Situational Recruiting

Discussion in 'The Experience' started by Archie Griffin, Sep 28, 2009.

  1. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    Situational Recruiting

    Just a couple thoughts on team management, using my own guys as examples:

    Here's my Middle Linebackers:

    Sabino (JR) - 92
    Gilbert (FR) - 85
    McConnell (FR) 83 - redshirting

    Now, since Sabino could go pro, I should probably have a guy on my list, right? Thing is, everyone seems to always want the best available. I can understand this, but what happens if I get a five-star MLB this year (let's say he's a bonus guy)? Answer: He looks really good on my roster, and then he transfers. Now, if I get a three star (maybe from a state I want to create a pipeline in, for example), is this a better use of my scholarship? I think it is, even if I pass on a bonus guy for a three star.

    I'll have two new pipeline states at the start of next year, and even though I have an A+ roster, I bet I'll have fewer transfers than most.

    It's great to have nothing but studs on your roster, but the headaches it creates are more trouble than they're worth, if you ask me. Now, you can't argue with the success Basis is having, and Dat will be loaded soon, too, but how do you recruit when you have twenty-seven 90+ guys? How do you know what you will need? I put the over/under on transfers and guys going pro at something in the double digit range.

    Anyway, I try to approach my searches this way. It's probably just because I can't compete for all the studs, but I have no idea how I would go about recruiting if half my roster could very likely vanish after each season. I don't know how some of you guys manage.

    Anyway, there's my excuse for not keeping up. :D Anyone believe a word of it?
     
  2. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    Also, isn't the "Program Stability" pitch tied to this kind of stuff?
     
  3. jello1717

    jello1717 "Those who stay will be champions." -- Bo

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    Off topic, but does this mean that you're not switching to a 3-4 like you said before?

    On topic, I'd much rather have studs than duds. If I have guys transferring away, I'll have other studs to replace them. I use much more of a "reload" philosophy than a "rebuild" philosophy. Look at your example. Let's say you assume your 92JR will leave. I would recruit a stud if possible. Maybe he comes in as an 80 (which is much below your 2 FR from last year). Your 85FR and 83FR will both likely return, but maybe 1 transfers away. You'll still likely have an 88-90 SO guy returning with your 80 FR to back him up.
     
  4. jello1717

    jello1717 "Those who stay will be champions." -- Bo

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    I don't know about this, but I was pretty shocked to see my program stability up to A+ this year.
     
  5. Blaza

    Blaza In Arsene Wenger I Trust

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    Hey boys, I'm butting in here but wanted to contribute to the discussion. I'm in a related situation in one of my dynasties. I recruited 2 nasty QB's, one a 5 star and the other I believe a 4 star. My current starter will be a senior next year and if he stays he is definitely still the starter. His backup is a capable junior.

    My question is, how likely is one or both of my QB's to transfer if I redshirt them? Is there a rhyme or reason to this? If I recall correctly, one of the A+ pitches on at least one of the QB's was playing time.
     
  6. JHeb

    JHeb Sooner Magic

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    Looking over all of our "overall team grades" we're all loaded or dang near it...I'm all A+'s as are a few other guys. It's crazy.

    As for the transfer thing noted above by Blaza, I'm worried about my stud QB (Jordan)...I'm redshirting him this season b/c I have Bradford back and Landry Jones (93THP, 87THA) backing him up...Jones is an 86 or 87 overall while Jordan is an 86. No need to use Jordan right now, but I do worry he'll want to leave.
     
  7. jello1717

    jello1717 "Those who stay will be champions." -- Bo

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    I don't think any of us can answer these transfer questions as we don't have any experience with it (unless we're deep into an offline dynasty). We all played '09 to death, but '10 is different with its out of control progression. If transfers are based on P.T. and skill then we should have a lot more transfers than in '09. If it's only P.T., thenit shouldn't be any worse than in '09.

    Example in extremely simplistic terms (as there are surely other factors)
    P.T. and skill:
    if (OVR > X and P.T. < Y)
    recruit transfers
    else
    recruit stays

    as opposed to just P.T.
    if (P.T. < X)
    transfers
    else
    stays
     
  8. Basis4aDay56

    Basis4aDay56 Walk On

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    Nope! I do like how you rationalize not getting the best recruits with Ohio State, which just happens to be one of the easiest schools to recruit with. ;)

    I don't have any idea how to approach my recruiting this season. I have never been in the position of having a team like this before. I think that after I cover my needs that I'll try to speculate on where I might have guys turn pro or transfer. Who knows. Going to have to feel it out this year.
     
  9. BRUCE80

    BRUCE80 Let the dirt just shower over you..

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    I have never recruited just by the number of stars next to a players name.

    I look at the attributes and make a decision based on what they tell me.

