: St. Louis
    1st Round Bye: Washington
    Wild Card Games: 3. Minnesota vs. 6. Seattle ; 4. Carolina vs. 5. Philadelphia
     
    Last edited: Mar 15, 2014
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  3. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    BrewBomber - Thanks for liking this today. You reminded me that we advanced.

    Time to update!

    Thanks to everyone else who is liking / following along as well.
     
  4. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Note: All comments will be in regards to games as of the end of week 13. The standings will show week 14 games that have been played, but my commentary will not include these games.

    S2W13 1.jpg S2W13 2.jpg S2W13 3.jpg S2W13 4.jpg

    AFC WILDCARD STANDINGS:
    5. New England (9-3)
    6. Indianapolis (8-4)
    ------------------------------------
    Buffalo (7-4-1)
    Cincinnati (7-5)
    Denver (6-6)
    Oakland (5-7)
    Tennessee (5-7)
    San Diego (5-7)

    NFC WILDCARD STANDINGS
    5. Philadelphia (8-4)
    6. Seattle (8-4)
    ------------------------------------
    Carolina (7-5)
    San Francisco (6-6)
    New Orleans (6-6)
    Detroit (5-7)
    Green Bay (5-7)

    WEEK 14 CLINCHING SCENARIOS
    St. Louis can clinch a playoff berth with a Win OR a Carolina Loss
    Kansas City can clinch the AFC West with a Win + a Denver Loss
    Washington can clinch a playoff berth with a Win + a Carolina Loss

    IF PLAYOFFS BEGAN TODAY
    AFC
    Home Field: New York Jets
    1st Round Bye: Houston
    Wild Card Games: 3. Kansas City vs. 6. Indianapolis ; 4. Cleveland vs. 5. New England

    NFC
    Home Field: St. Louis
    1st Round Bye: Washington
    Wild Card Games: 3. Minnesota vs. 6. Seattle ; 4. Atlanta vs. 5. Philadelphia
     
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  5. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    The NFC North is mine, all mine!
     
  6. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    S2W14 1.jpg S2W14 2.jpg S2W14 3.jpg S2W14 4.jpg

    AFC WILDCARD STANDINGS:
    5. New England (10-3)
    6. Buffalo (8-4-1)
    ------------------------------------
    Cincinnati (8-5)
    Indianapolis (8-5)
    Denver (7-6)
    Tennessee (6-7)

    NFC WILDCARD STANDINGS
    5. Philadelphia (9-4)
    6. Seattle (8-5)
    ------------------------------------
    Atlanta (7-6)
    Green Bay (6-7)
    San Francisco (6-7)
    New Orleans (6-7)
    Detroit (5-8)

    WEEK 15 CLINCHING SCENARIOS
    Houston can clinch AFC South with a win + IND loss
    New York can clinch a playoff berth with a win OR a CIN loss + BAL loss
    New England can clinch a playoff berth with a win OR a CIN loss + BAL loss
    Kansas City can clinch AFC West with a win
    Washington can clinch NFC East with a win
    Philadelphia can clinch playoff berth win a win + ATL loss
    St. Louis can clinch NFC West with a win OR a SEA loss
    St. Louis can clinch 1st Round Bye with a win + MIN loss

    IF PLAYOFFS BEGAN TODAY
    AFC
    Home Field: New York Jets
    1st Round Bye: Cleveland
    Wild Card Games: 3. Houston vs. 6. Buffalo ; 4. Kansas City vs. 5. New England

    NFC
    Home Field: St. Louis
    1st Round Bye: Washington
    Wild Card Games: 3. Minnesota vs. 6. Seattle ; 4. Atlanta vs. 5. Philadelphia
     
  7. LSUWhoDat78

    LSUWhoDat78 Walk On

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    In other news....battle for the likely number one pick to take place this weekend.
    Giants @ Chicago
    Roggie
     
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  8. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Doesn't PIG BOMB Have something to say about that?
     
  9. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    I'm pretty sure it will be something like "Romo sucks , I'm gonna go score some sexigoals now"
     
  10. SwagKingCole23

    SwagKingCole23 Walk On

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    Man the race for the NFC south is tight between ZCar352 and I.
     
  11. ZCar352

    ZCar352 Keep Pounding...Go Panthers!!!

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    Its going to be an interesting race to the finish thats for sure.
     
  12. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    If Madden uses the NFL tiebreakers (not sure it does, but it's what I use when forecasting), then Carolina CURRENTLY has the tiebreaker based on record vs. common opponents. This could change over the course of the next few weeks.
     
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  13. SwagKingCole23

    SwagKingCole23 Walk On

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    [​IMG]
     
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  14. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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  15. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    I am suddenly a fan of whomever plays BRUCE80
     
  16. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    i got him this week... my playoff life on the line
     
  17. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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  18. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Thanks. I have the work down, but I haven't had a chance to type it up.
     
