What's wrong with the Brewers?

Discussion in 'The Dugout - OOTP Online League' started by PAgamer07, Apr 26, 2013.

  1. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    The Milwaukee Brewers were one of the best teams in The Dugout in 2019, and on paper, the 2020 team looked even better. But since the "Curse of the Welschman" they are in a tailspin. How is this possible? I thought I would take a look at some interesting statistics and try to figure out if and how they can fix it. Even though BigSmooth33 is in my division, he deserves another shot. But being 11 games back heading into the month of July, something needs to happen. Will they give up at the deadline or try to win the division?

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    The first thing we notice is just how damn lucky the Reds are. They are 5 games over their predicted record. Combine that with the 2 games under for the Brewers and you have a 7 game swing. It's possible this stabilizes, but highly unlikely without significant changes.

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    As of June 21st, the Brewers rank 9th in runs with 319. Nearly 80 runs behind the most explosive NL team, Arizona. Unfortunately, this most recent sim they lost their leadoff hitter, reigning Rookie of the Year and MVP winner LF Jason Parrish. A huge blow to a team right now struggling to score runs.

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    You will see three graphs above: HR, SLG % and OBP. Three very important stats to measure the effectiveness of the offense.

    Interestingly enough, the Brewers are 1st in the league in HR. Although Arizona is closing in, they have been 1st since the start of the season. Unfortunately the good news stops there. The second graph shows their 10th ranked slugging %. The first thing I thought of seeing this graph, was holy crap. These guys are slow. It's either all or nothing in Milwaukee and I was right. They have little to no team speed. If the ball doesn't go over the fence, this team has a hard time stretching it for an extra base hit.

    Finally... the last graph. OBP. The Brewers rank 12th in OBP. What this means to me (And I am sure someone will correct me) is that the Brewers can't get on base in front of their power hitters. Their power hitters don't have the speed to score either. RBI opportunities are very, very limited here in Milwaukee and this is a tough place to be.

    I looked at this roster for quite some time today at work. With the loss of Parrish, I don't see how they can make up these deficits.

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    As you will see... Outside of the injured Parrish, SS James Croom has the next highest wOBA on the team. And after that... it's a HUGE dropoff. They have to be disappointed with the lack of production throughout this lineup, but 3B Dan Davis is the biggest surprise here. He raked in Chicago, and now he is a shadow of his former self.

    This offense needs an infusion of speed, and someone who can get on base. It's highly possible Ryan can move some 'specs for a couple of hitters. Will this be enough? That depends on the pitching.

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    The Brewers currently rank 8th in the league in runs against. Not horrible by any means. Looking at the rotation alone, you see room for improvement though, as these guys all are better than advertised. Bradley, Hurlburt, Gallardo, Odirizzi and Nelson are one of the best rotations in the league but really haven't gone deep enough in ballgames or have been rocked. Still... as seen below their Quality Starts put them in the top 1/3 of the league

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    Obviously not at Arizona's level, but with the talent of the players in the rotation, it only has to get better. Right?

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    Well... It is. Sorta. But the biggest red flag I see with this staff is the high amount of HR allowed. This is beginning to stabilize though, and hopefully it evens out. For Ryan's sake. The amount of walks allowed is above average, as is their defense. But they have to keep the ball in the yard. The bullpen is excellent as well ranked 3rd in ERA. So their rotation is getting rocked. For further evidence we look at Career HR/9 compared to 2020 HR/9.

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    The biggest problem? David Hurlbut. After a career year in 2019 which consisted of a No-Hitter and the 2019 Cy Young, Hurlbut has become Phil Humber and it is hurting this rotation. He NEEDS to get it together.

    Conclusion:

    Their pitching is fine. David Hurlbut is going through a bad stretch right now. If they move him down to the 4th or 5th spot in the rotation, lessen the pressure and the amount of innings he gets, the staff should improve. Their defense is also good. They don't have as much range as you would like, but they are still making plays when need be and their ZR is not as attrocious as other teams in the league.

    Offensively, this is not the Brewers of 2019. They have to get guy on base, they have to be able to stretch a single into a double and they have to score Runs. This is the problem for this team. Can the players on this team with a few pieces do better? Absolutely, but it is going to cost a lot to fill these holes. The loss of Parrish hurts this team a lot more than most others. But they can find a replacement and should. The window is closing.
     
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  2. BigSmooth33

    BigSmooth33 Walk On

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    Great work man...


    Spot on too

    Hence why I'm shopping Garcia and young pups for OBP machines... Runs will come if I can get 1-3 on base.
     
  3. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    Thanks man. Took me a bit of time, but I honestly have been trying to figure out why youre having a bad year. This pretty much sums it up. Glad you enjoyed it ;)
     
  4. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    Good work, those graphs are sexy! ;)
     
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  5. abolishthefed

    abolishthefed Specializing in mediocrity

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    I was thinking 2019 was a fluke for the Brewers, more than this year is a fluke.
     
  6. Colemanchu

    Colemanchu GOAT SPLITTER

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    I wish I had that light blue team with the diamonds in it.
     
  7. goldenglove2

    goldenglove2 Walk On

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    I was wondering why the Brewers were playing as bad as they were as well. I think they have a run left in them, and not sure my team can keep up the excellence. I definitely need to make an upgrade to my lineup somewhere.
     
  8. PAgamer07

    PAgamer07 We're the ship without a storm

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    To quote Dwight Schrute false.

    I'm heavily intoxicated right now but if you look at win percentages... I'll bet they have a top 10 win percentage since 2012
     

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