TLY to NFL Stats & Scoring Comparison

Discussion in 'The Longest Yard' started by BlyGilmore, Sep 25, 2012.

  1. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    * NFL averages gathered from Pro Football Reference and encompass stats from the 2011 season. Stats are per team, per game. So 22 points means each team scored 22 on average, each team had 1 INT on average, etc.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
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  2. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    pretty interesting that right now the away team is scoring 5 more points a game than the home team. I'm going to enter the other stats when I get home from work tonight.
     
  3. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    These are real life stats, not tly yes?
     
  4. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    The NFL average line is what we're hoping to get close to. below that will be filled in with TLY stats so we can compare. The scores are those reported in the forums through week two.
     
  5. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    Did some stats

    Week 1 averages

    per QB avg

    272 yards 2.16 TDs and 1.97 picks

    Per Game avg

    544 yards 4.31 Tds 3.94 picks - these are combining both QBs so pretty much per QB avg x2

    Week 2

    251 yards 1.97 tds and 2.00 ints

    per game

    502.88 yards 3.94 tds 4 ints
     

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    Last edited: Sep 25, 2012
  6. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    I'd be interested to see yards per completion, % passing, sacks. Which perhaps i can do later.
     
  7. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    yeah clearly INTs are out of control. And based on the recaps we've had so far, I think that's skewing the scores two fold. First, the team getting the picks, in addition to the ones they run in for a TD, are also getting a shortfield. Second, teams are getting down by 2/3 TDs early and from that point on the game is a track meet.
     
  8. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    info from weeks one and two are in there. some crazy int totals in there. a 7. couple of 6s. some 5s. nuts. (NFL record is 8 in a game btw).

    Sacks is dead on.

    Passing is a smidge too prolific. And running is about half a yard a carry off.

    My guess is, though, if we take some of those INTs away things mellow out a bit.
     
  9. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    I am guessing the reason for high amount of INTs are due to usering, users are rewarded for ints and makes plays better on the ball.
     
  10. Randiesel75

    Randiesel75 Walk On

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    Yes. So, you couple that with the fact that I (Mark Sanchez) suck at passing, and the interceptions are going to stay high.
     
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  11. nellycuz

    nellycuz I'm an educated fool w/ $$ on my mind.

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    I agree, usering on INTs shouldn't be allowed!!




    Only kidding but man some DBs have great hands and rarely drop a pick (mine included). I kind of like it though...
     
  12. TheRealHalupka

    TheRealHalupka Walk On

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    Nice to see that we are pretty close to the real thing besides INTs. I agree with nellycuz with liking that DBs rarely drop an easy pick. If the QB makes a bad mistake and throws into coverage he should be picked off.

    Look at Cam Newton against the Giants, made bad decisions and throws. As a result, threw a bunch of INTs.
     
  13. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    btw here's another way of showing out out of whack INTs are. last season the nfl averaged 1 INT every 34 pass attempts.

    Right now in we're at 1 INT every 13 pass attempts.
     
  14. Ace847

    Ace847 Walk On

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    It could just be early season rust....I threw 6 int week one and was very unfamiliar with the offensive playbook and made some really bad decisions. The last couple of games I have cut it down to only 1 interception in week 2 and none in week 3. I credit that to better grasp of the playbook and better decision making. Slowing down the pace of the game by taking the advice of the commissioners should also cut down on excessive int's.
     
  15. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    possibly. we're going to take a look at the stats after week three and see where we are. I do think a tweak needs to be made - the question is how much?
     
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  16. AgenT Smith

    AgenT Smith Walk On

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    For the record, we currently have 3 QBs over 1000 yards right now, to only one in the NFL (Matt Stafford probably would have 1,000 too if he didn't get hurt), and 4 other QBs over 900 compared to 4 in the NFL; those 5 are barely over 900 (913, 905, 904, 904) while we haven't even completed the entire Week 3.

    Also, the highest YPA in the NFL is Cam Newton with 9.61, and only one other QB is over 9 (A. Dalton, 9.13). We have currently 16 QBs at or ABOVE that mark. In fact, just so you can compare total numbers (rounded to match M13 + only qualifying QBs for M13):

    NFL yards per attempt: 9.6, 9.1, 8.6, 8.4, 8.3, 7.8, 7.8, 7.5, 7.5, 7.5 (This is the top 10 in the NFL, according to ESPN - Jake Locker being number 10 at 7.51 YPA)

    TLY yards per attempt: 13.8, 13.3, 12.7, 12.1, 11.9, 11.8, 11.6, 11, 10.9, 10.7 (Top 10 ends here. We haven't even gotten to the NFL average yet...), 10.5, 10.4, 10.2, 10.1, 9.8, 9.6 (16th QB finally meets teh NFL high), 9.2, 9.1, 8.7, 8.6, 8.4, 8.2, 8.1, 8.1, 7.8, 7.6, 2 players with 7.5.

    This means that half the league is above the NFL high for yards per attempt, while nearly the entire league is above or at 7.5 YPA - where Jake Locker currently is in the Top 10.

