TMFL '13 Draft - Team 11

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by Shaun Mason, Jun 14, 2012.

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  1. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Tonight we have less of a math problem (though it is at it's heart) and more of a brain teaser.

    The person who answers this correctly, and provides the best explanation (as decided by me) will earn the right to know if they are in the TFML and their team. If the person is NOT in the TMFL, I will choose a team to reveal tomorrow night.

    Deadline
    6/15/12 - 5PM

     
  2. niuhuskie224

    niuhuskie224 Walk On

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    I would take the other door. I had a 33.3% chance of choosing right orignally. After you you open one, and re offer me, it is now 67% if I choose to switch. So I take the other door and the 33% extra chance you just gave.
     
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  3. niuhuskie224

    niuhuskie224 Walk On

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  4. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    It doesn't matter. After revealing the card as a not in, the others each have a 50% chance of being the in card. The one you currently have has just as much of a chance at being the in card as the other remaining card.
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2012
  5. Keller

    Keller The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

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    I'm not exactly sure but I want to say that sounds correct.
     
  6. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    I understand your proposition. I won't be helping, I'll just evaluate tomorrow night. This is an 50/50 answer, the explanation is more important than the answer.
     
  7. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

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    Like Mustang said...when you get down to two cards it can go either way.

    I say stick with your gut and stay with the card you chose first. Don't be all wishy washy like Keller always is.
     
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  8. Hova

    Hova Live Action. YiYiYi!

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    You raise my percentage of success to 50/50 by revealing that card. So it does not matter what card I choose so stay with the firsttt
     
  9. Ghost

    Ghost Before the rollieee!

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    Penis
     
  10. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Things you love to put in your mouth for $100?
     
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  11. JFace907

    JFace907 Ron F'n Swanson

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    I say i am better off sticking with the card i drew. There was a reason i drew that card. Whether it was devine intervention or just a gut feeling i stick with it. I'm a firm believer that things happen for a reason.
     
  12. niuhuskie224

    niuhuskie224 Walk On

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    You start with a 33% chance of selecting the correct card because there are 3 cards. If I choose card 1, i am at 33% of selecting a right answer. If you tell me that card 3 has "not" i must reevaluate the equation.

    So now my equation is

    Card 1 - 33% chance

    Card 2 & 3 - 67% chance (because I know card 3 is bad)

    Sooooo I choose card 2 now because I have a greater chance essentially.
     
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  13. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

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    Your chances aren't any better. They are the same for the 2 remaining cards.
     
  14. niuhuskie224

    niuhuskie224 Walk On

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    The odds change. I promise you.
     
  15. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

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    How would they both not be the exact same?
     
  16. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    You guys let other people answer without arguing it out. If you want to talk, do it in a PM.
     
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  17. I Peench

    I Peench Caught in the hustle

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    Referred to as a "Monty Hall Problem". You have to take into consideration variable change.

    Grrr..trying to update before the pick. Had a brain fart last night

    Edit: Going to get more quantitative here, just wanted to get this down
     
    Last edited: Jun 15, 2012
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  18. Bondzai

    Bondzai Your Mom's Best Friend

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    I'll sit back and read everyone else's opinion. I Peench's explanation sounds logical.
     
  19. NDCOLTS1979

    NDCOLTS1979 I love you red solo cup

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    You are better off staying with the card you chose. Most of the time your best choice is your first choice unless its a wife. :) i learned that one the hard way. So i have a 50 percent chance of getting the in and out part of why i would take and keep the choice I made and just hope i picked correctly but never second guess your first choice
     
  20. Ghost

    Ghost Before the rollieee!

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    Troll university is the way to go
     
  21. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    To Ban City?
     
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  22. TurboTrigga

    TurboTrigga Walk On

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    The original odd of selecting the card "In the TMFL" is 1/3. Once you revel one of the "Not in the TMFL" your odds change.

    - Most believe your odd goto 50/50 or 1/2 of having the "in the TMFL" card but your odds are not interdependent on each card flip

    - In reality, your odds are now 2/3 because the original odds of 1/3 jump as you reveled one of the three cards in that probability so you now have been given two chances to choose the "In the TMFL" card. Once the card is reveled, you now have a 66% or 2/3 chance of your original card being the "In the TMFL card"


    If you select card 'A' originally and Shaun revels card 'C' for you. If N is "not in the TMFL" and Y is "In the TMFL"

    - The probability that Card C (NN) is "not in the TMFL" is 1
    - The probability that Card A (NY) is "not in the TMFL" is 1/2
    - The probability that Card B (YY) is "not in the TMFL" is 0


    (P(C)/P(A)+P(B)+P(C)) = (1/(1+0+.5)) = 2/3

    SO YOU DO SWITCH!!!
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2012
  23. Jmustang1968

    Jmustang1968 Walk On

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    Huskies is right actually. It defies convential logic, but if you map out the scenarios, you have a 2/3 chance of winning by switching. You only win if you guess right the 1st time so 1/3. If the other card is revealed as a not then there is a 2/3 chance of the other being an in...
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2012
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  24. Ghost

    Ghost Before the rollieee!

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    Meh now that I think about , I take that back :D
     
  25. hoppedupford

    hoppedupford Walk On

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    It all depends on the person choosing the card. If the person choosing the card has not been chosen to be in tmfl, than there will be no card saying in the tmfl. Which in return means that it does not matter which card you choose.
     
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