The Draft and Draft Guides

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by Shaun Mason, Jan 16, 2013.

  1. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    TMFL

    Everyone is aware (or should be) that we are not permitted to use the various draft guides floating around on the internet. Last time we drafted, we went back and looked at a number of things. This has been done in the other Madden leagues as well.

    Things I will be looking for:
    • You reaching early in the draft or reaching far above draft projection for players with Quick or Superstar development.
    • You getting "lucky" with high development players at a frequency that far exceeds the average of the league.
    I just want to make something clear:
    • There is no way to find Quick/Superstar development players through scouting except for scouting their development.
    • The probability that you spent 5K of points on players development rating and hit with a frequency that you "know who the good players are" is about the same as willing the lottery.
    If you end up with a shit ton of those guys by using a draft guide, I'm not going to buy that you scouted awareness. I know there is no correlation between the two, I've verified, and my sources are better than yours. We have some very smart guys in this league who do data analysis for a living, you will not fool us. Last time I was lenient because I hadn't confirmed there was no way to find those players, but now I have.

    I trust you guys to be honest. Last time I was suspicious of some people. Please do not make me remove you from the league because you don't have the will power to be honest.

    Thank you for your time,
    Shaun
     
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  2. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    To add: I'm not saying you can't draft a guy early if he grades well for you. I expect people to scout and find gems. Less than 8% of players in each class have Superstar development. It is very, very hard to draft 20% of those guys by accident.

    If you think you've figured out a way to find them, I'm interested to hear how in a PM.
     
  4. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    Understood. Now I feel dumb telling people about the awareness thing considering you just said there is no correlation.
     
  5. Masler

    Masler Moderator

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    I had no idea there were draft guides.

    read and signed.
     
  6. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    I know that isn't true because I drafted a Superstar fullback last year with F awareness. Since awareness factors into overall, high awareness usually means high relative overall, but that doesn't necessarily correlate to development.
     
  7. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    Oh gotcha. Yeah I never made any assumptions about development and awareness being related. I just had found that High awareness tends to lead to high overall, which I see now is correct.
     
  8. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    overall is overrated :)
     
  9. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    Not to a superficial asshole like myself (y)
     
  10. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    I have made full well known AS SOON AS I found out that this was our draft class, that I am familiar with this class. I have drafted some guys and I have seen every player's final attributes that I ever cared to look at after the fact. What I have not done is look at who has superstar or quick or whatever outside of the guys I drafted personally. That being said, its ridiculous to think that I can't pick out which players are "good" when I literally have my own personal draft research sitting in another file on my console. If I need to produce that in some way, I will do that if it helps prove my point.

    I do NOT know which guys have what progression outside of a select few that I've drafted personally. But I do know what guys final ratings are, and that may or may not correlate to a higher success rate, I don't know for sure. Personally I don't even care what a guy's progression is - we are only playing another 3 seasons and the difference between a 75ovr guy with superstar progression and a 80ovr guy with average progression should be fairly minimal.

    To put it simply, I will be pretty upset if I am somehow targeted as someone who cheated, even when I've given full disclosure that I know this draft class very well, well before the fact. I mean, what am I supposed to do, purposefully draft guys I know nothing about? To me this just seems like a situation waiting to blow up in my face.
     
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  11. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Wait... So what you are saying is that you have played this game so much (but I only thought you played in TMFL?) that you recognize all the names AND know all their ratings??

    This is laughable.
     
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  12. Matrix Monkey

    Matrix Monkey Walk On

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    I thought the names were randomized?
     
  13. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    What I am saying is that I have a solo league in year.... I dont know 7 or something and I completed this very same draft in that file. What that means is I can literally go back and reference every single player to see what their ratings turn out to be. I have not made an entire draft guide like you're probably thinking, but for key positions that I'm targeting I definitely went back and looked at guys here or there to see how they end up.

    If that was against the rules then punish me now, there's nothing I can do to rectify it.

    *edit*
    Again, I cannot look at people's progression unless I drafted them myself. Which is only a couple guys obviously.
     
    Last edited: Jan 16, 2013
  14. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Is this confirmed?
     
  15. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    That's no different than saving an online dynasty offline and looking at recruit ratings after the season -____- dirty and cheap.
     
  16. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    The difference being I didn't do this after learning what draft we were getting in the TMFL.

    I had this solo file going long before the TMFL reboot.
     
  17. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    Pretty sure we wouldnt have this issue if they were. I'm almost positive they arent.
     
  18. LSUTRUTH

    LSUTRUTH The one and only

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    ok. I have yet to draft a guy with quick or superstar pot :) Go Me
     
  19. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    My question is about the projected ratings. I mean because I've scouted some guys that I'm going bonkers over, look back at their projections and wonder just how in the holy hell they're projected where they're at. My concern is that if I really want a guy, what's considered reaching? Drafting a 2nd rounder at 30? Drafting a 5th rounder in the 3rd rounder?

    I know the Golden Rule of don't be a douche, but in this circumstance, what qualifies of being a douche?
     
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  20. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    I agree with this but I largely am going to ignore it. I have been building my own draft board, I don't care what the projections say. If I think a guy is a 1st round talent and he's rated as a 5th rounder, I'm taking him.
     
  21. Gravity

    Gravity Hey, I'm Batman

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    Pretty sure someone took a 4th round WR 7th in the old file. If it is justified then I dont see the issue. It is very easy to scout a position of need extensively.
     
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  22. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Don't worry about the projected ratings. Our only concern is the development trait. That's it.
     
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  23. Matrix Monkey

    Matrix Monkey Walk On

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    That was me. He was one of 2 WRs in the class with B or higher in catch stats and release (the other being a projected Top 10 pick). My whole goal of that draft was to get a big bodied WR as I was the Rams and had traded for Torrey Smith to be my speed receiver/deep threat. I figured the other receiver would be gone by my pick (he was) so I took him. I scouted both receivers extensively and when I figured I'd have to move up to get the the Top 10 WR I unlocked the progression on the 4th rounder and found out it was Superstar. I didn't want to risk losing out on the one player I wanted so I grabbed him.
     
  24. hammerhead1010

    hammerhead1010 Walk On

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    Haha I have fallen at my fair share of UK tailgating. Never in the game though.
     
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  25. Danthraxxx

    Danthraxxx Walk On

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    People still play NCAA ? :eek:
     

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