    An example of this was in T1, I was recruiting a 2 star and 4 star DE.

    To me the two star player looked like the better player but the stars said otherwise.

    Long story short I stuck with what the raw tools told me and I was right at least in this case.

    The two star DE ended up 78 overall as a true frosh and the four star was a 76 overall.

    Overall also doesnt tell the whole story, the two star DE has 86 sp 82 str and 87 acc. His tackle numbers and high as are his pass rush numbers.

    He stinks as a cover guy and his awr was low but that isnt what he was recruited for. He has all the skills to get to the passer. The four star DE is really really average and may get cut if he doesnt progress well.

    The true test of course will be when he gets to play. I have also seen the high measurable guys get out performed by players who dont look great but play way above what the stats say they should.

    I love this thread... (y)
     
  10. JHeb

    JHeb Sooner Magic

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    My only CPU needs are C and OLB...One of each. So, if I did as the CPU tells me, I'd only offer two guys.
     
  11. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    Just a bit of a follow up here ...

    My only worry here is that the star rating might be tied to the rate at which guys advance. I've seen plenty of three star 79's and five star 78's to know that recruiting isn't for the window shopper.

    But, will that five star always out-develop the three?

    Personally, I prefer shopping the threes because they give me the freedom to take exactly who I want, instead of playing with maybes. I like to compete for the guys I really want, but I'm not going to dump a bunch of time into a guy I don't really want just because he's a bonus guy. Looking at this year's bunch, I may not get any. That's just how the board looks.

    I figure, if I plan my roster well, I can get a bunch of guy who, after a redshirt year, are probably good backups, and after two seasons, can compete for starting jobs, or be that fourth LB, third HB, fifth WR, or Nickelback. Three seasons in, they're established starters.

    The way I see it, if three-quarters of my recruits can do this, the other one-quarter can be either studs who play right away, or duds who never develop at all.

    This is my overall recruiting strategy, and it's why I am seldom ga-ga over any single player. However, I did get the guys I was perhaps most excited about last year (my two MLB's).

    And to answer jello's question, I am going back to the 4-3, or maybe a multiple D. My 3-4 gave up too many rushing yards last year. I'm going back to the big D-line this year.
     
  12. DatNDaz

    DatNDaz Walk On

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    I'm not positive, but I think this is one area that EA did very well in. I think ratings/ranking generally mean something, but they're not always dead on. I think an 80 rated 5* will out-progress an 80 rated 3*, but I don't think it's always the case. I haven't directly tested that, but it's my sense from many years of playing the game.

    AG, I think your method is a good one. I try to go somewhere in between, but more often than not the 5's and 4's look better than the 3's. And the 3's that look good usually have some competition.
     
  13. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    True. The fives are always a safe bet, and fours usually are. Threes are a bit more risky, but you can usually tell which ones are going to start out rated higher. Fours and fives have less of a gap between good and bad, I think, so the ratings info we're given on the three star guys swings by larger amounts, and therefore makes it easier to identify the bad ones.

    My point is that I wouldn't want an all four and five star class. I would actually pass on a stud depending on what I already have, for fear of the extra work of having to recruit that position again after a transfer.

    This is the same reason why I stay away from guys who value playing time, since they won't wait - they'll bail if you don't play them right away. Now, if I have a need, and the recruit is a top guy, I'll still go after him, but those preferences matter.

    I'd like to get two fives and one or two bonus fours per year, based on a fifteen or sixteen player class. 2-9-5 would be an ideal class for me in most years, if I could get the guys at the positions I wanted them in.

    I won't hit those numbers this year ... at least not in season.
     
  14. Blaza

    Blaza In Arsene Wenger I Trust

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    Do you have any experience on how long a player usually waits for a transfer? With my 5-star QB, I'd really like to red-shirt him his first year and get him onto the field his RS-Fresh year. If I recall correctly he had Very High for his playing time pitch. Worth the risk?
     
  15. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    He should be our guinea pig. Redshirt him and let us know what happens, please. :D
     
  16. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    It seems like ever year I have a 3 star in the top 5 of my recruiting board and this year is no different.
     
  17. Archie Griffin

    Archie Griffin Walk On

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    There's just no way to know. I can say players who value time tend to transfer without it, but I can't say whether or not a redshirt will trigger a transfer. Bury him on the depth chart, though, and you're pretty sure to trigger one.
     
  18. Blaza

    Blaza In Arsene Wenger I Trust

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    LOL, I can't bro he is Tim Tebow-lite.
     
  19. JHeb

    JHeb Sooner Magic

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    I'm in the exact same boat and as of right now, he's taking a redshirt then next year he'll fight for the starting spot with Landry Jones and Drew Allen.
     

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