    Also something to throw in - the Pack last year only averaged 9.25 per attempt. I say only because they were the only team to average MORE than 9 yards per attempt. Most teams averaged in the 6-7 range. Even Matt Stafford averaged only 7.6 YPA. The Super Bowl winning Giants

    These numbers are subject to change since everyone hasn't played their game. But it still means these numbers are too high IMO. The fact that it's SO many teams leads me to believe the issue is defensive-related. I think it's a combination of the game favoring the passing game, possibly sliders, and how we call plays on defense.

    Also, and I'm not sure if people most people realize, but deep passes are typically the "last" option in a play so-to-speak. Really, you only throw it if it's there and if more immediate options aren't available, or on a PA play. Teams just don't run streaks and bomb it out. Even on 2 minute drives, teams don't consistently run Verts. So I think if we're gonna make changes we have to look there.
     
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  17. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    I wonder if there is a way to bump up the defensive AI for coverage, pursuit angles and tone down the INTs. I think the defense sucks on these settings right now, only thing is the high amount of INTs. You can get chunk of yards at a time and a good user will get huge INT numbers.

    Issue is,if you bump up the defense, INTs will get even higher.
     
  18. AgenT Smith

    AgenT Smith Walk On

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    Since Week 3 is virtually over, I thought I'd go ahead and compare the Run/pass ratios of TLY teams with the 2011 NFL ratios.

    First, these are the ratios from the 2011 NFL season. There are somewhat more details on this site, but I just grabbed the teams and ratios. NOTES:

    • Detroit had a 2:1 ratio favoring the PASS - highest in NFL
    • Denver Tebows had the highest run % at 54%
    • Only 4 teams ran the ball more than they passed it
    • Jacksonville was one of them, yet they still (somehow) finished with a 51/49 favoring the PASS

    Team NFL Run/Pass Ratios (Rounded)
    Detroit 66% Pass
    Tampa Bay 64% Pass
    Tennessee 62% Pass
    New Orleans 61% Pass
    Washington 61% Pass
    Arizona 61% Pass
    Buffalo 61% Pass
    Green Bay 60% Pass
    NY Giants 60% Pass
    Dallas 60% Pass
    Indianapolis 60% Pass
    St. Louis 60% Pass
    New England 59.5% Pass
    Cleveland 59% Pass
    San Diego 58% Pass
    Carolina 58% Pass
    Atlanta 58% Pass
    Pitsburgh 57% Pass
    NY Jets 57% Pass
    Philadelphia 57% Pass
    Seattle 56% Pass
    Baltimore 56% Pass
    Minnesota 55.5% Pass
    Cincy 55% Pass
    Oakland 54% Pass
    Chicago 53% Pass
    Miami 53% Pass
    Kansas City 52% Pass
    Jacksonville 51% Pass
    San Fran 50/50 Even
    Houston 52% RUN
    Denver (Tebow) 54% RUN


    As you can see, nearly every team passes more than they run. I think it should be that way in TLY, although really I think it's more important that teams don't go over these high numbers (66% pass, 54% run). I also think that Denver number is an extreme. Just my take though.

    I'll look at our current numbers and post them later. It takes a while to enter numbers in a chart lol.
     
  19. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

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    Jahvid Best averaging 11 ypc?

    Quit cheesin HarkTheSound :p (I keed)
     
    Last edited: Sep 27, 2012
  20. HarkTheSound

    HarkTheSound Walk On

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    One of those games was simmed and Best still put up crazy stats lol. Speed kills (y)
     
  21. AgenT Smith

    AgenT Smith Walk On

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    We shall see soon enough (y) That week 17 game could be interesting.
     
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  22. AgenT Smith

    AgenT Smith Walk On

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    I havent fully looked yet but here are the ratios of the top 3 passing teams and rushing teams. NOTE: The Lions are the top rushing team and 3rd best passing team, so I won't count them in passing. I also included the Eagles in rushing because of the Chiefs' "situation."

    TOP 3 PASSING

    Steelers: 60% passing team
    Broncos: 53% passing team
    Dolphins: 58% passing team

    RUSHING

    Lions: 42% Rushing team
    Raiders: 54% Run
    Jaguars: 51% Run

    The Steelers are the top passing team in TLY at over 1,100, yet they've also run for over 400 yards. That's not bad really, considering the real-life Detroit Lions have passed for 1,035 yards between Stafford and Hill and rushed for 306 yards. They've done it on 135 attempts and 80 rushes, or a 63% passing rate, so eh, that's not bad.

    Broncos are what's weird to me. They're over 1,000 yards passing, yet they've only thrown the ball 82 times. Compare to Eli Manning who leads NFL in yards. Eli has 1,011 yards with 118 attempts. He's completed as many passes almost as TLY Peyton has THROWN, yet TLY Peyton has 29 more yards. The Broncos have also ran the ball almost equally as much as they've thrown it, yet the NFL Giants have a 62% pass rating. Weird.