  19. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Coming into Week 16:

    AFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS
    1. New York (11-3) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    2. Cleveland (10-4)
    3. Houston (9-5)
    4. Denver (8-6)
    5. New England (11-3) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    6. Buffalo (9-4-1)
    ------------------------------------
    Cincinnati (9-5)
    Indianapolis (8-6)
    Kansas City (8-6)

    NFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS
    1. St. Louis (12-2) -> Clinched NFC West
    2. Minnesota (11-3) -> Clinched NFC North
    3. Washington (10-3-1) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    4. Atlanta (7-7)
    5. Philadelphia (10-4) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    6. Seattle (9-5)
    ------------------------------------
    Carolina (7-7)
    Green Bay (7-7)
    San Francisco (7-7)

    WEEK 16 CLINCHING SCENARIOS
    Atlanta can clinch the NFC West with a win + CAR Loss
    Buffalo can clinch a playoff berth with a win + CIN Loss
    Cleveland can clinch the AFC North with a Win + CIN Loss
    Cleveland can clinch a 1st Round Bye with a Win + CIN Loss + HOU Loss
    Houston can clinch the AFC South with a Win OR IND Loss
    Minnesota can clinch a first round bye with a Win + WAS Loss
    New England can clinch the AFC East and a 1st round bye with a Win
    New England can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a Win + CLE Loss
    New York can clinch the AFC East and a 1st round bye with a Win
    New York can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a Win + CLE Loss
    Seattle can clinch a playoff berth with a Win OR a CAR Loss + GB Loss
    St. Louis can clinch a 1st Round Bye with a Win OR a MIN Loss OR a WAS Loss
    St. Louis can clinch home field advantage throughout the playoffs with a Win + MIN Loss or a WAS Loss + MIN Loss
    Washington can clinch the NFC East with a win + PHI Loss
     
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  20. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Standings Updated through part of Week 16 (we'll call them the early games)

    AFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS
    1. New England (12-3) -> Clinched AFC East and Home Field throughout AFC Playoffs
    2. Cleveland (10-4)
    3. Houston (10-5)
    4. Kansas City (8-6)
    5. New York (11-4) -> Clinched Wildcard Spot
    6. Buffalo (10-4-1)
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Cincinnati (9-5)
    Denver (8-7) [only alive in division race]

    NFC PLAYOFF STANDINGS
    1. Minnesota (12-3) -> Clinched NFC North
    2. St. Louis (12-3) -> Clinched NFC West
    3. Washington (10-3-1) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    4. Atlanta (7-7)
    5. Philadelphia (10-4) -> Clinched Playoff Berth
    6. Seattle (9-5)
    -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Green Bay (8-7)
    San Francisco (8-7)
    Carolina (7-8) [only alive in division race]
    New Orleans (6-8) [only alive in the division race]

    Notes
    • In the event that SF, GB, and SEA all finish 9-7, GB would hold the tiebreaker. (The Richuation if you tank your week 17 game I will hunt you down :p)
    • Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over St. Louis for home field advantage via strength of victory.
    • There is far too much shit going on for me to simulate all of the scenarios for the 2nd bye in the AFC at this time. Cin, Hou, Cle, and KC are all theoretically in play for that spot, however. I will revisit after more games have been played
     
    Last edited: Mar 23, 2014
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  21. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    Well, in all fairness, im not mathematically eliminated. GB has to beat Chi first
     
  22. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Wow... that was mighty presumptuous of me.

    I'm sorry Rich... let me fix that for you. You are absolutely correct - If you win and I lose next week, 9ers are the 6th seed.
     
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  23. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    Shouldn't I have been eliminated in pre-season ?
     
  24. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    you're not sim

    only explanation :p
     
  25. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    Ok, so I took some time and did some figuring for that 2nd seed in the AFC. There are 5 possible scenarios that yield a tie (there are many others that would have a team win it outright):
    These scenarios only represent division winners. The Cleveland / Cincinnati tiebreaker would take place before the multiple team tiebreak for the 2nd seed.
    1. Cleveland and Houston tie -> Cleveland has tiebreaker via Head-to-Head
    2. Cleveland, Houston, and Kansas City all tie -> Kansas City has tiebreaker via Conference Record
    3. Cincinnati and Houston tie -> Houston has tiebreaker via Head-to-Head
    4. Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas City all tie, with Cincinnati's win coming vs. Arizona -> Kansas City has tiebreaker via Conference Record
    5. Cincinnati, Houston, and Kansas City all tie, with Cincinnati's win coming vs. Pittsburgh -> Kansas City has tiebreaker via Conference Record (eliminates Houston) and Common opponents over Cincinnati
    While Cincinnati does not hold any of these tiebreakers, they could still win the 2 seed by winning the division by winning out with Cleveland losing one of their two final games, and Houston losing in Week 17.
     
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