TMFL Computer Rankings

Discussion in 'TMFL' started by aarondramp, Feb 4, 2013.

  1. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    TMFL

    So I'm a stat nerd and numbers guy, so I thought I would bring something to TMFL (since I don't get to do many game recaps). So here are the TMFL Computer Rankings based on Pro Football Talk's "Simple Rating System."

    The concept is pretty simple (hence the name) and you can read more about it at the above link or at this one from Smart Football. It essentially uses a team's margin of victory as their rating but then adjusts for their opponents to determine a strength of schedule. For example, my team (the Cardinals) have an MOV of -1.43, and my opponents have an average MOV of -.96, so my actual rating would be -2.39. Well, now that my rating has updated, so has every other team. I put this into Excel, and it basically runs it over and over until the numbers stop adjusting. It would be good to skim through the links as they explain in detail what the system does and doesn't do as well as limits to it. It doesn't account for wins and losses and only uses margin of victory as the rating for a team. It isn't bad for a league like this since homefield doesn't really matter, but sims would pretty much eff it up, as those are weighted the same as other games. They will be more reliable once every team has had their bye weeks over and has the same number of games

    tl; dr - this computer ranking uses margin of victory to assign a rating to each team.

    So here they are through Week 7; I'll make a new post each week with the updated rankings. The first chart is the rankings by week, and the second has the details for this week.

    TMFL power rankings week 7.PNG
     
    Last edited: Feb 4, 2013
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  2. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    I love this. I reference SRS often. Also, as I suspected, my CLE team is pretty good despite being 2-4.
     
  3. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    You are ranked above the 5-2 Falcons (though I think that is due mostly to their slow start as you can see by their ascension in the rankings from 28 in Week 5 to 13 in Week 7.
     
  4. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    Stupid, goddamn sims and desyncs when up against numero uno. :(
     
  5. Shaun Mason

    Shaun Mason Somebody you used to know.

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    Two sims and two losses less than 3 points will do that.=(
     
  6. Philstyle3005

    Philstyle3005 Walk On

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  7. Matrix Monkey

    Matrix Monkey Walk On

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    2-4 teams represent!
     
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  8. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Nice work Aaron.
     
  9. Black Republican

    Black Republican TMFL Commish -- **ISYMFS** --

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    Great work!
     
  10. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    TMFL
    Computer Rankings through Week 8

    Biggest risers:
    1. Houston +4.86 - thanks to a 51-3 sim win over Tennessee (I'm assuming; I didn't see anything in the scheduling thread)
    2. Carolina +2.87 - even in a loss as their SOS went up by 1.6, and they played the Saints close
    3. Green Bay +2.39 - because he got to play the CPU
    4. Kansas City +2.19 - also thanks to a sim win
    5. Minnesota +2.19 - CPU numbers had them losing by 8, but they won by 2

    Biggest fallers:
    1. Tennessee -4.45 - see above with Houston
    2. Jacksonville -2.09 - lost by 8 to Atlanta when the CPU numbers had them even
    3. Cincinnati -1.67 - a 24 point loss to Cleveland brings them down
    4. Seattle -1.62 - CPU numbers had them five points better than Arizona, but they lost by 10

    TMFL power rankings week 8.PNG
     
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  11. bawvu97

    bawvu97 Let's Goooooo Mountaineers

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    Nerdalicious
     
  12. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    That's what I would expect from someone from West Virginia.
     
  13. bawvu97

    bawvu97 Let's Goooooo Mountaineers

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    Well I am from md just went to college there but close enough
     
  14. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    Only kidding; but yeah, I guess it should've said, "that's what I would expect from someone that went to school at West Virginia."
     
  15. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    Nerdgasmic.
     
  16. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    TMFL

    Week 9 TMFL Computer Rankings

    I added in the division totals, too, so we can see how their divisions are measuring up to each other.

    Risers
    1. Detroit (+2.54) - It's tough to imagine a team at the top moving this far, but it wasn't even due to their CPU win. Their SOS went up 1.42 because they played a tough team (in terms of numbers) and won big.
    2. Minnesota (+1.71) - Their SOS went up (despite being one of the highest already) 2.07. Their SOS is 1.53 over the 2nd toughest schedule and 3.00 over the 3rd toughest. That's tough to overcome.
    3. San Francisco (+1.66) - They were 10 point computer underdogs this week but won by 13. I think even you morons can understand how that will boost your rankings.
    4. Tampa Bay (+1.61) - They were in a similar position to Detroit; their SOS went up 1.83 due to playing New Orleans who they beat by 14.
    5. Buffalo (+1.61) - The opposite of Detroit and Tampa Bay; their SOS fell off 1.39, but their 38 point win over Jacksonville boosts them up.

    Fallers
    1. Cleveland (-4.04) - See above about San Francisco. Their SOS also fell off by 2.02.
    2. Jacksonville (-3.54) - See above about Buffalo. Their SOS actually rose significantly (due to a tough opponent), but it doesn't matter if you get crushed.
    3. Pittsburgh (-3.20) - They were favorites but like their division foe Cleveland, they lost to an NFC West team.
    4. Baltimore (-2.80) - Rough week for the AFC North (more on that later) - they were bad against opponents they were supposed to beat, so their SOS really dropped.

    Divisions
    As I said, the AFC North had a rough week as their combined SRS fell off by 11.71 total. The AFC South didn't fare much better with a drop of 9.20. Looking at the totals, it appears the divisions are truly split into the haves (AFC East, AFC West, NFC North, NFC South) and the have nots (AFC North, AFC South, NFC East, NFC West).

    TMFL power rankings week 9.PNG
     
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  17. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    look at the FNG in Tampa making some noise
     
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  18. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    Oh I'm sorry. Is that the AFC West with two of the top six teams in these rankings and the second toughest division outside of the AFC East?

    Good. Shit.

    EDIT: Oh, and in the past five weeks, the AFC West was more likely to be number 1 than not. The other two weeks we're number two. Damn weak division, huh guys?
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2013
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  19. SimFBallCritic

    SimFBallCritic Walk On

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    This is good stuff man.
     
  20. fuzzyl0gic

    fuzzyl0gic No new friends

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    Talk about a down year for the AFC South.
     
  21. aarondramp

    aarondramp ten thousand words

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    It could be worse; you could be the...oh, wait. Yep, you're the worst. Although, I think some of that is based on Tennessee not being around.
     
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  22. The Richuation

    The Richuation Walk On

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    <---- worst team in worst division
     
  23. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    not according to these rankings you aren't ;)

    Also, fuzzyl0gic ... Houston is coming for you. Just as soon as we are done getting whipped by antcap24 , Houston is poised to make a run for the division title again!
     
  24. Baron

    Baron "I'm PFP's reckoning."

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    This might have been threatening... in the last file.
     
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  25. Cheez

    Cheez TSO's 1,000,000th Poster

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    if not for a couple plays in the fourth quarter of our game, you would be forced to take me as a real threat.
     

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