    It's almost the same thing in Miami. In fact, Reggie Bush is 2nd in the NFL in Rushing Attempts (68), 4th in yards (404), and yet Ryan Tannehill has over 1000 yards passing on 100 attempts. To compare, Marshawn Lynch has 72 carries in the NFL. Russell Wilson has 75 passing attempts for only 434 yards in the NFL. Another comparison: Arian Foster has 79 carries for 294 yards in the NFL. Schaub has 96 pass attempts but only 751 yards. (YPA is another problem, which I posted about above, and I feel I know the problem to that...)

    The Lions only run the ball 42% of the time, yet they lead the NFL in Rushing yards (by 120 over the Chiefs) and Rushing TDs...

    The Jags stats are comparable to the NFL Seahawks, except Gabbert in TLY has twice as many yards as R. Wilson in Seattle. And the Seahawks have thrown the ball the least amount of times.

    I added the Raiders instead of Chiefs because I thought their stats were interesting. Darren McFadden leads NFL in Rushing Attempts and averages 135 yards a game. Carson Palmer has only thrown the ball 71 times and averages 283 yards a game. Extrapolate that to a 16 game season:

    Darren McFadden would finish with 2,208 yards rushing. Carson Palmer would finish with 4,528 yards and 48 TDs. That's not right at all. Think about it...The Tebow-led Broncos ran at the same percentage, and that was because of a deficiency at QB; that team ran for 2632 TEAM yards and threw for 2434 TEAM yards with only 20 TDs. McFadden is on pace to match that ALONE, and Palmer is on pace to almost DOUBLE the passing numbers himself.

    I gotta look into the offenses more, but I'm not sure what contributes more - Offensive playcalling/gameplay or Defensive playcalling/gameplay. It's easier to pass than ever, yet I think guys aren't being conservative enough on defense. One more thing I wanna check is the amount of punts a game.

    And I'm not trying to call anyone out either. Just looking at numbers...they never lie, right?
     
  23. Kidofcrash23

    Kidofcrash23 Walk On

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    Sh1ts bout to go down now!!

    Ok Jk.

    Here is my take on my team since you mentioned the Raiders.

    game 1

    Palmer - 18 attempts 210 yards
    Mcfadden - 18 carries 105 yards

    I was up all game since chargers threw a bunch of picks. I ran a total of 44 plays that game if my mathematicals are correct.

    Game 2 vs dolphins, i was down 2nd half, but still close game

    palmer 19 attempts 165 yards
    dmac 27 caries 221 yards. 100 of those yards came on two carries late in 3rd quarter and last one to close out the game in the 4th to put me up 2 possessions. i won 48-33.

    i ran a total of 45 plays

    Game 3 vs steelers

    palmer - 34 attemps 473 yards
    dmac 25 carries 79 yards

    in this game, i couldn't run, but i kept at it. I attempted more passes because i was down 17-0 in the 1st and down 21 and 24 in the 3rd and 4th quarters at one point.

    i ran a total of 59 plays

    If you look at the end numbers, you might go..hmmmmmmm, but if you look at the stats from game to game, you wont see anything eye popping. The passing number is large cause of my game against the steelers where i had to keep throwing.

    My running stats was because of game 2 and the two huge runs i had in the 2nd half. if you take those two runs, im at 25 carries and about 120 yards.

    So i averaged 49 plays in three games, which isnt unreasonable. I know you are not calling anybody out, I am just giving perspective on my numbers.
     
  24. AgenT Smith

    AgenT Smith Walk On

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    At the same time, the numbers are still too high. You're running the ball at the same rate as last year's Broncos, yet you're on pace to throw for huge numbers. Not trying to call you out, just think you shouldn't be passing for as many yards based on how much you run the ball.

    But, that's why I think it's on the defenses more now. I don't think teams are playing conservatively enough. I think people are playing high risk/high reward defense. That's why you see QBs throw for 400 yards and still throw 4-6 INTs, but on a consistent basis. Even though there are a couple teams that are consistently in shootouts or putting up the same relative stats. I have to look more into it, but this is my theory/reasoning.

    It'll be easier to analyze halfway through the year, but honestly teams don't wanna give up huge yardage, then play to force a three and out, not necessarily to force a turnover. I have to check my stats though to be sure, but I remember my games against dj illmatic 23, BlyGilmore, dakota7, and nellycuz and recchem2000 being close games. And yeah I tagged you guys for comments on our games, even though I played Giants, Broncos, and Browns in preseason.
     
  25. BlyGilmore

    BlyGilmore It's All In The Hips!

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    The Yards Per Attempt thing is always higher in Madden/NCAA. One of those situations where its just how the game is played, and usually offset by a bit lower completion percentage.

    As for the big outliers in stats, hoping some of that is just from fluke games and the numbers will come down as teams play more games and defenses get better. Also, to be frank, if some of the numbers continue on the trend they're on now, the owners won't be around until the end of the season regardless.
     

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